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Prof. Jose-Luis Molina
Hydraulic Engineering Area, Higher Polytechnic School of Ávila, University of Salamanca, Avda. Hornos Caleros 50, 05003, Ávila, Spain

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0 Water Framework Directive
0 water management
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water management
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Water Framework Directive

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Journal article
Published: 29 May 2021 in Journal of Hydrology
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This paper describes the joint development of two different methods for temporal riveŕs runoff assessment. This is performed through a hybrid approach by means of Multivariate General Linear Models (MGLM; inspired by MLR as a statistical method), and Causal Reasoning (CR; as non-linear ones). This innovative methodological approach, named Hybrid Causal Multivariate Linear Modelling (H-CMLM), is mainly aimed to empower the analysis of temporal hydrological records behaviour. H-CMLM has been successfully applied to three different Spanish basins (Adaja, Mijares and Porma) which were chosen due to their disparate features. Results were divided in quantitative and qualitative. Numerical results show a very high level of equivalence between the average value of temporal dependence provided by MLM module and the continuous behaviour of temporal dependence computed by CR module and visualized through Dependence Mitigation Graph (DMG). This high coherent outcome from both modules makes the analysis much more robust from a stochastic hydrology point of view. Values for average temporal dependence are very useful for the optimal dimensioning of hydraulic infrastructures like reservoirs. Furthermore, given the annual scale of the analysis, water planning and management of several water uses such as domestic water supply, agriculture, industrial demands, among others, can be highly assisted by this new H_C-MLM method.

ACS Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Carmen Patino-Alonso; Santiago Zazo. Hybrid causal multivariate linear modelling (H_CMLM) method for the analysis of temporal rivers runoff. Journal of Hydrology 2021, 599, 126501 .

AMA Style

Jose-Luis Molina, Carmen Patino-Alonso, Santiago Zazo. Hybrid causal multivariate linear modelling (H_CMLM) method for the analysis of temporal rivers runoff. Journal of Hydrology. 2021; 599 ():126501.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Carmen Patino-Alonso; Santiago Zazo. 2021. "Hybrid causal multivariate linear modelling (H_CMLM) method for the analysis of temporal rivers runoff." Journal of Hydrology 599, no. : 126501.

Journal article
Published: 24 May 2021 in Sustainability
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The study of biotic and abiotic factors and their interrelationships is essential in the preservation of sustainable marine ecosystems and for understanding the impact that climate change can have on different species. For instance, phytoplankton are extremely vulnerable to environmental changes and thus studying the factors involved is important for the species’ conservation. This work examines the relationship between phytoplankton and environmental parameters of the eastern equatorial Pacific, known as one of the most biologically rich regions in the world. For this purpose, a new multivariate method called MixSTATICO has been developed, allowing mixed-type data structured in two different groups (environment and species) to be related and measured on a space–time scale. The results obtained show how seasons have an impact on species–environment relations, with the most significant association occurring in November and the weakest during the month of May (change of season). The species Lauderia borealis, Chaetoceros didymus and Gyrodinium sp. were not observed in the coastal profiles during the dry season at most stations, while during the rainy season, the species Dactyliosolen antarcticus, Proboscia alata and Skeletonema costatum were not detected. Using MixSTATICO, species vulnerable to specific geographical locations and environmental variations were identified, making it possible to establish biological indicators for this region.

ACS Style

Mariela González-Narváez; María Fernández-Gómez; Susana Mendes; José-Luis Molina; Omar Ruiz-Barzola; Purificación Galindo-Villardón. Study of Temporal Variations in Species–Environment Association through an Innovative Multivariate Method: MixSTATICO. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5924 .

AMA Style

Mariela González-Narváez, María Fernández-Gómez, Susana Mendes, José-Luis Molina, Omar Ruiz-Barzola, Purificación Galindo-Villardón. Study of Temporal Variations in Species–Environment Association through an Innovative Multivariate Method: MixSTATICO. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (11):5924.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mariela González-Narváez; María Fernández-Gómez; Susana Mendes; José-Luis Molina; Omar Ruiz-Barzola; Purificación Galindo-Villardón. 2021. "Study of Temporal Variations in Species–Environment Association through an Innovative Multivariate Method: MixSTATICO." Sustainability 13, no. 11: 5924.

