Prosopis was introduced to Baringo, Kenya in the early 1980s for provision of fuelwood and for controlling desertification through the Fuelwood Afforestation Extension Project (FAEP). Since then, Prosopis has hybridized and spread throughout the region. Prosopis has negative ecological impacts on biodiversity and socio-economic effects on livelihoods. Vachellia tortilis, on the other hand, is the dominant indigenous tree species in Baringo and is an important natural resource, mostly preferred for wood, fodder and charcoal production. High utilization due to anthropogenic pressure is affecting the Vachellia populations, whereas the well adapted Prosopis—competing for nutrients and water—has the potential to replace the native Vachellia vegetation. It is vital that both species are mapped in detail to inform stakeholders and for designing management strategies for controlling the Prosopis invasion. For the Baringo area, few remote sensing studies have been carried out. We propose a detailed and robust object-based Random Forest (RF) classification on high spatial resolution Sentinel-2 (ten meter) and Pléiades (two meter) data to detect Prosopis and Vachellia spp. for Marigat sub-county, Baringo, Kenya. In situ reference data were collected to train a RF classifier. Classification results were validated by comparing the outputs to independent reference data of test sites from the “Woody Weeds” project and the Out-Of-Bag (OOB) confusion matrix generated in RF. Our results indicate that both datasets are suitable for object-based Prosopis and Vachellia classification. Higher accuracies were obtained by using the higher spatial resolution Pléiades data (OOB accuracy 0.83 and independent reference accuracy 0.87–0.91) compared to the Sentinel-2 data (OOB accuracy 0.79 and independent reference accuracy 0.80–0.96). We conclude that it is possible to separate Prosopis and Vachellia with good accuracy using the Random Forest classifier. Given the cost of Pléiades, the free of charge Sentinel-2 data provide a viable alternative as the increased spectral resolution compensates for the lack of spatial resolution. With global revisit times of five days from next year onwards, Sentinel-2 based classifications can probably be further improved by using temporal information in addition to the spectral signatures.

The Pannonian Basin in southeastern Europe is heavily used for rain-fed agriculture. The region experienced several droughts in the last years, causing major yield losses. Ongoing climate change, characterised by increasing temperatures and potential evapotranspiration, and by changes in precipitation distribution will likely increase the frequency and intensity of drought episodes in the future. Hence, ongoing monitoring of droughts and estimation of their impact on agriculture is necessary to adapt agricultural practices to changing weather and climate extremes. Several regional initiatives, projects and online tools have been established to facilitate drought monitoring and management in the Pannonian Basin. However, reliable systems to forecast potential drought impacts on plant productivity and agricultural yields at monthly to seasonal scales are only in their infancy, as plant response to climatic extremes is still poorly understood. With the increasing availability of high-resolution and long-term Earth Observation (EO) data and recent progress in machine learning and artificial intelligence, further improvements in drought monitoring and impact prediction capacities are expected. Here we review the current state of drought monitoring in the Pannonian Basin, identify EO-based variables to potentially improve regional drought impact monitoring and outline future perspectives for seasonal forecasts of drought impacts on agriculture.

Woody alien plant species have been deliberately introduced globally in many arid and semi-arid regions, as they can provide services and goods to the rural poor. However, some of these alien trees and shrubs have become invasive over time, with important impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Prosopis was introduced in Baringo County, Kenya, in the 1980s, but since then, it has spread rapidly from the original plantations to new areas. To assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes and dynamics in Baringo, we used a combination of dry and wet season Landsat satellite data acquired over a seven-year time interval between 1988–2016, and performed a supervised Random Forest classification. For each time interval, we calculated the extent of Prosopis invasion, rates of spread, gains and losses of specific LULC classes, and the relative importance of Prosopis invasion on LULC changes. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficients of the LULC classifications ranged between 98.1–98.5% and 0.93–0.96, respectively. We found that Prosopis coverage increased from 882 ha in 1988 to 18,792 ha in 2016. The highest negative changes in LULC classes were found for grasslands (−6252 ha; −86%), irrigated cropland (−849 ha; −57%), Vachellia tortilis-dominated vegetation (−3602 ha; −42%), and rainfed cropland (−1432 ha; −37%). Prosopis invasion alone directly accounted for over 30% of these negative changes, suggesting that Prosopis invasion is a key driver of the observed LULC changes in Baringo County. Although the management of Prosopis by utilization has been promoted in Baringo for 10–15 years, the spread of Prosopis has not stopped or slowed down. This suggests that Prosopis management in Baringo and other invaded areas in East Africa needs to be based on a more integrated approach.

Significant progress has been made in providing guidelines and recommendations for assessing the ecological niche, stage of invasion, and probability of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) potential distribution in space and time. We followed these recommendations by developing and comparing ordination and species distribution models (SDMs) of two important woody IAPS in Eastern Africa,Prosopis julifloraandLantana camara, and interpreting the results to inform IAPS management. The two species differ in their invasion history in Eastern Africa; whileL. camarawas widely introduced there in the 19th century,P. juliflorawas only planted at selected locations in the 1970s and 1980s. For the SDMs, machine learning algorithms were used to generate one ensemble model each forP. julifloraandL. camara. For ordination, we used bioclimatic variables, performed a principal component analysis, and compared the native and global niches of the species with the Eastern African niche. Niches varied substantially depending on the percentage of marginal climates excluded from the models. Additional analysis of the local niches surrounding the originalP. julifloraplantations showed that they are complementary, which may have led to an overestimation of regional niche filling. While niche expansion was absent or small depending on the percentage of marginal climates excluded, analysis of the stages of invasion suggested thatP. julifloramay have started to adapt to novel climatic conditions and thatL. camarais approaching a pseudo‐stable equilibrium in Eastern Africa. The SDMs showed that large areas in Eastern Africa that have not yet been invaded byP. julifloraare suitable or will become suitable with climate change. ForL. camara, the global SDM predicted a considerably larger suitable area than the Eastern African one, raising uncertainty about the areas to be included in a regional management strategy. Thus, combining ordination and SDMs and integrating a geographic component into ordination is useful in assessing IAPS invasion stages and potential niche shifts, and the results help inform IAPS policy and management. The combined approach can also serve to guide experimental studies addressing divergences between results generated with the different approaches.