Background: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, major shortcomings in the way mental health care systems were organized were impairing the delivery of effective care. The mental health impacts of the pandemic, the recession, and the resulting social dislocation will depend on the extent to which care systems will become overwhelmed and on the strategic investments made across the system to effectively respond. Objective: This study aimed to explore the impact of strengthening the mental health system through technology-enabled care coordination on mental health and suicide outcomes. Methods: A system dynamics model for the regional population catchment of North Coast New South Wales, Australia, was developed that incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and suicidal behavior. The model reproduced historic time series data across a range of outcomes and was used to evaluate the relative impact of a set of scenarios on attempted suicide (ie, self-harm hospitalizations), suicide deaths, mental health–related emergency department (ED) presentations, and psychological distress over the period from 2021 to 2030. These scenarios include (1) business as usual, (2) increase in service capacity growth rate by 20%, (3) standard telehealth, and (4) technology-enabled care coordination. Each scenario was tested using both pre– and post–COVID-19 social and economic conditions. Results: Technology-enabled care coordination was forecast to deliver a reduction in self-harm hospitalizations and suicide deaths by 6.71% (95% interval 5.63%-7.87%), mental health–related ED presentations by 10.33% (95% interval 8.58%-12.19%), and the prevalence of high psychological distress by 1.76 percentage points (95% interval 1.35-2.32 percentage points). Scenario testing demonstrated that increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth had substantially lower impacts. This pattern of results was replicated under post–COVID-19 conditions with technology-enabled care coordination being the only tested scenario, which was forecast to reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on mental health and suicide. Conclusions: The use of technology-enabled care coordination is likely to improve mental health and suicide outcomes. The substantially lower effectiveness of targeting individual components of the mental health system (ie, increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth) reiterates that strengthening the whole system has the greatest impact on patient outcomes. Investments into more of the same types of programs and services alone will not be enough to improve outcomes; instead, new models of care and the digital infrastructure to support them and their integration are needed.

A doubling of Australian expenditure on mental health services over two decades, inflation-adjusted, has reduced prevalence of neither psychological distress nor mental disorders. Low rates of help-seeking, and inadequate and inequitable delivery of effective care may explain this partially, but not fully. Focusing on depressive disorders, drawing initially on ideas from the work of philosopher and socio-cultural critic Ivan Illich, we use evidence-based medicine statistics and simulation modelling approaches to develop testable hypotheses as to how iatrogenic influences on the course of depression may help explain this seeming paradox. Combined psychological treatment and antidepressant medication may be available, and beneficial, for depressed people in socioeconomically advantaged areas. But more Australians with depression live in disadvantaged areas where antidepressant medication provision without formal psychotherapy is more typical; there also are urban/non-urban disparities. Depressed people often engage in self-help strategies consistent with psychological treatments, probably often with some benefit to these people. We propose then, if people are encouraged to rely heavily on antidepressant medication only, and if they consequently reduce spontaneous self-help activity, that the benefits of the antidepressant medication may be more than offset by reductions in beneficial effects as a consequence of reduced self-help activity. While in advantaged areas, more comprehensive service delivery may result in observed prevalence lower than it would be without services, in less well-serviced areas, observed prevalence may be higher than it would otherwise be. Overall, then, we see no change. If the hypotheses receive support from the proposed research, then implications for service prioritisation and delivery could include a case for wider application of recovery-oriented practice. Critically, it would strengthen the case for action to correct inequities in the delivery of psychological treatments for depression in Australia so that combined psychological therapy and antidepressant medication, accessible and administered within an empowering framework, should be a nationally implemented standard.

The persistent prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity raises significant concerns about the impact on health, society and the economy. Responding to a target announced in September 2015 by the New South Wales (Australia) Premier to reduce childhood overweight and obesity by five percentage points by 2025, a system dynamics model was developed to support Government and stakeholders responsible for meeting the target. A participatory model building process, drawing cross‐sectorial expertise, was undertaken to estimate the individual and combined impact of interventions on meeting the target. The model demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to meet the target by implementing a comprehensive combination of policies and programmes. When limited to existing and enhanced population health interventions, the modelled result did not reach the target. The project provides an example of how participatory simulation modelling can combine a broad range of interventions together into likely scenarios and usefully inform government decision‐making. © 2018 The authors. Systems Research and Behavioral Science published by International Federation for Systems Research and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Objective: Successive suicide prevention frameworks and action plans in Australia and internationally have called for improvements to mental health services and enhancement of workforce capacity. However, there is debate regarding the priorities for resource allocation and the optimal combination of mental health services to best prevent suicidal behaviour. This study investigates the potential impacts of service capacity improvements on the incidence of suicidal behaviour in the Australian context. Methods: A system dynamics model was developed to investigate the optimal combination of (1) secondary (acute) mental health service capacity, (2) non-secondary (non-acute) mental health service capacity and (3) resources to re-engage those lost to services on the incidence of suicidal behaviour over the period 2018–2028 for the Greater Western Sydney (Australia) population catchment. The model captured population and behavioural dynamics and mental health service referral pathways and was validated using population survey and administrative data, evidence syntheses and an expert stakeholder group. Results: Findings suggest that 28% of attempted suicide and 29% of suicides could be averted over the forecast period based on a combination of increases in (1) hospital staffing (with training in trauma-informed care), (2) non-secondary health service capacity, (3) expansion of mental health assessment capacity and (4) re-engagement of at least 45% of individuals lost to services. Reduction in the number of available psychiatric beds by 15% had no substantial impact on the incidence of attempted suicide and suicide over the forecast period. Conclusion: This study suggests that more than one-quarter of suicides and attempted suicides in the Greater Western Sydney population catchment could potentially be averted with a combination of increases to hospital staffing and non-secondary (non-acute) mental health care. Reductions in tertiary care services (e.g. psychiatric hospital beds) in combination with these increases would not adversely affect subsequent incidence of suicidal behaviour.

Objectives: This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. Methods: The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Results: Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Conclusion: Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.