The response of vegetation to climate change is of special interest in regions where rapid warming is coupled with moisture deficit. This raises the question of the limits in plants’ acclimation ability and the consequent shifts of the vegetation cover. Radial growth dynamics and climatic response were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in the forest-steppe, and for Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila L.) in the steppe of South Siberia, as indicators of vegetation state and dynamics. Climate–growth relationships were analyzed by the following two approaches: (1) correlations between tree-ring width chronologies and short-term moving climatic series, and (2) optimization of the parameters of the Vaganov–Shashkin tree growth simulation model to assess the ecophysiological characteristics of species. Regional warming was accompanied by a slower increase of the average moisture deficit, but not in the severity of droughts. In the forest-steppe, the trees demonstrated stable growth and responded to the May–July climate. In the steppe, elm was limited by moisture deficit in May–beginning of June, during the peak water deficit. The forest-steppe stands were apparently acclimated successfully to the current climatic trends. It seems that elm was able to counter the water deficit, likely through its capacity to regulate transpiration by the stomatal morphology and xylem structure, using most of the stem as a water reservoir; earlier onset; and high growth rate, and these physiological traits may provide advantages to this species, leading to its expansion in steppes.

The application of quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) in dendroclimatic analysis offers deep insight into the climatic effect on tree-ring formation, which is crucial in understanding the forests’ response to climate change. However, interrelations between tree-ring traits should be accounted to separate climatic signals recorded during subsequent stages of cell differentiation. The study was conducted in the South Siberian alpine timberline on Pinus sibirica Du Tour, a species considered unpromising in dendroclimatology. Relationships between tree-ring width, cell number N, mean and maximum values of radial diameter D, and cell wall thickness (CWT) were quantified to obtain indexed anatomical chronologies. Exponential functions with saturation D(N) and CWT(N) were proposed, which explained 14–69% and 3–61% of their variability, respectively. Indexation unabated significance of the climatic signals but separated them within a season. Analysis of pointer years and climatic extremes revealed predominantly long-term climatogenic changes of P. sibirica radial growth and QWA and allowed to obtain QWA-based 11-year filtered reconstructions of vegetative season climatic characteristics (R²_adj = 0.32–0.66). The revealed prevalence of low-frequency climatic reactions is probably explained by a strategy of slow accumulation and utilization of resources implemented by P. sibirica. It makes this species’ QWA a promising proxy for decadal climatic variations in various intra-seasonal timeframes.

Dendroclimatology has focused mainly on the tree growth response to atmospheric variables. However, the roots of trees directly sense the “underground climate,” which can be expected to be no less important to tree growth. Data from two meteorological stations approximately 140 km apart in southern Siberia were applied to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil temperature and the statistical relationships of soil temperature to the aboveground climate and tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies of Larix sibirica Ledeb. from three forest–steppe stands. Correlation analysis revealed a depth-dependent delay in the maximum correlation of TRW with soil temperature. Temperatures of both the air and soil (depths 20–80 cm) were shown to have strong and temporally stable correlations between stations. The maximum air temperature is inferred to have the most substantial impact during July–September (R = −0.46–−0.64) and early winter (R = 0.39–0.52). Tree-ring indices reached a maximum correlation with soil temperature at a depth of 40 cm (R = −0.49–−0.59 at 40 cm) during April–August. High correlations are favored by similar soil characteristics at meteorological stations and tree-ring sites. Cluster analysis of climate correlations for individual trees based on the K-means revealed groupings of trees driven by microsite conditions, competition, and age. The results support a possible advantage of soil temperature over air temperature for dendroclimatic analysis of larch growth in semiarid conditions during specific seasons.

Over the coming decades, climate change can decrease forest productivity and stability in many semiarid regions. Tree-ring width (TRW) analysis allows estimation of tree sensitivity to droughts, including resistance (Rt) and resilience (Rc) indexes. It helps to find adaptive potential of individual trees and forest populations. On a forest stand scale, it is affected by habitat conditions and species’ ecophysiological characteristics, and on individual scale by tree genotype, age, and size. This study investigated TRW response to droughts in forest-steppe and sub-taiga of southern Siberia for keystone species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.). Chronologies reacted positively to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the previous July–September and current April–July. Depressed tree growth across region and droughts lasting over both intra-seasonal intervals were registered in 1965, 1974, and 1999. TRW-based Rt and Rc for these droughts did not reveal age- or size-related patterns. Higher growth stability indexes were observed for birch in sub-taiga and for conifers in forest-steppe. Larch at all sites had disadvantage against pine for 1965 and 1999 droughts aggravated by pest outbreaks, but adapted better to drought in 1974. Site aridity affected both tree growth stability and intensity of climatic response.