Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘reinventing the wheel’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘having tunnel vision’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

Mitigating nutrient losses from anthropogenic nonpoint sources is today of particular importance for improving the water quality of numerous freshwater lakes worldwide. Several empirical relationships between land use and in‐lake water quality variables have been developed, but they are often weak, which can in part be attributed to lack of detailed information about land use activities or point sources. We examined a comprehensive data set comprising land use data, point‐source information, and in‐lake water quality for 414 Danish lakes. By excluding point‐source‐influenced lakes (n = 210), the strength in relationship (R²) between in‐lake total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and the proportion of agricultural land use in the watershed increased markedly, from 10–12% to 39–42% for deep lakes and from 10–12% to 21–23% for shallow lakes, with the highest increase for TN. Relationships between TP and agricultural land use were even stronger for lakes with rivers in their watershed (55%) compared to lakes without (28%), indicating that rivers mediate a stronger linkage between landscape activity and lake water quality by providing a “delivery” mechanism for excess nutrients in the watershed. When examining the effect of different near‐freshwater land zones in contrast to the entire watershed, relationships generally improved with size of zone (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 m from the edge of lake and streams) but were by far strongest using the entire watershed. The proportion of agricultural land use in the entire watershed was best in explaining lake water quality, both relative to estimated nutrient surplus at agricultural field level and near‐lake land use, which somewhat contrasts typical strategies of management policies that mainly target agricultural nutrient applications and implementation of near‐water buffer zones. This study suggests that transport mechanisms within the whole catchment are important for the nutrient export to lakes. Hence, the whole watershed should be considered when managing nutrient loadings to lakes, and future policies should ideally target measures that reduce the proportion of cultivated land in the watershed to successfully improve lake water quality.