Climate change exerts significant impacts on regional agricultural production. This study assesses the implications of climate change on winter wheat yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), utilizing bias-corrected climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for mid-21st century (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). These projections were incorporated into the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Wheat model to forecast potential alterations in winter wheat production. Initial findings reveal that uncorrected CMIP6 projections underestimated temperature and precipitation while overestimating solar radiation across the southern 3H Plain. Following bias correction through the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method, the regional average biases for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were reduced by 18.3%, 5.6%, and 30.7%, respectively. Under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, mid-21st century simulations predicted a 13% increase in winter wheat yields. Late 21st century projections indicated yield increases of 11.3% and 3.6% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with a notable 8.4% decrease in yields south of 36° N under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The analysis of climate change factors and winter wheat yields in the 3H Plain under both scenarios identified precipitation as the key contributing factor to yield increases in the northern 3H Plain, while temperature limitations were the primary constraint on yields in the southern region. Consequently, adaptive strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts, with a particular focus on addressing the challenges posed by elevated temperature in the southern 3H Plain.

One of the main water vapor sources of eastern China is the Bay of Bengal, over which the circulation is influenced by the Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (TIOD). The TIOD has a long-lasting effect on weather patterns, which in turn influence the rice yield and quality in eastern China, such as in Jiangsu Province. To identify the main mechanism involved, we perform a detailed investigation of the connections between the TIOD-like sea surface temperature (SST) and the climatic suitability for growing rice, and the subsequent rice yield anomalies, in Jiangsu Province. In particular, we compare the relationships, and identify the underlying mechanisms, of TIOD SST with suitable sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation during the period of rice culture in the province. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) results show that the TIOD-like SST has a close correlation with the rice yield anomalies, with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.43 for 53 years, passing the 99% significance level. Furthermore, in the negative TIOD-like SST years, the background circulation weakens the transport effect of the atmospheric river through which water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal to eastern China. This decreased amount of transported water vapor decreases the precipitation and total cloud cover in the province. In turn, this significantly increases the sunshine duration, which plays a key role in rice yield anomalies. The increased sunshine duration and higher temperatures lead to positive rice yield anomalies, and vice versa. Our findings highlight that climatic factors, such as TIOD-like SST, have a far-reaching influence on agricultural production (in this case, rice yield), and thus special attention should be paid to interdisciplinary research in the fields of climate and agriculture.

The offshore waters of China are a typical monsoon−affected area where the significant wave height (SWH) is strongly influenced by the different seasonal mean flow in winter and summer. However, limited in situ validations of the SWH have been performed on the China–France Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT) in these waters. This study focused on validating CFOSAT nadir SWH data with SWH data from in situ buoy observations for China’s offshore waters and the Haiyang−2B (HY−2B) satellite, from July 2019 to December 2021. The validation against the buoy data showed that the relative absolute error has a seasonal cycle, varying in a narrow range near 35%. The RMSE of the CFOSAT nadir SWH was 0.29 m when compared against in situ observations, and CFOSAT was found to be more likely to overestimate the SWH under calm sea conditions. The sea−surface winds play a key role in calm sea conditions. The spatial distributions of the CFOSAT and HY−2B seasonal SWHs were similar, with a two−year mean SWH−field correlation coefficient of 0.98. Moreover, the coherence between the two satellites’ SWH variance increased with SWH magnitude. Our study indicates that, in such typical monsoon−influenced waters, attention should be given to the influence of sea conditions on the accuracy of CFOSAT SWH, particularly in studies that combine data from multiple, long−duration space−based sensors.

Understanding future changes in crop phenology and climate suitability is essential for sustaining winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain under climate change. This study integrates bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections, the DSSAT CERES-Wheat crop model, and Random Forest analysis to assess spatiotemporal shifts in winter wheat phenology and climate suitability. The assessment focuses on the mid- (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate that the vegetative and whole growing periods (VGP and WGP) will be extended in the mid-century but shorten by the late century. In contrast, the reproductive growing period (RGP) will be slightly reduced in the mid-century and extended under high emissions in the late century. Temperature suitability is projected to increase during the VGP and WGP but decline during the RGP. Precipitation suitability generally improves, except for a decrease during the reproductive period south of 32° N. Solar radiation suitability is expected to decline across all stages. Temperature is identified as the primary driver of phenological changes, with solar radiation and precipitation playing increasingly important roles in the mid- and late 21st century, respectively. Adaptive strategies, including the adoption of heat-tolerant varieties, longer reproductive periods, and earlier sowing, are recommended to enhance yield stability under future climate conditions.