In Southeastern Katanga, mining activities are (in)directly responsible for deforestation, ecosystem degradation and unplanned building densification. However, little is known about these dynamics at the local level. First, we quantify the landscape anthropization around four agglomerations of Southeastern Katanga (Lubumbashi, Likasi, Fungurume and Kolwezi) in order to assess the applicability of the Nature–Agriculture-Urbanization model based on the fact that natural landscapes are replaced by anthropogenic landscapes, first dominated by agricultural production, and then built-up areas. Secondly, we predict evolutionary trends of landscape anthropization by 2090 through the first-order Markov chain. Mapping coupled with landscape ecology analysis tools revealed that the natural cover that dominated the landscape in 1979 lost more than 60% of its area in 41 years (1979–2020) around these agglomerations in favor of agricultural and energy production, the new landscape matrix in 2020, but also built-up areas. These disturbances, amplified between 2010 and 2020, are more significant around Lubumbashi and Kolwezi agglomerations. Built-up areas which spread progressively will become the dominant process by 2060 in Lubumbashi and by 2075 in Kolwezi. Our results confirm the applicability of the Nature–Agriculture-Urbanization model to the tropical context and underline the urgency to put in place a territorial development plan and alternatives regarding the use of charcoal as a main energy source in order to decrease the pressure on natural ecosystems, particularly in peri-urban areas.

The landscape of the Port-au-Prince agglomeration in the Republic of Haiti has undergone profound changes linked to (peri-)urban expansion supported by rapid demographic growth. We quantify the land cover dynamics along the urban–rural gradient of the Port-au-Prince agglomeration using Landsat images from 1986, 1998, 1999, 2010, and 2021 coupled with geographic information systems and landscape ecology analysis tools. The results show that over 35 years the acreage of the urban zone increased seven-fold while that of the peri-urban area increased five-fold, to the detriment of the rural zone, which was reduced by 14%. The dynamics of the landscape composition along the urban–rural gradient are characterized by a rapid progression of built-up and bare land in urban and peri-urban zones and by fields in the rural zone, in contrast to the more accentuated regression of vegetation in the peri-urban zone. The landscape of the study area has undergone significant changes due to the high demand for housing resulting from rapid population growth, in the context of a lack of territorial development planning by public authorities. This impacts the sustainability of socio-economic and ecological processes in an area where populations are highly dependent on plant resources. Our results underline the necessity to orient territorial development planning in urban, peri-urban and rural zones through an integrated and participatory approach.