Rationale Delirium incidence in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is high and associated with poor outcome. Identification of high-risk patients may facilitate its prevention. Purpose To develop and validate a model based on data available at ICU admission to predict delirium development during a patient’s complete ICU stay and to determine the predictive value of this model in relation to the time of delirium development. Methods Prospective cohort study in 13 ICUs from seven countries. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop the early prediction (E-PRE-DELIRIC) model on data of the first two-thirds and validated on data of the last one-third of the patients from every participating ICU. Results In total, 2914 patients were included. Delirium incidence was 23.6 %. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model consists of nine predictors assessed at ICU admission: age, history of cognitive impairment, history of alcohol abuse, blood urea nitrogen, admission category, urgent admission, mean arterial blood pressure, use of corticosteroids, and respiratory failure. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.77] in the development dataset and 0.75 (95 % CI 0.71–0.79) in the validation dataset. The model was well calibrated. AUROC increased from 0.70 (95 % CI 0.67–0.74), for delirium that developed 6 days. Conclusion Patients’ delirium risk for the complete ICU length of stay can be predicted at admission using the E-PRE-DELIRIC model, allowing early preventive interventions aimed to reduce incidence and severity of ICU delirium.

Introduction: Effective resuscitation with human albumin solutions is achieved with less fluid than with crystalloid solutions. However, the role of albumin in today’s critical care unit is also linked to its multiple pharmacological effects. Areas covered: The potential clinical benefits of albumin in select populations of critically ill patients like sepsis seem related to immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects, antibiotic transportation and endothelial stabilization. Albumin transports many drugs used in critically ill patients. Such binding to albumin is frequently lessened in critically ill patients with hypoalbuminemia. These changes could result in sub-optimal treatment. Albumin has immunomodulatory capacity by binding several bacterial products. Albumin also influences vascular integrity, contributing to the maintenance of the normal capillary permeability. Moreover, the albumin molecule encompasses several antioxidant properties, thereby significantly reducing re-oxygenation injury, which is especially important in sepsis. In fact, most studies of albumin administration are a combination of a degree of resuscitation with a degree of maintenance or supplementation of albumin. Expert commentary: The potential clinical benefits of the use of albumin in selected critically ill patients such as sepsis seem related to its immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects, antioxidant properties, antibiotic transportation and endothelial stabilization. Additional studies are warranted to further elucidate the underlying physiologic and molecular rationale.

Since the American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) and the Society of Critical care Medicine (SCCM) published the first consensus definition of syndromes related to sepsis in 1992, the knowledge of epidemiology of sepsis has clearly improved, although no prospective studies have been performed to analyse the incidence of sepsis in general population. There are differences in epidemiologic trends in sepsis between western countries and low-income and middle-income countries. In the United States (US), most of epidemiologic studies have been based on large, administrative databases, reporting an increase in the incidence of severe sepsis over years. In general, studies describing epidemiology of sepsis outside the US use clinical definitions and intensive care unit (ICU) observational cohort designs instead of administrative databases and definitions. Incidence of sepsis has increased over years, probably due to progressive aging of population, the existence of more comorbidities and maybe the liberal use of sepsis codification, by including patients with less severity. Notwithstanding, mortality due to sepsis is clearly decreasing over years, probably to improvement in ICU care, although absolute mortality is growing on account of the raise in incidence. Risk factors for sepsis are the two ends of life, male sex, US black race, presence of comorbidities and certain genetic variants. Respiratory tract infections are the most common source of sepsis, and, nowadays, Gram-positive infections are more frequent that Gram-negative sepsis in most prospective studies.

Dosing in obese critically ill patients is challenging due to pathophysiological changes derived from obesity and/or critical illness, and it remains fully unexplored. This study estimated the micafungin probability of reaching adequate 24-h area under the curve (AUC0–24h)/minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values against Candida spp. for an obese/nonobese, critically ill/noncritically ill, large population. Blood samples for pharmacokinetic analyses were collected from 10 critically ill nonobese patients, 10 noncritically ill obese patients, and 11 critically ill morbidly obese patients under empirical/directed micafungin treatment. Patients received once daily 100–150 mg micafungin at the discretion of the treating physician following the prescribing information and hospital guidelines. Total micafungin concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Monte-Carlo simulations were performed and the probability of target attainment (PTA) was calculated using the AUC0–24/MIC cut-offs 285 (C. parapsilosis), 3000 (all Candida spp.), and 5000 (nonparapsilosis Candida spp.). Intravenous once-daily 100-mg, 150-mg, and 200-mg doses were simulated at different body weights (45, 80, 115, 150, and 185 kg) and age (30, 50, 70 and 90 years old). PTAs ≥ 90% were considered optimal. Fractional target attainment (FTA) was calculated using published MIC distributions. A dosing regimen was considered successful if the FTA was ≥ 90%. Overall, 100 mg of micafungin was once-daily administered for nonobese and obese patients with body mass index (BMI) ≤ 45 kg/m2 and 150 mg for morbidly obese patients with BMI > 45 kg/m2 (except two noncritically ill obese patients with BMI ~ 35 kg/m2 receiving 150 mg, and one critically ill patient with BMI > 45 kg/m2 receiving 100 mg). Micafungin concentrations in plasma were best described using a two-compartment model. Weight and age (but not severity score) were significant covariates and improved the model. FTAs > 90% were obtained against C. albicans with the 200 mg/24 h dose for all body weights (up to 185 kg), and with the 150 mg/24 h for body weights < 115 kg, and against C. glabrata with the 200 mg/24 h dose for body weights < 115 kg. The lack of adequacy for the 100 mg/24 h dose suggested the need to increase the dose to 150 mg/24 h for C. albicans infections. Further pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies should address optimization of micafungin dosing for nonalbicans Candida infections.