Article
Published: 15 May 2021 in Water Resources Management
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This paper aims to propose a methodology to evaluate and quantify perturbed groundwater budgets considering the projected reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR). Future groundwater budgets are generated considering different CC temporal Scenarios, RCMs, as well as the status of each Groundwater Body (GwB). The proposed methodology is applied to the Central Mountain Range of Iberian Peninsula (Avila Province). Existing studies show a drastic Reduction on Snow Melting (RSM) and on Cumulative Snow Volume (CSV). This leads to a huge reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR) and on groundwater availability calculated through the indicator Perturbed Exploitation Index (PEI). There are important differences depending on the RCM used, on the temporal CC Scenario and on the GwB considered. Main difficulties and challenges comprise the lack of field data and rigorous studies on modelling of groundwater hydrodynamic modelling. Despite of that, research results show a robust and generalized increase in all Exploitation Indexes (EI). EI increase is of 4.17 % for IP1 (Short Term) RCP 4.5, 14.94 % for IP2 (Medium Term) RCP 4.5, 17.65 % for IP3 (Long Term) RCP 4.5. On the other hand, there is an increase of 9.89 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 19.05 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 35.14 % for IP3 RCP 8.5. Thus, there is a generalised and very important decrease of recharge (PARR) of 59.03 % for IP1 RCP 4.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 4.5, 90.02 % for IP3. Likewise, for RCP 8.5, there is a decrease of 72.69 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 97.90 % for IP3.

ACS Style

José-Luis Molina; Susana Lagüela; Santiago Zazo. Methodology to Evaluate Aquifers Water Budget Alteration Due to Climate Change Impact on the Snow Fraction. Water Resources Management 2021, 35, 2569 -2583.

AMA Style

José-Luis Molina, Susana Lagüela, Santiago Zazo. Methodology to Evaluate Aquifers Water Budget Alteration Due to Climate Change Impact on the Snow Fraction. Water Resources Management. 2021; 35 (8):2569-2583.

Chicago/Turabian Style

José-Luis Molina; Susana Lagüela; Santiago Zazo. 2021. "Methodology to Evaluate Aquifers Water Budget Alteration Due to Climate Change Impact on the Snow Fraction." Water Resources Management 35, no. 8: 2569-2583.

Journal article
Published: 05 May 2021 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Dams are a critical component of infrastructure that provide vital services and protection to human communities and the economy, as well as safeguard from other adverse conditions. In Spain, there are approximately 1225 dams, of which 643 dams are more than 50 years old and 274 dams are located in areas of the high/very high seismic hazard class, and the exposure range is between $356–498 billion. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the risk grade of collapse for dams that have been subjected to seismic processes. For this, a new set of importance factors (IFs) is identified and analysed. Three main concepts outline the methodology comprehensively: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Within this methodology, 5 classes, 17 factors and 47 subfactors were introduced for several dams. The results show that 46 dams could be classified as having a “very high/extreme risk”, with a total cost of repair of approximately $23 million. Currently, technical codes comprise very simplified risk concepts and obsolete IF definitions because they are only based on the construction type and its intended use. This study promotes the adoption of an innovative set of new IFs for the risk assessment of dams under earthquaking in a critical way.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Introducing importance factors (IFs) to estimate a dam's risk of collapse produced by seismic processes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2021, 60, 102311 .

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Introducing importance factors (IFs) to estimate a dam's risk of collapse produced by seismic processes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2021; 60 ():102311.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2021. "Introducing importance factors (IFs) to estimate a dam's risk of collapse produced by seismic processes." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 60, no. : 102311.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2020 in Journal of Structural Engineering
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This paper comprises the search of the optimal geometric parameters (area and volume) for double-arch dams. The approach is structured in several consecutive stages. The process begins with a definition of the problem about Bayesian estimators, to define the dam-shape design values. After that, an iterative sequence of equations calculation was developed until reaching a solution that satisfies the a priori established constraints. A modeling of the optimized dam has been carried out to estimate static and dynamic internal stresses. Data were retrieved from inventories of existing dams, whereas to obtain the unknown data, a Gaussian distribution under hypotheses of the Bayes’ theorem has been employed. This theorem converts the a priori distribution, through unknown parameters, into the a posteriori distribution providing expected estimators. The design of the dam shape is strongly based on the experience, therefore by collecting real information about existing dams a more accurate analysis is possible.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Optimization of Geometric Parameters for Double-Arch Dams through Bayesian Implementation. Journal of Structural Engineering 2020, 146, 04020264 .

