Changes in glacier resources and their meltwater runoff contributions in Xinjiang are significant to the hydrological processes and water resources utilization. This study used the first and second Chinese Glacier Inventory, geomorphological and meteorological data. GIS spatial analysis technology was used to explore the characteristics of glacier change and its response to topography and climate change in Xinjiang in the last 50 years. The results show that there are currently 20,695 glaciers in Xinjiang with a total area of 22,742.55 km² and ice reserves of about 2229.17 km³. Glaciers in Xinjiang are concentrated at 5100–6000 m. The Tianshan mountains have the largest number of glaciers. However, the Kunlun mountains have the largest glaciers and ice reserves. The scale of glaciers is significantly larger in the south than that in the north. The changes in glaciers in Xinjiang during the last 50 years are mainly receding and splitting, and their number, area, and ice reserves have decreased by 1359, 7080.12 km² and 482.65 km³, respectively. Small glaciers are more sensitive to climate change. Glaciers are basically unchanged in regions above 6000 m. The glaciers on the south slope of mountains are more susceptible to climate change. The phenomenon of an increase in the number of glaciers but decreasing total area in the southern mountains is related to glacier extinction and splitting. Glacier development and formation are determined by the combination of topography and hydrothermal material conditions. The change of glacier areas in Xinjiang is jointly affected by climatic conditions (53.45%) and topographic conditions (46.55%), among which climatic conditions are more prominent.

Glacier mass balance can visually indicate the degree of glacier response to climate change. The mountain glaciers are an essential source of recharge for rivers in arid regions and play a vital role in maintaining regional ecological stability and production life. This paper drives a spatially distributed degree-day model using multi-source remote sensing data such as MOD11C3 and TRMM3B43 to simulate the mass balance in the Tianshan Mountains’ south and north slope basins. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the mass balance was compared and attributed using a Geographical detector. The results show that: (1) The glaciers in the north and south basins are mainly distributed at an altitude of 3900–4300 m, and the total glacier area accounts for 85.71%. The number of less than 1 km² glaciers is the most in the whole region. (2) During the study period, the glaciers in the north and south basins were negative (−465.95 mm w.e.) an entire interannual change rate was −28.36 mm w.e./a. The overall trend of ablation can be divided into two stages: from 2000 to 2010a, the persistence increased, and from 2010 to 2016a, the volatility decreased. (3) In the attribution of mass balance, the factors affecting glacier mass balance can be divided into two parts: climate and topography. The cumulative contribution rate of climate factors in Kaidu is nearly 20% higher than that of topographic factors, but the contribution rate of climate factors in Manas is only 7.3% higher. Therefore, the change of glacier mass balance in the Kaidu river basin is more driven by climate factors, while the glacier mass balance in the Manas river basin is more affected by the combination of climate and topographic factors. (4) The climate accumulation is the dominant factor in the Manas river basin (69.55%); for the ablation area, the Kaidu river basin is dominated by climate (70.85%), and the Manas river basin is dominated by topographic factors (54.11%). Due to the driving force of climate and topographic factors and the different coupling modes, glacier mass balance’s spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the north and south slope basins is caused. This study contributes to analyzing the mechanism of regional changes in the glacier mass balance. It provides a scientific basis for investigating the characteristics of water resource changes and water resource regulation in the north and south slope basins of the Tianshan Mountains.

Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.