Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on‐ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision‐making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision‐making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of ‘translators’ between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision‐making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Despite a global political commitment to reduce biodiversity loss by 2010 through the 2002 Convention on Biological Diversity, declines are accelerating and threats are increasing (1). Major threats to biodiversity are habitat loss, invasion by exotic species and pathogens, and climate change, all principally driven by human activities. Although fossil fuel (FF) extraction has traditionally been seen as a temporary and spatially limited perturbation to ecosystems (2), even local or limited biodiversity loss can have large cascade effects on ecosystem function and productivity. We explore the overlap between regions of high marine and terrestrial biodiversity and FF reserves to identify regions at particular risk of ecosystem destruction and biodiversity loss from exposure to FF extraction.

Aim: Climate warming and land use change represent a major challenge for both species and conservation managers. Temporally and spatially explicit projections of the future distribution of species have been extensively developed to support decision‐making in conservation. The aim of this study was to move beyond the simple projections of likely impacts of global change to identify the most vulnerable species. We suggest an original vulnerability index that integrates estimations of projected range change and different proxies of species resilience in a quantitative way. The proposed index is generally applicable, completely quantitative, and it allows ranking species so as to prioritize conservation actions.Location: We illustrate the applicability of the vulnerability index using breeding birds in Switzerland as an example of conservation target.Methods: The vulnerability index relies on five indicators quantifying different aspects of the projected change in distributional area, the reservoirs available for the species and their recent population trend. Species distribution was modelled using three different techniques (GAM, MARS and BRT) and then projected for 2050 and 2100 according to two different IPCC scenarios of climate change coupled with two regional land use scenarios to represent different magnitudes of the stressors and the range of possible outcomes.Results: According to the different contributions of the base indicators, different patterns of vulnerability can be distinguished. In Switzerland, breeding birds inhabiting coniferous woodlands, alpine habitats and wetlands have significantly higher vulnerability to climate and land use change than species in other habitats.Main conclusions: The proposed vulnerability index represents an early warning system as it identifies species that are currently not threatened, but are very likely to become so. As such, it complements the assessment of risk of species' extinction based on the Red List and on their international importance.

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