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Optimization of Geometric Parameters for Double-Arch Dams through Bayesian Implementation. Journal of Structural Engineering. 2020; 146 (12):04020264.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2020. "Optimization of Geometric Parameters for Double-Arch Dams through Bayesian Implementation." Journal of Structural Engineering 146, no. 12: 04020264.

Journal article
Published: 09 November 2020 in Water
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The uncertainty in traditional hydrological modeling is a challenge that has not yet been overcome. This research aimed to provide a new method called the hybrid causal–hydrological (HCH) method, which consists of the combination of traditional rainfall–runoff models with novel hydrological approaches based on artificial intelligence, called Bayesian causal modeling (BCM). This was implemented by building nine causal models for three sub-basins of the Barbate River Basin (SW Spain). The models were populated by gauging (observing) short runoff series and from long and short hydrological runoff series obtained from the Témez rainfall–runoff model (T-RRM). To enrich the data, all series were synthetically replicated using an ARMA model. Regarding the results, on the one hand differences in the dependence intensities between the long and short series were displayed in the dependence mitigation graphs (DMGs), which were attributable to the insufficient amount of data available from the hydrological records and to climate change processes. The similarities in the temporal dependence propagation (basin memory) and in the symmetry of DMGs validate the reliability of the hybrid methodology, as well as the results generated in this study. Consequently, water planning and management can be substantially improved with this approach.

ACS Style

Santiago Zazo; José-Luis Molina; Verónica Ruiz-Ortiz; Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás; Santiago García-López. Modeling River Runoff Temporal Behavior through a Hybrid Causal–Hydrological (HCH) Method. Water 2020, 12, 3137 .

AMA Style

Santiago Zazo, José-Luis Molina, Verónica Ruiz-Ortiz, Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás, Santiago García-López. Modeling River Runoff Temporal Behavior through a Hybrid Causal–Hydrological (HCH) Method. Water. 2020; 12 (11):3137.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Santiago Zazo; José-Luis Molina; Verónica Ruiz-Ortiz; Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás; Santiago García-López. 2020. "Modeling River Runoff Temporal Behavior through a Hybrid Causal–Hydrological (HCH) Method." Water 12, no. 11: 3137.

Journal article
Published: 05 November 2020 in Journal of Hydrology
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This paper aims to assess fully the spatio-temporal dependence dimensions of inflow across two adjacent and parallel basins and among different time steps through Causality. This is addressed from the perspective of Causal Reasoning, supported by Bayesian modelling, under a novel framework named Bayesian Causal Modelling (BCM). This is applied, through a “concept-proof”, to the Jucar River Basin (the second largest basin of Eastern Spain, characterized by long and severe drought conditions). In this “concept-proof” a double goal is evaluated; first dedicated to a lumped analysis of dependence and second a specific one over dry periods focused on time-horizon of the Jucar basin typical drought (3 years). These challenges comprise the development of two fully connected Bayesian Networks (BNs), one for each challenge populated/trained from historical-inflow records. BNs were designed at a season-scale and consequently, time was upscaled and grouped into Irrigation and Non-Irrigation periods, according to Jucar River Basin Authority operational practices. Results achieved showed that BCM framework satisfactorily captured the spatio-temporal dependencies of systems. Furthermore, BCM is able to answer to some key questions over interdependencies between adjacent and parallel subbasins. Those questions may comprise, the amount of spatial dependences among time series, the temporarily conditionality among subbasins and the spatio-temporal dependence among basins. This provides a relevant insight on the intrinsic spatio-temporal dependence structure of inflow time series in complex basins systems. This approach could be very valuable for water resources planning and management, due to its application power for predicting extreme events (e.g. droughts) as well as improving and optimizing the reservoirs operation rules.

ACS Style

Hector Macian-Sorribes; Jose-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Manuel Pulido-Velázquez. Analysis of spatio-temporal dependence of inflow time series through Bayesian causal modelling. Journal of Hydrology 2020, 597, 125722 .

