Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most diagnosed cancer in the world and the third leading cause of death. Unfortunately, when diagnosed two thirds of patients have an advanced disease for which only palliative treatment can be proposed and most likely systemic therapy. Areas covered: As of today only one systemic therapy is validated in the treatment of advanced HCC, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI): Sorafenib. Treatment options are therefore lacking. With the advent of Sorafenib other TKIs have been studied with some disappointing results. Many explanations can be found to the failure of these tested TKIs such as the underlying cirrhosis leading to rapidly serious adverse events, or trial design imperfections. Expert opinion: Taking into account these failures, new trials with more appropriate designs have led to recent success with multi-target TKIs (Regorafenib and Lenvatinib). This multi-target approach allows to overcome the molecular heterogeneity of advanced HCC which is associated with multiple simultaneously dysregulated signaling pathways. On the contrary, another lead is to study target a specific TKI such as c-MET inhibitors or TGFβR inhibitors in HCC sub-populations with promising results in early phase trials. These results will have to be validated in the ongoing phase III trials.

NAPOLI-1 (NCT01494506) was a phase III study of liposomal irinotecan (nal-IRI) plus 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin (5-FU/LV) in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy. This post hoc analysis of NAPOLI-1 aimed to develop a predictive nomogram for overall survival (OS) at 6 and 12 months. Analyses were derived from all patients in NAPOLI-1 randomized to receive nal-IRI+5-FU/LV, nal-IRI monotherapy, or 5-FU/LV combination therapy. OS was associated with baseline factors using univariate and multivariable Cox analyses. A predictive nomogram was derived and validated using a concordance index and calibration plots. The univariate analyses identified 21 independent factors that contributed to OS, with eight factors significantly associated with OS. The Karnofsky Performance Score contributed the largest number of points (100), followed by presence of liver metastasis (98) and randomization to nal-IRI+5-FU/LV (96). The other baseline factors showing effects were albumin (g/dL), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (U/mL), disease stage at diagnosis, and body mass index (kg/m²). The nomogram was used to predict the 6- and 12-month survival probability. The mean absolute errors between the observed and predicted probabilities for OS at 3, 6, and 9 months were 0.07, 0.08, and 0.07, respectively. This nomogram, based on NAPOLI-1, provides additional insight to aid decision-making for patients with mPDAC after previous gemcitabine-based therapy.