This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed.

The paper analyzes trends in the extreme temperature indices based on fixed thresholds in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1961-2016. Based on data from 12 meteorological stations, trends in both warm and cold temperature indices were determined using the nonparametric Mann- Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator. The observed tendencies in indices based on fixed thresholds were as expected in a warming world - warm temperature indices (summer days, tropical days and tropical nights) displayed the significant positive trends, whereas cold temperature indices (icing days and frost days) showed the downward tendencies. The annual occurrence of summer days and tropical days increased on average for 5.3 and 4.8 days per decade, respectively, whereas icing days and frost days displayed downward trends in the range of -1.7 and -3.6 days per decade, respectively. The obtained results indicate that the climate system warming was more a result of very pronounced positive trends in the warm temperature indices than the downward tendency of cold ones. The most prominent changes were observed in Banja Luka, Bugojno and Zenica regions. Both trends, positive in warm indices and negative in cold ones, become more pronounced in the 1990s and particularly since the beginning of the 21st century. Further research should focus on the assessment of the observed trends impacts on natural and socio-economic systems.

The study investigates trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A set of daily precipitation time series from four meteorological stations was used for the computation of 13 indices (mostly recommended by the ETCCDI). Trends were calculated for the 1961-2015 periods using RClimDex (1.0) software package. Given the results, a general increase in the extreme precipitation indices is present over the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Upward trends in heavy precipitation indices such as RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10mm, R20mm, R95p, R95p%, R99p and R99p% indicate changes toward more intense precipitation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, most of the estimated trends are not statistically significant. Registered patterns of change were not spatially and temporally coherent and one of the characteristics was that trend signs were mixed. The analyzed precipitation indices trends are directly linked to changes in the dominant large-scale circulation patterns over Northern Hemisphere. Statistically significant negative correlation with NAO, EAWR and AO is found for majority of extreme precipitation indices, particularly strong during winter. Due to their large impact on natural and socio-economic systems, further research on extreme precipitation events is certainly necessary.