The human tragedy caused by the earthquake doublet on 6 February 2023 in Turkey and Syria is difficult to comprehend. While earthquake scientists are trying to understand this seismic event, its catastrophic impact highlights heightened risk in the entire region.

Convergence of the Indian Plate towards Eurasia has led to the building of the Himalaya, the highest mountain range on Earth. Active mountain building involves a complex interplay between permanent tectonic processes and transient seismic events, which remain poorly understood. In this Review, we examine the feedbacks between long-term tectonic deformation (over millions of years) and the seismic cycle (years to centuries) in the Himalaya. We discuss how surface morphology of the Himalaya indicates that the convergence is largely accommodated by slip on the Main Himalayan Thrust plate boundary fault, which developed in the roots of the mountain range over millions of years. At shorter (decadal) timescales, tectonic geodesy reveals that elastic strain is periodically released via earthquakes. We use examples from earthquake cycle models to suggest that partial ruptures could primarily occur in the downdip region of the Main Himalayan Thrust. Great (Mw 8+) Himalayan earthquakes are more commonly associated with complete megathrust ruptures, which release accumulated residual strain. By synthesizing numerous observations that co-vary along strike, we highlight that tectonic structures that developed over millions of years can influence stress accumulation, structural segmentation, earthquake rupture extent and location, and, consequently, the growth of the mountain range.

There is increasing evidence that the Himalayan seismicity can be bimodal: blind earthquakes (up to Mw ~ 7.8) tend to cluster in the downdip part of the seismogenic zone, whereas infrequent great earthquakes (Mw 8+) propagate up to the Himalayan frontal thrust. To explore the causes of this bimodal seismicity, we developed a two-dimensional, seismic cycle model of the Nepal Himalaya. Our visco-elasto-plastic simulations reproduce important features of the earthquake cycle, including interseismic strain and a bimodal seismicity pattern. Bimodal seismicity emerges as a result of relatively higher friction and a non-planar geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. This introduces a region of large strength excess that can only be activated once enough stress is transferred upwards by blind earthquakes. This supports the view that most segments of the Himalaya might produce complete ruptures significantly larger than the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, which should be accounted for in future seismic hazard assessments.

We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range.