AMA Style

Hector Macian-Sorribes, Jose-Luis Molina, Santiago Zazo, Manuel Pulido-Velázquez. Analysis of spatio-temporal dependence of inflow time series through Bayesian causal modelling. Journal of Hydrology. 2020; 597 ():125722.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hector Macian-Sorribes; Jose-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Manuel Pulido-Velázquez. 2020. "Analysis of spatio-temporal dependence of inflow time series through Bayesian causal modelling." Journal of Hydrology 597, no. : 125722.

Review
Published: 25 February 2020 in Sustainability
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The concept of sustainability is assumed for this research from a temporal perspective. Rivers represent natural systems with an inherent internal memory on their runoff and, by extension, to their hydrological behavior, that should be identified, characterized and quantified. This memory is formally called temporal dependence and allows quantifying it for each river system. The ability to capture that temporal signature has been analyzed through different methods and techniques. However, there is a high heterogeneity on those methods’ analytical capacities. It is found in this research that the most advanced ones are those whose output provides a dynamic and quantitative assessment of the temporal dependence for each river system runoff. Since the runoff can be split into temporal conditioned runoff fractions, advanced methods provide an important improvement over classic or alternative ones. Being able to characterize the basin by calculating those fractions is a very important progress for water managers that need predictive tools for orienting their water policies to a certain manner. For instance, rivers with large temporal dependence will need to be controlled and gauged by larger hydraulic infrastructures. The application of this approach may produce huge investment savings on hydraulic infrastructures and an environmental impact minimization due to the achieved optimization of the binomial cost-benefit.

ACS Style

José-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín-Casado; María-Carmen Patino-Alonso. Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1720 .

AMA Style

José-Luis Molina, Santiago Zazo, Ana-María Martín-Casado, María-Carmen Patino-Alonso. Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (5):1720.

Chicago/Turabian Style

José-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín-Casado; María-Carmen Patino-Alonso. 2020. "Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods." Sustainability 12, no. 5: 1720.

Preprint content
Published: 13 January 2020
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The are thousands of large dams over the globe. The importance of dams is rapidly increasing due to the impact of climate change on increasing hydrological process variability and on water planning and management need. This study tackles a review for the concrete arch-dams’ design process, from a dual sustainability/safety management approach. On one hand, Sustainability is evaluated through a design optimization for dams´ stability and deformation analysis. On the other hand, safety is directly related to the reduction and consequences of failure risk. For that, several scenarios about stability and deformation, identifying desirable and undesirable actions, were estimated. More than 100 specific parameters regarding dam-reservoir-foundation-sediments system and their interactions have been collected. Also, a summary of mathematical modelling was made, and more than 100 references were summarized. The following consecutive steps, required to design engineering (why act?), maintenance (when to act) and operations activities (how to act), were evaluated: individuation of hazards, definition of failure potential and estimation of consequences (harm to people, assets and environment). Results show that the area to model the dam–foundation interaction is around 3.0 Hd2, the system-damping ratio and vibration period is 8.5% and 0.39 s. Also, maximum elastic and elasto-plastic displacements are ~0.10–0.20 m. The failure probability for stability is 34%, whereas for deformation it is 29%

ACS Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Enrico Zacchei. Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Jose-Luis Molina, Enrico Zacchei. Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Enrico Zacchei. 2020. "Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction." , no. : 1.

Review
Published: 03 January 2020 in Sustainability
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The importance of dams is rapidly increasing due to the impact of climate change on increasing hydrological process variability and on water planning and management need. This study tackles a review for the concrete arch-dams’ design process, from a dual sustainability/safety management approach. Sustainability is evaluated through a design optimization for dams´ stability and deformation analysis; safety is directly related to the reduction and consequences of failure risk. For that, several scenarios about stability and deformation, identifying desirable and undesirable actions, were estimated. More than 100 specific parameters regarding dam-reservoir-foundation-sediments system and their interactions have been collected. Also, a summary of mathematical modelling was made, and more than 100 references were summarized. The following consecutive steps, required to design engineering (why act?), maintenance (when to act) and operations activities (how to act), were evaluated: individuation of hazards, definition of failure potential and estimation of consequences (harm to people, assets and environment). Results are shown in terms of calculated data and relations: the area to model the dam–foundation interaction is around 3.0 Hd2, the system-damping ratio and vibration period is 8.5% and 0.39 s. Also, maximum elastic and elasto-plastic displacements are ~0.10–0.20 m. The failure probability for stability is 34%, whereas for deformation it is 29%.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction Through a Sustainability–Safety Management Approach. Sustainability 2020, 12, 392 .

