Heavy rainfall that occurred at the south coast of China on 10–11 May 2014 was associated with a synoptic-system-related low-level jet (SLLJ) and a boundary layer jet (BLJ). To clarify the role of the double low-level jets in convection initiation (CI), we perform convective-permitting simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. The simulations reproduce the occurrence location and mesoscale evolution of new convective cells as well as their small-scale wavelike structures at the elevated layers, which are generally consistent with radar observations despite some differences in their orientation. The nighttime BLJ over the northern South China Sea strengthens the convergence at ~950 hPa near the coast where the BLJ’s northern terminus reaches the coastal terrain. Meanwhile, the SLLJ to the south of the inland cold front provides divergence at ~700 hPa near the SLLJ’s entrance region. Such low-level convergence and midlevel divergence collectively produce strong mesoscale lifting for CI at the coast. In addition to the enhanced mesoscale lifting, the double low-level jets also provide favorable conditions for the superimposed small-scale disturbances that can serve as effective moistening mechanisms of the lower troposphere during CI. In a sensitivity experiment with coastal terrain removed, CI still occurs near the coast but is delayed and weaker compared to the control run. This latter experiment suggests that double low-level jets and their coupling indeed exert key effects on CI, while the BLJ colliding with terrain may enhance coastal convergence for amplifying CI. These findings provide new insights into the occurrence of coastal heavy rainfall in the warm sector far ahead of the fronts.

Heavy rainfall occurred at both the inland frontal zone and coastal warm sector in southern China during 10–11 May 2014, which is a typical pattern in the early-summer rainy season. To clarify the key factors controlling the rainfall, we conduct an ensemble-based analysis using the operational global ensemble forecasts from ECMWF. The forecasts of frontal (warm sector) rainfall have a relatively small (large) spread and a small (large) bias of ensemble-mean amount, suggesting an obvious difference in the predictability. It is shown that double low-level jets (LLJs) in the southwesterly moist flow play a significant role in the heavy rainfall over southern China. The inland frontal rainband is closely related to the synoptic-system-related low-level jet (SLLJ) with maximum wind speed at 850–700 hPa, especially for its meridional wind component. The more intense cold front is accompanied by the stronger southwesterly SLLJ on the adjacent south side, favoring more precipitation near the front. The warm-sector heavy rainfall, a few hundred kilometers away from the front, is associated with the boundary layer jet (BLJ) at 925 hPa. The southerly BLJ occurs over the northern region of the South China Sea and reaches its maximum wind speed in the early morning. The variations of the BLJ are mainly induced by the surface low and related upper-level short-wave trough upstream. The large pressure gradient to the southeast of the surface low can accelerate the BLJ by increasing the geostrophic winds. The diurnal cycle of the low-level winds, seen in the climatology, also contributes in part to the development of the BLJ at night.

The detailed spatial distributions and diurnal variations of low-level jets (LLJs) during early summer (May–July) in China are documented using 2006–11 hourly model data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a 9-km horizontal resolution. It was found that LLJs frequently occur in the following regions of China: the Tarim basin, northeastern China, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and southern China. The LLJs over China are classified into two types: boundary layer jets (BLJs, below 1 km) and synoptic-system-related LLJs (SLLJs, within 1–4 km). The LLJs in the Tarim basin and the TP are mainly BLJs. The SLLJs over southern China and northeastern China are associated with the mei-yu front and northeast cold vortex (NECV), respectively. The BLJs in all regions show pronounced diurnal variations with maximum occurrences at nighttime or in the early morning, whereas diurnal variations of SLLJs vary, depending on the location. From the analysis of model data, the diurnal variation of BLJs is mainly caused by inertial oscillation at nighttime and vertical mixing in the boundary layer during daytime. Over northeastern China, SLLJ occurrences show little diurnal variation. Over southern China, two diurnal modes of SLLJs, propagation and stationary, exist and have seasonal variations, which is generally consistent with diurnal variations of precipitation.

Low-level jets (LLJs) are a key factor regulating the early-summer rainfall over southern China. Their detailed activities and impact are examined using 21-yr ERA5 and TRMM rainfall data. The LLJs typically consist of boundary layer jets (BLJs) and synoptic-system-related LLJs (SLLJs). The BLJ is usually characterized by a southerly wind maximum at 950 hPa over the northern area of South China Sea, whereas the SLLJ features a southwesterly wind maximum at 850–700 hPa located more north on land. Meanwhile, the BLJ (SLLJ) has a maximum occurrence in April–June (May–July) and at late night (in the early morning), indicating the differences in seasonal and diurnal variations. The two types of LLJs are found to influence the rainfall distribution via terrain effects, synoptic disturbances, and moisture transport. During the BLJ events, rainfall is mainly confined to the south side of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains and Yun-Gui Plateau (south region), whereas during the SLLJ events rainfall occurs both in the coastal region and to the north of the mountains (north region). The difference is caused by the southerly BLJ that induces strong orographic lifting on the windward side of the mountains, while the elevated SLLJ can pass over the mountains driving an additional upward motion more north. Active synoptic disturbances accompanied by SLLJs are also favorable for the rainfall in the north region. The moisture transportation by LLJs is another important factor regulating rainfall distribution. Rainfall in the south (north) region is mainly attributed to the net moisture flux in the boundary layer (more elevated layers) due to the BLJ (SLLJ).

A simple analytical model including both diurnal thermal forcing over sloping terrain (the “Holton” mechanism) and diurnally varying boundary layer friction (the “Blackadar” mechanism) is developed to account for the observed amplitude and phase of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the Great Plains and to understand better the role of each mechanism. The present model indicates that, for the pure Holton mechanism (time-independent friction coefficient), the maximum southerly wind speed occurs (depending on the assumed friction coefficient) between sunset and midnight local standard time, which is earlier than the observed after-midnight maximum. For the pure Blackadar mechanism (time-independent thermal forcing), the present model shows that generally occurs later (closer to sunrise) than observed and has a strong latitudinal dependence. For both mechanisms combined, the present model indicates that occurs near to the observed time, which lies between the time obtained in the pure Holton mechanism and the time obtained in the pure Blackadar mechanism; furthermore, is larger (and closer to that observed) than in each one considered individually. The amplitude and phase of the LLJ as a function of latitude can be obtained by the combined model by allowing for the observed latitude-dependent mean and diurnally varying thermal forcing.

Through conducting dynamic and thermodynamic diagnoses as well as a series of numerical sensitivity simulations, we investigated the effects of the terrain, coastline, and cold pools on convection initiation (CI) and its subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) during a case of heavy rainfall along the coast of South China. CI occurred at the vertex of the coastal concave mountain geometry as a combined result of coastal convergence, orographic lifting, and mesoscale ascent driven by the terminus of a marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ). In numerical simulations with the coastline or terrain of South China removed, the coastal CI does not occur or becomes weaker as the MBLJ extends farther north, suggesting that the coastline and terrain play a role in CI. In addition, local small-scale terrain can modulate the detailed location and timing of CI and UCG. When the coastal concave terrain and coastline near the CI are artificially removed or filled by additional mountains, the orographic lifting and the local convergence along the coast correspondingly change, which strongly affects the CI and UCG. From a thermodynamic perspective, the coastal concave terrain plays the role of a local moisture “catcher,” which promotes low-level moistening by blocking water vapor coming from an upstream moist tongue over the ocean. Furthermore, new convection is continuously generated by the lifting of low-level moist southerlies at the leading edges of cold pools that tend to move southeastward because of the blocking coastal mountains. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the MCS becomes weaker and moves more slowly when cold pools are weakened through a reduction of rain-evaporation cooling.