To achieve ambitious climate goals, it is necessary to increase the rate of purposeful retrofit measures in the building sector. As a result, Energy Performance Certificates have been designed as important evaluation and rating criterion to increase the retrofit rate in the EU and Germany. Yet, today’s most frequently used and legally required methods to quantify building energy performance show low prediction accuracy, as recent research reveals. To enhance prediction accuracy, the research community introduced data-driven methods which obtained promising results. However, there are no insights in how far Energy Quantification Methods are particularly suited for energy performance prediction. In this research article the data-driven methods Artificial Neural Network, D-vine copula quantile regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression are compared with and validated by real-world Energy Performance Certificates of German residential buildings issued by qualified auditors using the engineering method required by law. The results, tested for robustness and systematic bias, show that all data-driven methods exceed the engineering method by almost 50% in terms of prediction accuracy. In contrast to existing literature favoring Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression, all tested methods show similar prediction accuracy with marginal advantages for Extreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression in terms of prediction accuracy. Given the higher prediction accuracy of data-driven methods, it seems appropriate to revise the current legislation prescribing engineering methods. In addition, data-driven methods could support different organizations, e.g., asset management, in decision-making in order to reduce financial risk and to cut expenses.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing are increasingly facing challenges of digital transformation and a shift towards cloud-based solutions to leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) or, more specifically, machine learning (ML) services. Although literature covers a variety of frameworks related to the adaptation of cloud solutions, cloud-based ML solutions in SMEs are not yet widespread, and an end-to-end process for ML cloud service selection is lacking. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic selection process of ML cloud services for manufacturing SMEs. Following a design science research approach, including a literature review and qualitative expert interviews, as well as a case study of a German manufacturing SME, this paper presents a four-step process to select ML cloud services for SMEs based on an analytic hierarchy process. We identified 24 evaluation criteria for ML cloud services relevant for SMEs by merging knowledge from manufacturing, cloud computing, and ML with practical aspects. The paper provides an interdisciplinary, hands-on, and easy-to-understand decision support system that lowers the barriers to the adoption of ML cloud services and supports digital transformation in manufacturing SMEs. The application in other practical use cases to support SMEs and simultaneously further development is advocated.