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction Through a Sustainability–Safety Management Approach. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (1):392.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2020. "Reviewing Arch-Dams’ Building Risk Reduction Through a Sustainability–Safety Management Approach." Sustainability 12, no. 1: 392.

Journal article
Published: 11 December 2019 in Remote Sensing
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This article presents an approach to identify Green Infrastructure (GI), its benefits and condition. This information enables environmental agencies to prioritise conservation, management and restoration strategies accordingly. The study focuses on riparian areas due to their potential to supply Ecosystem Services (ES), such as water quality, biodiversity, soil protection and flood or drought risk reduction. Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRM) related to agriculture and forestry are the type of GI considered specifically within these riparian areas. The approach is based on ES condition indicators, defined by the European Environment Agency (EEA) to support the policy targets of the 2020 Biodiversity Strategy. Indicators that can be assessed through remote sensing techniques are used, namely: capacity to provide ecosystem services, proximity to protected areas, greening response and water stress. Specifically, the approach uses and evaluates the potential of freely available products from the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (CLMS) to monitor GI. Moreover, vegetation and water indices are calculated using data from the Sentinel-2 MSI Level-2A scenes and integrated in the analysis. The approach has been tested in the Italian Po river basin in 2018. Firstly, agriculture and forest NWRM were identified in the riparian areas of the river network. Secondly, the Riparian Zones products from the CLMS local component and the satellite-based indices were linked to the aforementioned ES condition indicators. This led to the development of a pixel-based model that evaluates the identified GI according to: (i) its disposition to provide riparian regulative ES and (ii) its condition in the analysed year. Finally, the model was used to prioritise GI for conservation or restoration initiatives, based on its potential to deliver ES and current condition.

ACS Style

Laura Piedelobo; Andrea Taramelli; Emma Schiavon; Emiliana Valentini; José-Luis Molina; Alessandra Nguyen Xuan; Diego González-Aguilera. Assessment of Green Infrastructure in Riparian Zones Using Copernicus Programme. Remote Sensing 2019, 11, 2967 .

AMA Style

Laura Piedelobo, Andrea Taramelli, Emma Schiavon, Emiliana Valentini, José-Luis Molina, Alessandra Nguyen Xuan, Diego González-Aguilera. Assessment of Green Infrastructure in Riparian Zones Using Copernicus Programme. Remote Sensing. 2019; 11 (24):2967.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Laura Piedelobo; Andrea Taramelli; Emma Schiavon; Emiliana Valentini; José-Luis Molina; Alessandra Nguyen Xuan; Diego González-Aguilera. 2019. "Assessment of Green Infrastructure in Riparian Zones Using Copernicus Programme." Remote Sensing 11, no. 24: 2967.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2019 in Journal of Hydrology
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ACS Style

Gonzalo Carrasco; Jose-Luis Molina; Carmen Patino-Alonso; Marisela Del C. Castillo; Purificación Vicente-Galindo; Purificación Galindo-Villardón. Water quality evaluation through a multivariate statistical HJ-Biplot approach. Journal of Hydrology 2019, 577, 1 .

AMA Style

Gonzalo Carrasco, Jose-Luis Molina, Carmen Patino-Alonso, Marisela Del C. Castillo, Purificación Vicente-Galindo, Purificación Galindo-Villardón. Water quality evaluation through a multivariate statistical HJ-Biplot approach. Journal of Hydrology. 2019; 577 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gonzalo Carrasco; Jose-Luis Molina; Carmen Patino-Alonso; Marisela Del C. Castillo; Purificación Vicente-Galindo; Purificación Galindo-Villardón. 2019. "Water quality evaluation through a multivariate statistical HJ-Biplot approach." Journal of Hydrology 577, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 31 August 2019 in Sustainability
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With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

ACS Style

Anna Sperotto; Josè Luis Molina; Silvia Torresan; Andrea Critto; Manuel Pulido-Velazquez; Antonio Marcomini. Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4764 .

