Highly imbalanced data typically make accurate predictions difficult. Unfortunately, software defect datasets tend to have fewer defective modules than non-defective modules. Synthetic oversampling approaches address this concern by creating new minority defective modules to balance the class distribution before a model is trained. Notwithstanding the successes achieved by these approaches, they mostly result in over-generalization (high rates of false alarms) and generate near-duplicated data instances (less diverse data). In this study, we introduce MAHAKIL, a novel and efficient synthetic oversampling approach for software defect datasets that is based on the chromosomal theory of inheritance. Exploiting this theory, MAHAKIL interprets two distinct sub-classes as parents and generates a new instance that inherits different traits from each parent and contributes to the diversity within the data distribution. We extensively compare MAHAKIL with SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, ADASYN, Random Oversampling and the No sampling approach using 20 releases of defect datasets from the PROMISE repository and five prediction models. Our experiments indicate that MAHAKIL improves the prediction performance for all the models and achieves better and more significant pf values than the other oversampling approaches, based on Brunner's statistical significance test and Cliff's effect sizes. Therefore, MAHAKIL is strongly recommended as an efficient alternative for defect prediction models built on highly imbalanced datasets.

Context: In addressing how best to estimate how much effort is required to develop software, a recent study found that using exemplary and recently completed projects [forming Bellwether moving windows (BMW)] in software effort prediction (SEP) models leads to relatively improved accuracy. More studies need to be conducted to determine whether the BMW yields improved accuracy in general, since different sizing and aging parameters of the BMW are known to affect accuracy. Objective: To investigate the existence of exemplary projects (Bellwethers) with defined window size and age parameters, and whether their use in SEP improves prediction accuracy. Method: We empirically investigate the moving window assumption based on the theory that the prediction outcome of a future event depends on the outcomes of prior events. Sampling of Bellwethers was undertaken using three introduced Bellwether methods (SSPM, SysSam, and RandSam). The ergodic Markov chain was used to determine the stationarity of the Bellwethers. Results: Empirical results show that 1) Bellwethers exist in SEP and 2) the BMW has an approximate size of 50 to 80 exemplary projects that should not be more than 2 years old relative to the new projects to be estimated. Conclusion: The study's results add further weight to the recommended use of Bellwethers for improved prediction accuracy in SEP.