Assessing Biodiversity Declines: Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

One of the most prolific radiations of venomous snakes, the Australo‐Melanesian Hydrophiinae includes ∼100 species of Australasian terrestrial elapids plus all ∼60 species of viviparous sea snakes. Here, we estimate hydrophiine relationships based on a large data set comprising 5800 bp drawn from seven genes (mitochondrial: ND4, cytb, 12S, 16S; nuclear: rag1, cmos, myh). These data were analysed using parsimony, likelihood and Bayesian methods to better resolve hydrophiine phylogeny and provide a timescale for the terrestrial and marine radiations. Among oviparous forms,Cacophis, FurinaandDemansiaare basal to other Australian elapids (core oxyuranines). The MelanesianToxicocalamusandAspidomorphusgroup withDemansia, indicating multiple dispersal events between New Guinea and Australia.OxyuranusandPseudonajaform a robust clade. The small burrowing taxa form two separate clades, one consisting ofVermicellaandNeelaps calanotus, and the other includingSimoselaps,BrachyurophisandNeelaps bimaculatus. The viviparous terrestrial elapids form three separate groups:Acanthophis, theRhinoplocephalusgroup and theNotechis–Hemiaspisgroup. True sea snakes (Hydrophiini) are robustly united with theNotechis–Hemiaspisgroup. Many of the retrieved groupings are consistent with previous molecular and morphological analyses, but the polyphyly of the viviparous and burrowing groups, and ofNeelaps, are novel results. Bayesian relaxed clock analyses indicate very recent divergences: the ∼160 species of the core Australian radiation (including sea snakes) arose within the last 10 Myr, with most inter‐generic splits dating to between 10 and 6 Ma. TheHydrophissea snake lineage is an exceptionally rapid radiation, with > 40 species evolving within the last 5 Myr.

The relationship between rates of diversification and of body size change (a common proxy for phenotypic evolution) was investigated across Elapidae, the largest radiation of highly venomous snakes. Time-calibrated phylogenetic trees for 175 species of elapids (more than 50% of known taxa) were constructed using seven mitochondrial and nuclear genes. Analyses using these trees revealed no evidence for a link between speciation rates and changes in body size. Two clades (Hydrophis,Micrurus) show anomalously high rates of diversification within Elapidae, yet exhibit rates of body size evolution almost identical to the general elapid ‘background’ rate. Although correlations between speciation rates and rates of body size change exist in certain groups (e.g. ray-finned fishes, passerine birds), the two processes appear to be uncoupled in elapid snakes. There is also no detectable shift in diversification dynamics associated with the colonization of Australasia, which is surprising given that elapids appear to be the first clade of venomous snakes to reach the continent.

A limiting factor in many molecular dating studies is shortage of reliable calibrations. Current methods for choosing calibrations (e.g. cross-validation) treat them as either correct or incorrect, whereas calibrations probably lie on a continuum from highly accurate to very poor. Bayesian relaxed clock analysis permits inclusion of numerous candidate calibrations as priors: provided most calibrations are reliable, the model appropriate and the data informative, the accuracy of each calibration prior can be evaluated. If a calibration is accurate, then the analysis will support the prior so that the posterior estimate reflects the prior; if a calibration is poor, the posterior will be forced away from the prior. We use this approach to test two fossil dates recently proposed as standard calibrations within vertebrates. The proposed bird–crocodile calibration (approx. 247 Myr ago) appears to be accurate, but the proposed bird–lizard calibration (approx. 255 Myr ago) is substantially too recent.