AMA Style

Anna Sperotto, Josè Luis Molina, Silvia Torresan, Andrea Critto, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Antonio Marcomini. Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (17):4764.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anna Sperotto; Josè Luis Molina; Silvia Torresan; Andrea Critto; Manuel Pulido-Velazquez; Antonio Marcomini. 2019. "Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks." Sustainability 11, no. 17: 4764.

Journal article
Published: 26 April 2019 in Water
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Nowadays, a noteworthy temporal alteration of traditional hydrological patterns is being observed, producing a higher variability and more unpredictable extreme events worldwide. This is largely due to global warming, which is generating a growing uncertainty over water system behavior, especially river runoff. Understanding these modifications is a crucial and not trivial challenge that requires new analytical strategies like Causality, addressed by Causal Reasoning. Through Causality over runoff series, the hydrological memory and its logical time-dependency structure have been dynamically/stochastically discovered and characterized. This is done in terms of the runoff dependence strength over time. This has allowed determining and quantifying two opposite temporal-fractions within runoff: Temporally Conditioned/Non-conditioned Runoff (TCR/TNCR). Finally, a successful predictive model is proposed and applied to an unregulated stretch, Mijares river catchment (Jucar river basin, Spain), with a very high time-dependency behavior. This research may have important implications over the knowledge of historical rivers´ behavior and their adaptation. Furthermore, it lays the foundations for reaching an optimum reservoir dimensioning through the building of predictive models of runoff behavior. Regarding reservoir capacity, this research would imply substantial economic/environmental savings. Also, a more sustainable management of river basins through more reliable control reservoirs’ operation is expected to be achieved.

ACS Style

José-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín. Causal Reasoning: Towards Dynamic Predictive Models for Runoff Temporal Behavior of High Dependence Rivers. Water 2019, 11, 877 .

AMA Style

José-Luis Molina, Santiago Zazo, Ana-María Martín. Causal Reasoning: Towards Dynamic Predictive Models for Runoff Temporal Behavior of High Dependence Rivers. Water. 2019; 11 (5):877.

Chicago/Turabian Style

José-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín. 2019. "Causal Reasoning: Towards Dynamic Predictive Models for Runoff Temporal Behavior of High Dependence Rivers." Water 11, no. 5: 877.

Research paper
Published: 18 December 2018 in Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering
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The aim of this paper is to define the optimum shape of double-arch dams. This is studied here considering the shape of existing double-arch dams located in Spain. The analysis has been carried out in two consecutive stages. The first one refers to defining issues about Bayesian estimators to obtain the value for designing the optimum dam shape. In the second stage, the shape equations are iterated step-by-step. Data are taken from the inventory of Spanish existing dams. To obtain the non-available data, the Gaussian distribution under the Bayesian theorem hypotheses has been employed. This theorem converts the prior distribution using unknown parameters into the posterior distribution which provides expected parameters, i.e. the Bayesian estimators. The main challenge of the analysis is to identify the parameters which define the optimum shape of an existing dam. For this, over 30 dams have been selected and over 700 data have been collected. One of the main practical implications of this research comprises a reduction of the concrete volume, which implies a reduction of the financial costs and the environmental impact.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Shape Optimization of Double-Arch Dams by Using Parameters Obtained Through Bayesian Estimators. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering 2018, 43, 649 -662.

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Shape Optimization of Double-Arch Dams by Using Parameters Obtained Through Bayesian Estimators. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering. 2018; 43 (4):649-662.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2018. "Shape Optimization of Double-Arch Dams by Using Parameters Obtained Through Bayesian Estimators." Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering 43, no. 4: 649-662.

