Background: Despite the rising number of older adults with medical encounters for opioid misuse, dependence, and poisoning, little is known about patterns of prescription opioid dose and their association with risk for opioid-related adverse events (ORAEs) in older patients. The study aims to compare trajectories of prescribed opioid doses in 6 months preceding an incident ORAE for cases and a matched control group of older patients with chronic noncancer pain (CNCP). Methods and findings: We conducted a nested case–control study within a cohort of older (≥65 years) patients diagnosed with CNCP who were new users of prescription opioids, assembled using a 5% national random sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2011 to 2018. From the cohort with a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, we identified 3,103 incident ORAE cases with ≥1 opioid prescription in 6 months preceding the event, and 3,103 controls matched on sex, age, and time since opioid initiation. Key exposure was trajectories of prescribed opioid morphine milligram equivalent (MME) daily dosage over 6 months before the incident ORAE or matched controls. Among the cases and controls, 2,192 (70.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 77.1 (7.1) years. Four prescribed opioid trajectories before the incident ORAE diagnosis or matched date emerged: gradual dose discontinuation (from ≤3 to 0 daily MME, 1,456 [23.5%]), gradual dose increase (from 0 to >3 daily MME, 1,878 [30.3%]), consistent low dose (between 3 and 5 daily MME, 1,510 [24.3%]), and consistent moderate dose (>20 daily MME, 1,362 [22.0%]). Few older patients (<5%) were prescribed a mean daily dose of ≥90 daily MME during 6 months before diagnosis or matched date. Patients with gradual dose discontinuation versus those with a consistent low dose, moderate dose, and increase dose were more likely to be younger (65 to 74 years), Midwest US residents, and receiving no low-income subsidy. Compared to patients with gradual dose discontinuation, those with gradual dose increase (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8 to 4.0; P < 0.001), consistent low dose (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 3.2 to 4.6; P < 0.001), and consistent moderate dose (aOR = 8.5; 95% CI 6.8 to 10.7; P < 0.001) had a higher risk of ORAE, after adjustment for covariates. Our main findings remained robust in the sensitivity analysis using a cohort study with inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses. Major limitations include the limited generalizability of the study findings and lack of information on illicit opioid use, which prevents understanding the clinical dose threshold level that increases the risk of ORAE in older adults. Conclusions: In this sample of older patients who are Medicare beneficiaries, 4 prescription opioid dose trajectories were identified, with most prescribed doses below 90 daily MME within 6 months before ORAE or matched date. An increased risk for ORAE was observed among older patients with a gradual increase in dose or among those with a consistent low-to-moderate dose of prescribed opioids when compared to patients with opioid dose discontinuation. Whether older patients are susceptible to low opioid doses warrants further investigations.

Pneumonia is the leading cause of hospitalization in pediatric patients. Disease severity greatly influences pneumonia progression and adverse health outcomes such as hospital readmission. Hospital readmissions have become a measure of healthcare quality to reduce excess expenditures. The aim of this study was to examine 30-day all-cause readmission rates and evaluate the association between pneumonia severity and readmission among pediatric pneumonia hospitalizations. Using 2018 Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of pediatric hospitalizations for pneumonia. Pneumonia severity was defined by the presence of respiratory failure, sepsis, mechanical ventilation, dependence on long-term supplemental oxygen, and/or respiratory intubation. Outcomes of interest were 30-day all-cause readmission, length of stay, and cost. The rate of 30-day readmission for the total sample was 5.9%, 4.7% for non-severe pneumonia, and 8.7% for severe pneumonia (p < 0.01). Among those who were readmitted, hospitalizations for severe pneumonia had a longer length of stay (6.5 vs. 5.4 days, p < 0.01) and higher daily cost (USD 3246 vs. USD 2679, p < 0.01) than admissions for non-severe pneumonia. Factors associated with 30-day readmission were pneumonia severity, immunosuppressive conditions, length of stay, and hospital case volume. To reduce potentially preventable readmissions, clinical interventions to improve the disease course and hospital system interventions are necessary.

Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US. Patients with pain conditions have higher suicidal risks. In a systematic review searching observational studies from multiple sources (e.g., MEDLINE) from 1 January 2000–12 September 2020, we evaluated existing suicide prediction models’ (SPMs) performance and identified risk factors and their derived data sources among patients with pain conditions. The suicide-related outcomes included suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, suicide deaths, and suicide behaviors. Among the 87 studies included (with 8 SPM studies), 107 suicide risk factors (grouped into 27 categories) were identified. The most frequently occurring risk factor category was depression and their severity (33%). Approximately 20% of the risk factor categories would require identification from data sources beyond structured data (e.g., clinical notes). For 8 SPM studies (only 2 performing validation), the reported prediction metrics/performance varied: C-statistics (n = 3 studies) ranged 0.67–0.84, overall accuracy(n = 5): 0.78–0.96, sensitivity(n = 2): 0.65–0.91, and positive predictive values(n = 3): 0.01–0.43. Using the modified Quality in Prognosis Studies tool to assess the risk of biases, four SPM studies had moderate-to-high risk of biases. This systematic review identified a comprehensive list of risk factors that may improve predicting suicidal risks for patients with pain conditions. Future studies need to examine reasons for performance variations and SPM’s clinical utility.

Pneumonia is the leading cause of hospitalization in pediatric patients. Disease severity greatly influences pneumonia progression and adverse health outcomes such as hospital readmission. Hospital readmissions have become a measure of healthcare quality to reduce excess expenditures. The aim of this study was to examine 30-day all-cause readmission rates and evaluate the association between pneumonia severity and readmission among pediatric pneumonia hospitalizations. Using 2018 Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD), we conducted a cross-sectional study of pediatric hospitalizations for pneumonia. Pneumonia severity was defined by the presence of respiratory failure, sepsis, mechanical ventilation, dependence on long-term supplemental oxygen, and/or respiratory intubation. Outcomes of interest were 30-day all-cause readmission, length of stay, and cost. The rate of 30-day readmission for the total sample was 5.9%, 4.7% for non-severe pneumonia, and 8.7% for severe pneumonia (p<0.01). Among those who were readmitted, hospitalizations for severe pneumonia had a longer length of stay (6.5 vs. 5.4 days, p<0.01) and higher daily cost ($3,246 vs. $2,679, p<0.01) than admissions for non-severe pneumonia. Factors associated with 30-day readmission were pneumonia severity, immunosuppressive conditions, length of stay, and hospital case volume. To reduce potentially preventable readmissions, clinical interventions to improve the disease course and hospital system interventions are necessary.