Earthquake instability occurs as a result of strength loss during sliding on a fault. It has been known for over 50 years that fault compaction or dilatancy may cause significant weakening or strengthening by dramatically changing the fluid pressure trapped in faults. Despite this fundamental importance, we have no real understanding of the exact conditions that lead to compaction or dilation during nucleation or rupture. To date, no direct measurements of pore pressure changes during slip in hydraulically isolated faults have been reported. We show direct examples of fluid pressure variations during nucleation and rupture using a miniature pressure transducer embedded in an experimental fault. We demonstrate that fluids not only are significant in controlling fault behavior but can provide the dominant mechanism controlling fault stability. The effect of fluid pressure changes can exceed frictional variations predicted by rate‐ and state‐dependent friction laws, exerting fundamental controls on earthquake rupture initiation.

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. Equipped with a wealth of images of this fault system, including those of its 3D geology and 3D geometry, in addition to inferences about its interseismic creep‐rate pattern and rock‐friction behavior, we use a finite‐element computer code to perform 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. We find that the rock properties affect the locations and amount of slip produced in our simulated large earthquakes. Crucial factors that control rupture behavior in our modeling are the earthquake nucleation locations, the fault geometry, and the data that reveal where the fault system is creeping or locked. Our findings suggest that large Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras‐Northern Calaveras (RC‐H‐C‐NC) fault‐system earthquakes may result from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, but is then stopped by the creeping parts, leading to high‐magnitude‐6 earthquakes; or, from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, then cascades through some of the creeping parts, leading to magnitude‐7 earthquakes.