The challenge of distinguishing genetic drift from selection remains a central focus of population genetics. Time-sampled data may provide a powerful tool for distinguishing these processes, and we here propose approximate Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and analytical methods for the inference of demography and selection from time course data. Utilizing these novel statistical and computational tools, we evaluate whole-genome datasets of an influenza A H1N1 strain in the presence and absence of oseltamivir (an inhibitor of neuraminidase) collected at thirteen time points. Results reveal a striking consistency amongst the three estimation procedures developed, showing strongly increased selection pressure in the presence of drug treatment. Importantly, these approaches re-identify the known oseltamivir resistance site, successfully validating the approaches used. Enticingly, a number of previously unknown variants have also been identified as being positively selected. Results are interpreted in the light of Fisher's Geometric Model, allowing for a quantification of the increased distance to optimum exerted by the presence of drug, and theoretical predictions regarding the distribution of beneficial fitness effects of contending mutations are empirically tested. Further, given the fit to expectations of the Geometric Model, results suggest the ability to predict certain aspects of viral evolution in response to changing host environments and novel selective pressures. In recent years, considerable attention has been given to the evolution of drug resistance in the influenza A H1N1 strain. As a major annual cause of morbidity and mortality, combined with the rapid global spread of drug resistance, influenza remains as one of the most important global health concerns. Our work here focuses on a novel multi-faceted population-genetic approach utilizing unique whole-genome multi-time point experimental datasets in both the presence and absence of drug treatment. In addition, we present novel theoretical results and two newly developed and widely applicable statistical methodologies for utilizing time-sampled data – with a focus on distinguishing the relative contribution of genetic drift from that of positive and purifying selection. Results illustrate the available mutational paths to drug resistance, and offer important insights in to the mode and tempo of adaptation in a viral population.

Antimicrobial resistance is a silent pandemic exacerbated by the uncontrolled use of antibiotics. Since the discovery of penicillin, we have been largely dependent on microbe-derived small molecules to treat bacterial infections. However, the golden era of antibiotics is coming to an end, as the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance against these antibacterial compounds are outpacing the discovery and development of new antibiotics. The current antibiotic market suffers from various shortcomings, including the absence of profitability and investment. The most important underlying issue of traditional antibiotics arises from the inherent properties of these small molecules being mostly broad-spectrum and non-programmable. As the scientific knowledge of microbes progresses, the scientific community is starting to explore entirely novel approaches to tackling antimicrobial resistance. One of the most prominent approaches is to develop next-generation antibiotics. In this review, we discuss three innovations of next-generation antibiotics compared to traditional antibiotics as specificity, evolvability, and non-immunogenicity. We present a number of potential antimicrobial agents, including bacteriophage-based therapy, CRISPR-Cas-based antimicrobials, and microbiome-derived antimicrobial agents. These alternative antimicrobial agents possess innovative properties that may overcome the inherent shortcomings of traditional antibiotics, and some of these next-generation antibiotics are not merely far-fetched ideas but are currently in clinical development. We further discuss some related issues and challenges such as infection diagnostics and regulatory frameworks that still need to be addressed to bring these next-generation antibiotics to the antibiotic market as viable products to combat antimicrobial resistance using a diversified set of strategies.

The rapid evolution of drug resistance remains a critical public health concern. The treatment of influenza A virus (IAV) has proven particularly challenging, due to the ability of the virus to develop resistance against current antivirals and vaccines. Here, we evaluate a novel antiviral drug therapy, favipiravir, for which the mechanism of action in IAV involves an interaction with the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase resulting in an effective increase in the viral mutation rate. We used an experimental evolution framework, combined with novel population genetic method development for inference from time-sampled data, to evaluate the effectiveness of favipiravir against IAV. Evaluating whole genome polymorphism data across 15 time points under multiple drug concentrations and in controls, we present the first evidence for the ability of IAV populations to effectively adapt to low concentrations of favipiravir. In contrast, under high concentrations, we observe population extinction, indicative of mutational meltdown. We discuss the observed dynamics with respect to the evolutionary forces at play and emphasize the utility of evolutionary theory to inform drug development.

During his well-known debate with Fisher regarding the phenotypic dataset of Panaxia dominula, Wright (1948) suggested fluctuating selection as a potential explanation for the observed change in allele frequencies. This model has since been invoked in a number of analyses, with the focus of discussion centering mainly on random or oscillatory fluctuations of selection intensities. Here, we present a novel method to consider non-random changes in selection intensities using Wright-Fisher approximate Bayesian (ABC)-based approaches, in order to detect and evaluate a change in selection strength from time-sampled data. This novel method jointly estimates the position of a change point as well as the strength of both corresponding selection coefficients (and dominance for diploid cases) from the allele trajectory. The simulation studies of this method reveal the combinations of parameter ranges and input values that optimize performance, thus indicating optimal experimental design strategies. We apply this approach to both the historical dataset of Panaxia dominula in order to shed light on this historical debate, as well as to whole-genome time-serial data from influenza virus in order to identify sites with changing selection intensities in response to drug treatment.