Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

There is increasing need for accurate assessment of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. We aimed to develop qFibrosis, a fully-automated assessment method combining quantification of histopathological architectural features, to address unmet needs in core biopsy evaluation of fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. qFibrosis was established as a combined index based on 87 parameters of architectural features. Images acquired from 25 Thioacetamide-treated rat samples and 162 CHB core biopsies were used to train and test qFibrosis and to demonstrate its reproducibility. qFibrosis scoring was analyzed employing Metavir and Ishak fibrosis staging as standard references, and collagen proportionate area (CPA) measurement for comparison. qFibrosis faithfully and reliably recapitulates Metavir fibrosis scores, as it can identify differences between all stages in both animal samples (p<0.001) and human biopsies (p<0.05). It is robust to sampling size, allowing for discrimination of different stages in samples of different sizes (area under the curve (AUC): 0.93-0.99 for animal samples: 1-16 mm(2); AUC: 0.84-0.97 for biopsies: 10-44 mm in length). qFibrosis can significantly predict staging underestimation in suboptimal biopsies (<15 mm) and under- and over-scoring by different pathologists (p<0.001). qFibrosis can also differentiate between Ishak stages 5 and 6 (AUC: 0.73, p=0.008), suggesting the possibility of monitoring intra-stage cirrhosis changes. Best of all, qFibrosis demonstrates superior performance to CPA on all counts. qFibrosis can improve fibrosis scoring accuracy and throughput, thus allowing for reproducible and reliable analysis of efficacies of anti-fibrotic therapies in clinical research and practice.

Activation of TGFB (transforming growth factor β) promotes liver fibrosis by activating hepatic stellate cells (HSCs), but the mechanisms of TGFB activation are not clear. We investigated the role of ECM1 (extracellular matrix protein 1), which interacts with extracellular and structural proteins, in TGFB activation in mouse livers. We performed studies with C57BL/6J mice (controls), ECM1-knockout (ECM1-KO) mice, and mice with hepatocyte-specific knockout of EMC1 (ECM1Δhep). ECM1 or soluble TGFBR2 (TGFB receptor 2) were expressed in livers of mice after injection of an adeno-associated virus vector. Liver fibrosis was induced by carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) administration. Livers were collected from mice and analyzed by histology, immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization, and immunofluorescence analyses. Hepatocytes and HSCs were isolated from livers of mice and incubated with ECM1; production of cytokines and activation of reporter genes were quantified. Liver tissues from patients with viral or alcohol-induced hepatitis (with different stages of fibrosis) and individuals with healthy livers were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization. ECM1-KO mice spontaneously developed liver fibrosis and died by 2 months of age without significant hepatocyte damage or inflammation. In liver tissues of mice, we found that ECM1 stabilized extracellular matrix-deposited TGFB in its inactive form by interacting with αv integrins to prevent activation of HSCs. In liver tissues from patients and in mice with CCl4-induced liver fibrosis, we found an inverse correlation between level of ECM1 and severity of fibrosis. CCl4-induced liver fibrosis was accelerated in ECM1Δhep mice compared with control mice. Hepatocytes produced the highest levels of ECM1 in livers of mice. Ectopic expression of ECM1 or soluble TGFBR2 in liver prevented fibrogenesis in ECM1-KO mice and prolonged their survival. Ectopic expression of ECM1 in liver also reduced the severity of CCl4-induced fibrosis in mice. ECM1, produced by hepatocytes, inhibits activation of TGFB and its activation of HSCs to prevent fibrogenesis in mouse liver. Strategies to increase levels of ECM1 in liver might be developed for treatment of fibrosis.

Objective: The investigation regarding the clinical significance of quantitative hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) during chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatment is limited. The aim of this study was to determine the performance of anti-HBc as a predictor for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with peginterferon (Peg-IFN) or nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs), respectively. Design: This was a retrospective cohort study consisting of 231 and 560 patients enrolled in two phase IV, multicentre, randomised, controlled trials treated with Peg-IFN or NUC-based therapy for up to 2 years, respectively. Quantitative anti-HBc evaluation was conducted for all the available samples in the two trials by using a newly developed double-sandwich anti-HBc immunoassay. Results: At the end of trials, 99 (42.9%) and 137 (24.5%) patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion in the Peg-IFN and NUC cohorts, respectively. We defined 4.4 log ₁₀ IU/mL, with a maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity, as the optimal cut-off value of baseline anti-HBc level to predict HBeAg seroconversion for both Peg-IFN and NUC. Patients with baseline anti-HBc ≥4.4 log ₁₀ IU/mL and baseline HBV DNA <9 log ₁₀ copies/mL had 65.8% (50/76) and 37.1% (52/140) rates of HBeAg seroconversion in the Peg-IFN and NUC cohorts, respectively. In pooled analysis, other than treatment strategy, the baseline anti-HBc level was the best independent predictor for HBeAg seroconversion (OR 2.178; 95% CI 1.577 to 3.009; p<0.001). Conclusions: Baseline anti-HBc titre is a useful predictor of Peg-IFN and NUC therapy efficacy in HBeAg-positive CHB patients, which could be used for optimising the antiviral therapy of CHB.