The Boeing 737 MAX crisis and COVID-19 pandemic have seriously influenced the development of China’s aircraft leasing industry in the past two years. This paper applies system dynamics theory to explore the sustainable development of China’s aircraft leasing industry. It analyses the dynamic mechanism and constructs a system dynamics model. Based on China’s macroeconomic data and historical data from the financial, aviation, and leasing industries, it aims to stimulate the development of China’s aircraft leasing industry in the next five years. Through sensitivity analysis, this research finds that changes in GDP growth have the most obvious impact on the sustainable development of China’s aircraft leasing industry. Reducing the average financing cost and the income tax rate of aircraft leasing companies, increasing their investment in talent, and controlling risk will increase the market share of China’s aircraft leasing companies and promote the development of the industry. However, increasing the number of aircraft leasing companies has little effect on market share. On this basis, this paper proposes policy recommendations to promote the sustainable development of China’s aircraft leasing industry.

The sustainable development of China’s financial leasing industry is a growing concern among scholars. This paper analyzes the development data of China’s financial leasing industry from 2008–2021, using the dimensions of scale, speed, efficiency, structure, and quality. By employing principal component analysis, we construct the development index of China’s financial leasing industry and analyze the reasons for changes in the development level of the industry from the internal structure of the index. The study finds that scale serves as a key factor in the development of China’s financial leasing industry. While the contribution value of the structure factor shows fluctuations, the contribution values of the return and risk factors remain relatively stable. Using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) prediction model based on the principal component analysis, we establish the prediction model of the financial leasing industry change in the coming years. The study reveals that the financial leasing industry has entered a period of transformation, where the growth rate of its scale has dropped. Furthermore, this paper offers proposals to address the increasingly prominent asset-liability maturity mismatch problem, promote business structure optimization, enhance the contribution value of the structure factor and the income factor, and facilitate sustainable, higher-quality industry development.