We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

Mixed mating, where a single tree progeny results from a mixture of selfing and outcrossing, is widespread in conifers and could be an evolutionary advantage at ecological margins when mating partners become scarce. This study analyzes how the mating system responds to bioclimate and density variations. We surveyed published data on the mating system of Abies, Picea and Pinus species when information on bioclimate and stand density was available. Our survey revealed that Mediterranean species demonstrate a lower selfing rate than other species and that the proportion of selfed versus outcrossed progeny is not fixed within species. The highest variability in mating types within populations was found when stand density was the most variable. To show how density affects the proportion of selfed versus outcrossed progeny, we used isozymes to genotype single tree seeds from a marginal Abies alba forest in Mediterranean France (Mont Ventoux) where low-to high-density stands are found. We then tested the adaptive potential of the different high and low density progenies by sowing them under controlled nursery conditions and measuring germination rate and seedling survival after 4 yr under 3 different water regimes. Although the mean value of outcrossing rate was typical for mixed mating conifers (t_m = 0.85), individual outcrossing rates varied from 0.05 to 0.99 and were strongly correlated with stand type and density (t_m from 0.87 in high-density to 0.43 in low-density marginal stands). Significantly fewer seeds from the low density marginal stand germinated (32% vs. 53% in the high density mature stand), although seedlings from the marginal stand had a better 4-yr survival (81%) than seedlings from the high-density mature stand (63%) when the three water regimes (from least to most stressful) were averaged. Trees from low density stands may be at a selective disadvantage because they produce more selfed progeny than trees from high-density stands. However, selfed seeds may be purged early on (at the embryo stage) and the remaining seeds tend to produce seedlings with better fitness. Variability of the selfing rate might thus be an adaptive strategy for species in highly contrasted environments where selection of both reproductive assurance and avoidance of inbreeding depression may be density dependent.