Neuronal activity-inducible gene transcription correlates with rapid and transient increases in histone acetylation at promoters and enhancers of activity-regulated genes. Exactly how histone acetylation modulates transcription of these genes has remained unknown. We used single-cell in situ transcriptional analysis to show that Fos and Npas4 are transcribed in stochastic bursts in mouse neurons and that membrane depolarization increases mRNA expression by increasing burst frequency. We then expressed dCas9-p300 or dCas9-HDAC8 fusion proteins to mimic or block activity-induced histone acetylation locally at enhancers. Adding histone acetylation increased Fos transcription by prolonging burst duration and resulted in higher Fos protein levels and an elevation of resting membrane potential. Inhibiting histone acetylation reduced Fos transcription by reducing burst frequency and impaired experience-dependent Fos protein induction in the hippocampus in vivo. Thus, activity-inducible histone acetylation tunes the transcriptional dynamics of experience-regulated genes to affect selective changes in neuronal gene expression and cellular function.

We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics. Similarly, switches between environmental states are relevant in bacterial populations and in models of epidemic spread. Existing piecewise-deterministic Markov process approaches focus on the deterministic limit of the population dynamics while retaining the randomness of the switching. Here we go beyond this approximation and explicitly include effects of intrinsic stochasticity at the level of the linear-noise approximation. Specifically, we derive the stationary distributions of a number of model systems, in good agreement with simulations. This improves existing approaches which are limited to the regimes of fast and slow switching.

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R ₀ , was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R ₀ value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. One-sentence summary: By collecting and analyzing spatiotemporal data, we estimated the transmission potential for 2019-nCoV.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5^th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

We present a theoretical framework to analyze the dynamics of gene expression with stochastic bursts. Beginning with an individual-based model which fully accounts for the messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein populations, we propose an expansion of the master equation for the joint process. The resulting coarse-grained model reduces the dimensionality of the system, describing only the protein population while fully accounting for the effects of discrete and fluctuating mRNA population. Closed form expressions for the stationary distribution of the protein population and mean first-passage times of the coarse-grained model are derived and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations show that the analysis accurately describes the individual-based process accounting for mRNA population, in contrast to the failure of commonly proposed diffusion-type models.

A theoretical framework which unifies the conventional Mori--Zwanzig formalism and the approximate Koopman learning of deterministic dynamical systems from noiseless observation is presented. In th...