Aims: The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Methods and results: Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (−3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (−30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (−29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population). Conclusion: In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases. Registration: Not applicable.

Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study involving 204 countries and territories, trends in DALYs and deaths were described for obesity and malnutrition from 2000 to 2019, stratified by geographical regions (as defined by WHO) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Malnutrition was defined according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases codes for nutritional deficiencies, stratified by malnutrition type. Obesity was measured via body mass index (BMI) using metrics related to national and subnational estimates, defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m². Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. None.

There is a new awareness of the widespread nature of metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and its connection to cardiovascular disease (CVD). This has catalyzed collaboration between cardiologists, hepatologists, endocrinologists, and the wider multidisciplinary team to address the need for earlier identification of those with MASLD who are at increased risk for CVD. The overlap in the pathophysiologic processes and parallel prevalence of CVD, metabolic syndrome, and MASLD highlight the multisystem consequences of poor cardiovascular–liver–metabolic health. Metabolic dysfunction and associated insulin resistance, together with the predilection for ectopic fat deposition in the liver and surrounding tissues, are associated with elevated risk of endothelial dysfunction, systemic inflammatory response, and ectopic fat deposition in the epicardium. This complex pathophysiology can accelerate atherogenic dyslipidemia, atherogenesis, diastolic dysfunction, valvular calcification, and cardiac arrhythmias. Despite the mounting evidence of mechanistic pathways underpinning MASLD and CVD, current recommendations have not clearly focused upon MASLD as a risk factor or target for intervention in CVD. We have brought together a diverse range of international experts committed to promoting cardiovascular–liver–metabolic health and related outcomes across the globe. The overarching goal of this document is to offer a construct for clinicians in the cardiovascular field with regards to (1) diagnosis and screening of MASLD through the use of noninvasive serum and imaging tests; (2) screening for CVD in all individuals with MASLD regardless of established atherosclerotic risk factors; and (3) the approach to management of MASLD with respect to prevention of CVD through lifestyle, as well as pharmacologic and surgical strategies. To achieve this, the modified Delphi method was applied and a series of evidence-based quality standard recommendations have been identified.

Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. This was supported by the 10.13039/501100011744 NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), 10.13039/501100001349 National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), 10.13039/501100001352 National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, 10.13039/501100011744 NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative 10.13039/100005721 Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).