Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi‐year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO₂ concentration [CO₂]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model‐based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well‐controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO₂] and temperature.

Groundwater depletion will reduce cropping intensity in India, and canal irrigation cannot fully substitute for this loss.

• Higher cereal productivity can be achieved with lower environmental footprint through conservation agriculture. • Wheat productivity and profitability can be increased by zero-tillage and early sowing. • Kharif maize appears to be a suitable and profitable alternative to rice in northwest India. • Productivity and resource efficiency of transplanted rice can be improved by BMPs. • Directly sown rice has potential to save water, energy and global warming potential compared to transplanted rice.

Lack of suitable machinery is a major constraint to direct drilling into combine-harvested rice residues due to the heavy straw load, and the presence of loose tough straw deposited by the harvester. Therefore, most rice stubbles are burnt in the mechanised rice–wheat systems of south Asia and Australia, as this is a rapid and cheap option, and allows for quick turn around between crops. As well as loss of organic matter and nutrients, rice stubble burning causes very serious and widespread air pollution in the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plains, where rice–wheat systems predominate. A novel approach with much promise is the Happy Seeder, which combines the stubble mulching and seed drilling functions in the one machine. The stubble is cut and picked up in front of the sowing tynes, which engage bare soil, and deposited behind the seed drill as mulch. Evaluation of the technology over 3 years in replicated experiments and farmers’ fields in Punjab, India, showed that establishment of wheat sown into rice residues with the Happy Seeder was comparable with establishment using conventional methods (straw burnt followed by direct drilling or cultivation before sowing) for sowings around the optimum time into stubbles up to 7.5 t/ha. For late sowings, plant density declined significantly at straw loads above 5 t/ha. The mulch also reduced weed biomass by ~60%, and reduced soil evaporation. Yield of wheat sown around the optimum time into rice residues, using the Happy Seeder, was comparable with or higher than yield after straw removal or burning, in replicated experiments and farmers’ fields, for straw loads up to 9 t/ha. In farmers’ fields there was an average yield increase of 9 and 11% in 2004–05 and 2005–06, respectively, compared with farmer practice. For sowings after the optimum time, yield declined significantly at straw loads greater than 7.5 t/ha. The Happy Seeder offers the means of drilling wheat into rice stubble without burning, eliminating air pollution and loss of nutrients and organic carbon due to burning, at the same time as maintaining or increasing yield.