Conference paper
Published: 15 November 2018 in Proceedings of 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3)
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A significant spatio-temporal alteration of traditional patterns for hydrological components´ behavior is currently being observed. In this sense, a higher variability, more frequent and unpredictable extreme events (rainfall, flood and drought) occur in many areas. This is primarily due to global warming, which is producing a growing variability and uncertainty of water systems and specially, rivers´ runoff. The understanding of these modifications and, consequently, this adaptive rivers´ behavior is not trivial and requires new approaches incorporating dynamic and stochastic approaches. Causal Reasoning, supported by Bayesian modelling is a powerful stochastic approach to extract the time dependent logical structure that inherently underlies hydrological series. The river basin memory is dynamically and stochastically characterized in terms of the runoff dependence strength over the time. In this study, by means of causality, the Temporally Conditioned/Non-conditioned runoff (TCR/TNCR) fractions are identified and quantified. This research has important implications and applications, such as to the knowledge of the historical adaptive rivers´ behavior, or to reservoirs´ dimensioning optimization. This approach has been successfully applied to an unregulated river basin in Spain with a very high dependence temporal runoff behavior, within Júcar river basin (Mijares). Having a tool that could dynamically adjust the reservoir and/or channel capacity may help for reaching the optimal design and dimensioning of hydraulic infrastructures, which involves a lot of economic savings. Further work will largely comprise the introduction of the spatial dimension so the tool can integrated a full spatio-temporal analysis. Furthermore, the analyzed runoff behavior trends will be further used for building predictive models.

ACS Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín. CAUSAL REASONING: AN ADAPTIVE/PREDICTIVE APPROACH FOR RUNOFF TEMPORAL BEHAVIOUR OF HIGH DEPENDENCE RIVERS. Proceedings of 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3) 2018, 1 .

AMA Style

Jose-Luis Molina, Santiago Zazo, Ana-María Martín. CAUSAL REASONING: AN ADAPTIVE/PREDICTIVE APPROACH FOR RUNOFF TEMPORAL BEHAVIOUR OF HIGH DEPENDENCE RIVERS. Proceedings of 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3). 2018; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jose-Luis Molina; Santiago Zazo; Ana-María Martín. 2018. "CAUSAL REASONING: AN ADAPTIVE/PREDICTIVE APPROACH FOR RUNOFF TEMPORAL BEHAVIOUR OF HIGH DEPENDENCE RIVERS." Proceedings of 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3) , no. : 1.

Conference paper
Published: 10 October 2018 in MATEC Web of Conferences
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This research is focused on the optimum area and volume estimation of double arch dams. The first stage of the methodology refers to defining issues about Bayesian estimators to obtain the value for designing the optimum dam shape. After that, the shape equations are iterated step-bystep to obtain the optimal solution. From the inventory of existing dams, it is possible to extract many important values although they are not sufficient. To obtain the non-available data, the Gaussian distribution under the Bayesian theorem hypotheses has been employed. This theorem converts the prior distribution using unknown parameters into the posterior distribution which provides expected estimators. The choice of the dam shape is strongly based on the experience, therefore by knowing and applying real information of existing dams it is possible to carry out a more precise analysis.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Estimation of optimal area and volume for double arch-dams. MATEC Web of Conferences 2018, 211, 14002 .

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Estimation of optimal area and volume for double arch-dams. MATEC Web of Conferences. 2018; 211 ():14002.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2018. "Estimation of optimal area and volume for double arch-dams." MATEC Web of Conferences 211, no. : 14002.

Conference paper
Published: 10 October 2018 in MATEC Web of Conferences
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The aim of this paper is to analyse the damage on gravity dams through artificial earthquakes from two methods. The first procedure defines the performance and the response curve of concrete gravity dams using a harmonic function which establishes linear displacements. The other procedure to obtain the artificial earthquake defines the power spectral density function consistent with the response spectrum. This artificial accelerogram is necessary to quantify the response curve of concrete gravity dams in the time domain. The seismic activity in Spain is not frequent, therefore it is often difficult to select real accelerograms to perform a complete seismic analysis, which makes artificial accelerograms extremely useful. Finally, combining these two procedures, a damage index is determined for assessing the crack’s magnitude. These both efficient and practical procedures are useful to develop further complicated analysis.

ACS Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. Damage estimation on concrete gravity dams through artificial accelerograms. MATEC Web of Conferences 2018, 211, 14001 .

