Freshwater scarcity has increased at an alarming rate worldwide; improved water management plays a vital role in increasing food production and security. This study aims to determine the water footprint of Brazil’s national food consumption, the virtual water flows associated with international trade in the main agricultural commodities, as well as water scarcity, water self-sufficiency and water dependency per Brazilian region. While previous country studies on water footprints and virtual water trade focused on virtual water importers or water-scarce countries, this is the first study to concentrate on a water-abundant virtual water-exporting country. Besides, it is the first study establishing international virtual water trade balances per state, which is relevant given the fact that water scarcity varies across states within the country, so the origin of virtual water exports matters. The results show that the average water footprint of Brazilian food consumption is 1619 m³/person/year. Beef contributes most (21%) to this total. We find a net virtual water export of 54.8 billion m³/year, mainly to Europe, which imports 41% of the gross amount of the virtual water exported from Brazil. The northeast, the region with the highest water scarcity, has a net import of virtual water. The southeast, next in terms of water scarcity, shows large virtual water exports, mainly related to the export of sugar. The north, which has the most water, does not show a high virtual water export rate.

Drought causes serious social and environmental problems that have great impact on the lives of thousands of people all around the world. The purpose of this research was to investigate the trends in humid conditions in the northeast of Brazil (NEB) in the highest climatic precipitation quarters, November–December–January (NDJ), February–March–April (FMA), and May–June–July (MJJ), through the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considering an alternative statistical approach. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series for the calculation of the SPEI were extracted for the 1794 NEB municipalities between 1980 and 2015 from a grid dataset with a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° using the bilinear interpolation method. The trends and statistical significance of the SPEI were estimated by quantile regression (QR) and the bootstrap test. In NDJ, opposite trends were seen in the eastern NEB (~0.5 SPEI/decade) and in the south (~−0.6 SPEI/decade). In FMA, most of NEB presented negative trends in the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles (~−0.3 SPEI/decade), while in MJJ, most of NEB presented positive trends in all quantiles studied (~0.4 SPEI/decade). The results are consistent with observational analyses of extreme rainfall.

The climatic conditions along the cycle are the main factors responsible for the final production of any crop. This study aimed to evaluate the current conditions and the effects of climate change scenarios on the yield of soybean grown in the Matopiba region, located between the states of Tocantins, south and northeast of Maranhão, south of Piauí and west of Bahia, Brazil. The AquaCrop model of FAO, version 5.0, was calibrated with data of 2014 and validated with those of 2016, using climate, soil and crop management parameters collected in two experimental campaigns conducted between June and October in 2014 and 2016 in Palmas, TO, Brazil. The performance of the model was evaluated using the following statistical indicators: prediction error (PE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (EF) and Willmott’s index of agreement (d). It was verified that the AquaCrop model underestimates soybean grain yield under severe water stress conditions throughout the growing cycle. The increase in CO2 concentration and in the air temperature, projected by the climate models HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 under the scenario of stabilization (RCP 4.5) and the scenario of progression (RCP 8.5), have contributed to the increase in soybean yield by the end of this century.

Neste estudo se objetivou a avaliação da contribuição do calor armazenado acima das placas de fluxo de calor no solo e no dossel vegetativo sobre os componentes do balanço de energia, no pomar de mangueiras. Os componentes do balanço de energia foram obtidos pelo método do balanço de energia com base na razão de Bowen. O teste t-Student foi usado para avaliar a existência de diferença significativa entre as médias dos componentes do balanço de energia, obtidas mediante as seguintes condições: (i) considerando-se o calor armazenado acima dos fluxímetros e (ii) desconsiderando-se o calor armazenado acima dos fluxímetros, cujos resultados indicaram que: 1) o efeito do calor armazenado no dossel vegetativo é irrelevante quando comparado com os outros componentes do balanço de energia em pomar de mangueiras; 2) o calor armazenado acima das placas de calor no solo não interfere significativamente no cálculo dos fluxos de calor sensível e latente nem na evapotranspiração da mangueira irrigada; 3) o fluxo de calor no solo, corrigido com o calor armazenado acima dos fluxímetros, difere estatisticamente a nível de 5% de probabilidade, daquele obtido sem a correção do fluxo. The objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of the heat storage above the soil heat flux plates and within the canopy upon the components of the energy balance in the mango orchard. The Bowen energy-ratio balance method was used for obtaining the energy balance components and evapotranspiration of the mango orchard. The t-Student test was applied to evaluate statistical significance of the difference between energy balance component averages under the following conditions: (i) considering and (ii) not considering the heat storage above the fluximeters. The results suggested that: 1) the canopy heat storage is irrelevant compared to the other energy balance components; 2) the above soil heat plates heat storage does not influence the sensible and latent heat fluxes nor the irrigated mango orchard evapotranspiration; 3) the soil heat flux, when corrected for the heat storage above the soil heat plates differs statistically, at the 5% probability level, from that obtained without correction

Resumo O impacto das mudanças climáticas nos padrões de precipitação e temperaturas máximas e mínimas da região Nordeste do Brasil é investigado com base na média dos resultados de quatro modelos climáticos globais, ECHAM5-OM da Alemanha, HADGEM2-ES do Reino Unido, BCM2 da Noruega e o CNRM-CM3 da França, para dois cenários de emissões de gases de efeito estufa, A1B e A2 que tiveram suas projeções futuras regionalizadas para o período 2021-2080 com o emprego da técnica de downscaling estatístico. A habilidade dos modelos em simular as condições do clima presente foi validada para o período de controle 1961-1990, apresentando resultados muito satisfatórios. Foi empregado o método dos análogos para realizar o downscaling estatístico e encontrar as relações preditor-preditando. Os resultados apontam para uma redução expressiva da precipitação nos respectivos períodos chuvosos das sub-regiões do Nordeste, e aumento das temperaturas máximas no primeiro semestre de forma mais significativa, com tendência a diminuição em extensas áreas do setor norte do Nordeste em meses do segundo semestre, principalmente para o cenário A2. Para as temperaturas mínimas os resultados apontam para tendência de aumento em todo o ano com destaque para os meses de inverno.