Improving the proportion of patients diagnosed with early-stage cancer is a key priority of the World Health Organisation. In many tumour groups, screening programmes have led to improvements in survival, but patient selection and risk stratification are key challenges. In addition, there are concerns about limited diagnostic workforces, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, placing a strain on pathology and radiology services. In this review, we discuss how artificial intelligence algorithms could assist clinicians in (1) screening asymptomatic patients at risk of cancer, (2) investigating and triaging symptomatic patients, and (3) more effectively diagnosing cancer recurrence. We provide an overview of the main artificial intelligence approaches, including historical models such as logistic regression, as well as deep learning and neural networks, and highlight their early diagnosis applications. Many data types are suitable for computational analysis, including electronic healthcare records, diagnostic images, pathology slides and peripheral blood, and we provide examples of how these data can be utilised to diagnose cancer. We also discuss the potential clinical implications for artificial intelligence algorithms, including an overview of models currently used in clinical practice. Finally, we discuss the potential limitations and pitfalls, including ethical concerns, resource demands, data security and reporting standards.

Lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths in both sexes combined. Recent years have seen major advances in the diagnostic and treatment options for patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), including the routine use of 2-deoxy-2[¹⁸F]-fluoro-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT) in staging and response evaluation, minimally invasive endoscopic biopsy, targeted radiotherapy, minimally invasive surgery, and molecular and immunotherapies. In this review, the central roles of CT and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT in staging and response in both NSCLC and malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) are critically assessed. The Tumour Node Metastases (TNM-8) staging systems for NSCLC and MPM are presented with critical appraisal of the strengths and pitfalls of imaging. Overviews of the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST 1.1) for NSCLC and the modified RECIST criteria for MPM are provided, together with discussion of the benefits and limitations of these anatomical-based tools. Metabolic response assessment (not evaluated by RECIST 1.1) will be explored. We introduce the Positron Emission Tomography Response Criteria in Solid Tumours (PERCIST 1.0) to include its advantages and challenges. The limitations of both anatomical and metabolic assessment criteria when applied to NSCLC treated with immunotherapy and the important concept of pseudoprogression are addressed with reference to immune RECIST (iRECIST). Separate consideration is given to the diagnosis and follow up of solitary pulmonary nodules with reference to the British Thoracic Society guidelines and Fleischner guidelines and use of the Brock (CT-based) and Herder (addition of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT) models for assessing malignant potential. We discuss how these models inform decisions by the multidisciplinary team, including referral of suspicious nodules for non-surgical management in patients unsuitable for surgery. We briefly outline current lung screening systems being used in the UK, Europe and North America. Emerging roles for MRI in lung cancer imaging are reviewed. The use of whole-body MRI in diagnosing and staging NSCLC is discussed with reference to the recent multicentre Streamline L trial. The potential use of diffusion-weighted MRI to distinguish tumour from radiotherapy-induced lung toxicity is discussed. We briefly summarise the new PET-CT radiotracers being developed to evaluate specific aspects of cancer biology, other than glucose uptake. Finally, we describe how CT, MRI and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT are moving from primarily diagnostic tools for lung cancer towards having utility in prognostication and personalised medicine with the agency of artificial intelligence.

Surveillance is universally recommended for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with curative-intent radiotherapy. High-quality evidence to inform optimal surveillance strategies is lacking. Machine learning demonstrates promise in accurate outcome prediction for a variety of health conditions. The purpose of this study was to utilise readily available patient, tumour, and treatment data to develop, validate and externally test machine learning models for predicting recurrence, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) at 2 years from treatment. A retrospective, multicentre study of patients receiving curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC was undertaken. A total of 657 patients from 5 hospitals were eligible for inclusion. Data pre-processing derived 34 features for predictive modelling. Combinations of 8 feature reduction methods and 10 machine learning classification algorithms were compared, producing risk-stratification models for predicting recurrence, RFS and OS. Models were compared with 10-fold cross validation and an external test set and benchmarked against TNM-stage and performance status. Youden Index was derived from validation set ROC curves to distinguish high and low risk groups and Kaplan-Meier analyses performed. Median follow-up time was 852 days. Parameters were well matched across training-validation and external test sets: Mean age was 73 and 71 respectively, and recurrence, RFS and OS rates at 2 years were 43% vs 34%, 54% vs 47% and 54% vs 47% respectively. The respective validation and test set AUCs were as follows: 1) RFS: 0·682 (0·575–0·788) and 0·681 (0·597–0·766), 2) Recurrence: 0·687 (0·582–0·793) and 0·722 (0·635–0·81), and 3) OS: 0·759 (0·663–0·855) and 0·717 (0·634–0·8). Our models were superior to TNM stage and performance status in predicting recurrence and OS. This robust and ready to use machine learning method, validated and externally tested, sets the stage for future clinical trials entailing quantitative personalised risk-stratification and surveillance following curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC. A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section.

Large lung nodules (≥15 mm) have the highest risk of malignancy, and may exhibit important differences in phenotypic or clinical characteristics to their smaller counterparts. Existing risk models do not stratify large nodules well. We aimed to develop and validate an integrated segmentation and classification pipeline, incorporating deep-learning and traditional radiomics, to classify large lung nodules according to cancer risk. 502 patients from five U.K. centres were recruited to the large-nodule arm of the retrospective LIBRA study between July 2020 and April 2022. 838 CT scans were used for model development, split into training and test sets (70% and 30% respectively). An nnUNet model was trained to automate lung nodule segmentation. A radiomics signature was developed to classify nodules according to malignancy risk. Performance of the radiomics model, termed the large-nodule radiomics predictive vector (LN-RPV), was compared to three radiologists and the Brock and Herder scores. 499 patients had technically evaluable scans (mean age 69 ± 11, 257 men, 242 women). In the test set of 252 scans, the nnUNet achieved a DICE score of 0.86, and the LN-RPV achieved an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) for malignancy classification. Performance was higher than the median radiologist (AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.70–0.81], DeLong p = 0.03). LN-RPV was robust to auto-segmentation (ICC 0.94). For baseline solid nodules in the test set (117 patients), LN-RPV had an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) compared to 0.67 (95% CI 0.55–0.76, DeLong p = 0.002) for the Brock score and 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.90, DeLong p = 0.4) for the Herder score. In the international external test set (n = 151), LN-RPV maintained an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.63–0.85). 18 out of 22 (82%) malignant nodules in the Herder 10–70% category in the test set were identified as high risk by the decision-support tool, and may have been referred for earlier intervention. The model accurately segments and classifies large lung nodules, and may improve upon existing clinical models. This project represents independent research funded by: 1) Royal Marsden Partners Cancer Alliance, 2) the 10.13039/100016916 Royal Marsden Cancer Charity , 3) the 10.13039/501100000272 National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research, London, 4) the 10.13039/501100000272 National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at 10.13039/501100000761 Imperial College London , 5) 10.13039/501100000289 Cancer Research UK (C309/A31316).