AMA Style

Enrico Zacchei, José Luis Molina. Damage estimation on concrete gravity dams through artificial accelerograms. MATEC Web of Conferences. 2018; 211 ():14001.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Enrico Zacchei; José Luis Molina. 2018. "Damage estimation on concrete gravity dams through artificial accelerograms." MATEC Web of Conferences 211, no. : 14001.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2018 in Remote Sensing
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Increasing flood hazards worldwide due to the intensification of hydrological events and the development of adaptation-mitigation strategies are key challenges that society must address. To minimize flood damages, one of the crucial factors is the identification of flood prone areas through fluvial hydraulic modelling in which a detailed knowledge of the terrain plays an important role for reliable results. Recent studies have demonstrated the suitability of the Reduced Cost Aerial Precision Photogrammetry (RC-APP) technique for fluvial applications by accurate-detailed-reliable Digital Terrain Models (DTMs, up to: ≈100 point/m2; vertical-uncertainty: ±0.06 m). This work aims to provide an optimal relationship between point densities and vertical-uncertainties to generate more reliable fluvial hazard maps by fluvial-DTMs. This is performed through hydraulic models supported by geometric models that are obtained from a joint strategy based on Structure from Motion and Cloth Simulation Filtering algorithms. Furthermore, to evaluate vertical-DTM, uncertainty is proposed as an alternative approach based on the method of robust estimators. This offers an error dispersion value analogous to the concept of standard deviation of a Gaussian distribution without requiring normality tests. This paper reinforces the suitability of new geomatic solutions as a reliable-competitive source of accurate DTMs at the service of a flood hazard assessment.

ACS Style

Santiago Zazo; Pablo Rodríguez-Gonzálvez; José-Luis Molina; Diego González-Aguilera; Carlos Andrés Agudelo-Ruiz; David Hernández-López. Flood Hazard Assessment Supported by Reduced Cost Aerial Precision Photogrammetry. Remote Sensing 2018, 10, 1566 .

AMA Style

Santiago Zazo, Pablo Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, José-Luis Molina, Diego González-Aguilera, Carlos Andrés Agudelo-Ruiz, David Hernández-López. Flood Hazard Assessment Supported by Reduced Cost Aerial Precision Photogrammetry. Remote Sensing. 2018; 10 (10):1566.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Santiago Zazo; Pablo Rodríguez-Gonzálvez; José-Luis Molina; Diego González-Aguilera; Carlos Andrés Agudelo-Ruiz; David Hernández-López. 2018. "Flood Hazard Assessment Supported by Reduced Cost Aerial Precision Photogrammetry." Remote Sensing 10, no. 10: 1566.

Technical note
Published: 15 June 2018 in ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
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Proper control and planning of water resource use, especially in those catchments with large surface, climatic variability and intensive irrigation activity, is essential for a sustainable water management. Decision support systems based on useful tools involving main stakeholders and hydrological planning offices of the river basins play a key role. The free availability of Earth observation products with high temporal resolution, such as the European Sentinel-2B, has allowed us to combine remote sensing with cadastral and agronomic data. This paper introduces HidroMap to the scientific community, an open source tool as a geographic information system (GIS) organized in two different modules, desktop-GIS and web-GIS, with complementary functions and based on PostgreSQL/PostGIS database. Through an effective methodology HidroMap allows monitoring irrigation activity, managing unregulated irrigation, and optimizing available fluvial surveillance resources using satellite imagery. This is possible thanks to the automatic download, processing and storage of satellite products within field data provided by the River Surveillance Agency (RSA) and the Hydrological Planning Office (HPO). The tool was successfully validated in Duero Hydrographic Basin along the 2017 summer irrigation period. In conclusion, HidroMap comprised an important support tool for water management tasks and decision making tackled by Duero Hydrographic Confederation which can be adapted to any additional need and transferred to other river basin organizations.

ACS Style

Laura Piedelobo; Damián Ortega-Terol; Susana Del Pozo; David Hernández-López; Rocio Ballesteros; Miguel A. Moreno; José-Luis Molina; Diego González-Aguilera. HidroMap: A New Tool for Irrigation Monitoring and Management Using Free Satellite Imagery. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2018, 7, 220 .

AMA Style

Laura Piedelobo, Damián Ortega-Terol, Susana Del Pozo, David Hernández-López, Rocio Ballesteros, Miguel A. Moreno, José-Luis Molina, Diego González-Aguilera. HidroMap: A New Tool for Irrigation Monitoring and Management Using Free Satellite Imagery. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2018; 7 (6):220.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Laura Piedelobo; Damián Ortega-Terol; Susana Del Pozo; David Hernández-López; Rocio Ballesteros; Miguel A. Moreno; José-Luis Molina; Diego González-Aguilera. 2018. "HidroMap: A New Tool for Irrigation Monitoring and Management Using Free Satellite Imagery." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 7, no. 6: 220.