The Tropical Andes region includes biodiversity hotspots of high conservation priority whose management strategies depend on the analysis of forest dynamics drivers (FDDs). These depend on complex social and ecological interactions that manifest on different space–time scales and are commonly evaluated through regression analysis of multivariate datasets. However, processing such datasets is challenging, especially when time series are used and inconsistencies in data collection complicate their integration. Moreover, regression analysis in FDD characterization has been criticized for failing to capture spatial variability; therefore, alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) have been proposed, but their sensitivity to multicollinearity has not yet been solved. In this scenario, we present an innovative methodology that combines techniques to: 1) derive remote sensing time series products; 2) improve census processing with dasymetric mapping; 3) combine GWR and random forest (RF) to derive local variables importance; and 4) report results based in a clustering and hypothesis testing. We applied this methodology in the northwestern Ecuadorian Amazon, a highly heterogeneous region characterized by different active fronts of deforestation and reforestation, within the time period 2000–2010. Our objective was to identify linkages between these processes and validate the potential of the proposed methodology. Our findings indicate that land-use intensity proxies can be extracted from remote sensing time series, while intercensal analysis can be facilitated by calculating population density maps. Moreover, our implementation of GWR with RF achieved accurate predictions above the 74% using the out-of-bag samples, demonstrating that derived RF features can be used to construct hypothesis and discuss forest change drivers with more detailed information. In the other hand, our analysis revealed contrasting effects between deforestation and reforestation for variables related to suitability to agriculture and accessibility to its facilities, which is also reflected according patch size, land cover and population dynamics patterns. This approach demonstrates the benefits of integrating remote sensing–derived products and socioeconomic data to understand coupled socioecological systems more from a local than a global scale.

Monitoring long-term forest dynamics is essential for assessing human-induced land-cover changes, and related studies are often based on the multi-decadal Landsat archive. However, in areas such as the Tropical Andes, scarce data and the resulting poor signal-to-noise ratio in time series data render the implementation of automated time-series analysis algorithms difficult. The aim of this research was to investigate a novel approach that combines image compositing, multi-sensor data fusion, and postclassification change detection that is applicable in data-scarce regions of the Tropical Andes, exemplified for a case study in Ecuador. We derived biennial deforestation and reforestation patterns for the period from 1992 to 2014, achieving accuracies of 82 ± 3% for deforestation and 71 ± 3% for reforestation mapping. Our research demonstrated that an adapted methodology allowed us to derive the forest dynamics from the Landsat time series, despite the abundant regional data gaps in the archive, namely across the Tropical Andes. This study, therefore, presented a novel methodology in support of monitoring long-term forest dynamics in areas with limited historical data availability.

The Andean Amazon is an endangered biodiversity hot spot but its forest dynamics are less studied than those of the Amazon lowland and forests from middle or high latitudes. This is because its landscape variability, complex topography and cloudy conditions constitute a challenging environment for any remote-sensing assessment. Breakpoint detection with Landsat time-series data is an established robust approach for monitoring forest dynamics around the globe but has not been properly evaluated for implementation in the Andean Amazon. We analyzed breakpoint detection-generated forest dynamics in order to determine its limitations when applied to three different study areas located along an altitude gradient in the Andean Amazon in Ecuador. Using all available Landsat imagery for the period 1997–2016, we evaluated different pre-processing approaches, noise reduction techniques, and breakpoint detection algorithms. These procedures were integrated into a complex function called the processing chain generator. Calibration was not straightforward since it required us to define values for 24 parameters. To solve this problem, we implemented a novel approach using genetic algorithms. We calibrated the processing chain generator by applying a stratified training sampling and a reference dataset based on high resolution imagery. After the best calibration solution was found and the processing chain generator executed, we assessed accuracy and found that data gaps, inaccurate co-registration, radiometric variability in sensor calibration, unmasked cloud, and shadows can drastically affect the results, compromising the application of breakpoint detection in mountainous areas of the Andean Amazon. Moreover, since breakpoint detection analysis of landscape variability in the Andean Amazon requires a unique calibration of algorithms, the time required to optimize analysis could complicate its proper implementation and undermine its application for large-scale projects. In exceptional cases when data quality and quantity were adequate, we recommend the pre-processing approaches, noise reduction algorithms and breakpoint detection algorithms procedures that can enhance results. Finally, we include recommendations for achieving a faster and more accurate calibration of complex functions applied to remote sensing using genetic algorithms.

The high mining potential of the Peruvian Andes has promoted booming foreign investments. The mining activity takes place on campesino community lands and headwaters. Once the government awards a mining concession, mining companies must regularly negotiate land rent with communities over the whole duration of the mining operation, often leading to disagreements. Our research objective is to identify the mining impacts on the farming activities of campesino communities in the Junin region, central Peruvian Andes. Using a mixed-methods approach involving in-depth interviews, water and soil analysis, land-cover classification and participatory mapping, we analyzed the mining-community agreements and the mining impacts on the farming lands. We arrived at two primary conclusions. First, mining activities in terms of heavy metal concentrations impact on farming lands, although the contribution of previous and concurrent activities cannot be distinguished. Second, the diverging and short-termed interests of the involved parties which circumscribe the agreements may potentially lead to conflicts.

Academic performance (AP) is explained by a multitude of factors, principally by those related to socioeconomic, cultural, and educational environments. However, AP is less understood from a spatial perspective. The aim of this study was to investigate a methodology using a machine learning approach to determine which answers from a questionnaire-based survey were relevant for explaining the high AP of secondary school students across urban–rural gradients in Ecuador. We used high school locations to construct individual datasets and stratify them according to the AP scores. Using the Boruta algorithm and backward elimination, we identified the best predictors, classified them using random forest, and mapped the AP classification probabilities. We summarized these results as frequent answers observed for each natural region in Ecuador and used their probability outputs to formulate hypotheses with respect to the urban–rural gradient derived from annual maps of impervious surfaces. Our approach resulted in a cartographic analysis of AP probabilities with overall accuracies around 0.83–0.84% and Kappa values of 0.65–0.67%. High AP was primarily related to answers regarding the academic environment and cognitive skills. These identified answers varied depending on the region, which allowed for different interpretations of the driving factors of AP in Ecuador. A rural-to-urban transition ranging 8–17 years was found to be the timespan correlated with achievement of high AP.