This article aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation forecasts produced by CMA-WSP v2.0 (version 2 of the China Meteorological Administration Wind and Solar Energy Prediction System) and to explore the application of machine learning algorithms from the scikit-learn Python library to improve the solar radiation prediction made by the CMA-WSP v2.0. It is found that the performance of the solar radiation forecasting from the CMA-WSP v2.0 is closely related to the weather conditions, with notable diurnal fluctuations. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) produced by the CMA-WSP v2.0 is approximately 74% between 11:00 and 13:00. However, the MAPE ranges from 193% to 242% at 07:00–08:00 and 17:00–18:00, which is greater than that observed at other daytime periods. The MAPE is relatively low (high) for both sunny and cloudy (overcast and rainy) conditions, with a high probability of an absolute percentage error below 25% (above 100%). The forecasts tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observed solar radiation in sunny and cloudy (overcast and rainy) conditions. By applying machine learning models (such as linear regression, decision trees, K-nearest neighbors, random forests regression, adaptive boosting, and gradient boosting regression) to revise the solar radiation forecasts, the MAPE produced by the CMA-WSP v2.0 is significantly reduced. The reduction in the MAPE is closely connected to the weather conditions. The models of K-nearest neighbors, random forests regression, and decision trees can reduce the MAPE in all weather conditions. The K-nearest neighbor model exhibits the most optimal performance among these models, particularly in rainy conditions. The random forest regression model demonstrates the second-best performance compared to that of the K-nearest neighbor model. The gradient boosting regression model has been observed to reduce the MAPE of the CMA-WSP v2.0 in all weather conditions except rainy. In contrast, the adaptive boosting (linear regression) model exhibited a diminished capacity to improve the CMA-WSP v2.0 solar radiation prediction, with a slight reduction in MAPE observed only in sunny (sunny and cloudy) conditions. In addition, the input feature selection has a considerable influence on the performance of the machine learning model. The incorporation of the time series data associated with the diurnal variation of solar radiation as an input feature can further improve the model’s performance.

This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of four scenario experiments using the CMA_WSP, WRF, and WRF_FITCH models to enhance forecasts of hub-height wind speeds at multiple wind farms in Northern China, particularly under significant wind speed fluctuations during high wind conditions. The experiments apply various wind speed calculation methods, including the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (ST) and wind farm parameterization (WFP), within a 9 km resolution framework. Data from four geographically distinct stations were analyzed to assess their forecast accuracy over a 72 h period, focusing on the transitional wind events characterized by substantial fluctuations. The CMA_WSP model with the ST method (CMOST) achieved the highest scores across the evaluation metrics. Meanwhile, the WRF_FITCH model with the WFP method (FETA) demonstrated superior performance to the other WRF models, achieving the lowest RMSE and a greater stability. Nevertheless, all models encountered difficulties in predicting the exact timing of extreme wind events. This study also explores the effects of these methods on the wind power density (WPD) distribution, emphasizing the boundary layer’s influence at the hub-heighthub-height of 85 m. This influence leads to significant variations in the central and coastal regions. In contrast to other methods that account for the comprehensive effects of the entire boundary layer, the ST method primarily relies on the near-surface 10 m wind speed to calculate the hub-height wind speed. These findings provide important insights for enhancing wind speed and WPD forecasts under transitional weather conditions.

Aerosol dry deposition is an important sink for particulate matter and a source of uncertainty in air quality modeling. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with CUACE (WRF-CUACE), we quantified how three aerosol dry deposition schemes and satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) information affected PM_2.5 dry removal and near-surface PM_2.5 over central and eastern China in January 2022. The schemes were abbreviated as Z01, E20, and PZ10, respectively. A fourth simulation (PZ10_MLAI) used PZ10 but replaced the baseline LAI dataset with a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) constrained LAI field. Hourly PM_2.5 was evaluated with the China National Environmental Monitoring Center network. The schemes produced pronounced, size-dependent differences in deposition velocities, with a pronounced spread in the 0 to 2.5 µm average and more than one order of magnitude spread in the accumulation mode diagnostic, leading to distinct regional mean PM_2.5 dry deposition fluxes. The mean PM_2.5 flux increased by 5.9% in E20 relative to Z01 and decreased by 54.4% in PZ10. The MODIS LAI adjustment changed the PZ10 mean flux by 0.42%. The flux contrasts yielded coherent PM_2.5 responses, with E20 reducing near-surface concentrations by about 10 to 30% and PZ10 increasing them by about 20 to 60%, reaching about 80 to 100% in parts of southern China. Domain mean correlations ranged from 0.61 to 0.65 and PZ10-based simulations exhibited near-zero mean bias. Although MODIS LAI effects were modest for this winter month, local PM_2.5 differences commonly remained within about 4% and approached 6 to 10%, indicating that satellite LAI constraints can be important for multi-year and decadal applications.