The accurate identification of the route of transmission taken by an infectious agent through a host population is critical to understanding its epidemiology and informing measures for its control. However, reconstruction of transmission routes during an epidemic is often an underdetermined problem: data about the location and timings of infections can be incomplete, inaccurate, and compatible with a large number of different transmission scenarios. For fast-evolving pathogens like RNA viruses, inference can be strengthened by using genetic data, nowadays easily and affordably generated. However, significant statistical challenges remain to be overcome in the full integration of these different data types if transmission trees are to be reliably estimated. We present here a framework leading to a bayesian inference scheme that combines genetic and epidemiological data, able to reconstruct most likely transmission patterns and infection dates. After testing our approach with simulated data, we apply the method to two UK epidemics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV): the 2007 outbreak, and a subset of the large 2001 epidemic. In the first case, we are able to confirm the role of a specific premise as the link between the two phases of the epidemics, while transmissions more densely clustered in space and time remain harder to resolve. When we consider data collected from the 2001 epidemic during a time of national emergency, our inference scheme robustly infers transmission chains, and uncovers the presence of undetected premises, thus providing a useful tool for epidemiological studies in real time. The generation of genetic data is becoming routine in epidemiological investigations, but the development of analytical tools maximizing the value of these data remains a priority. Our method, while applied here in the context of FMDV, is general and with slight modification can be used in any situation where both spatiotemporal and genetic data are available. In order to most effectively control the spread of an infectious disease, we need to better understand how pathogens spread within a host population, yet this is something we know remarkably little about. Cases close together in their locations and timing are often thought to be linked, but timings and locations alone are usually consistent with many different scenarios of who-infected-who. The genome of many pathogens evolves so quickly relative to the rate that they are transmitted, that even over single short epidemics we can identify which hosts contain pathogens that are most closely related to each other. This information is valuable because when combined with the spatial and timing data it should help us infer more reliably who-transmitted-to-who over the course of a disease outbreak. However, doing this so that these three different lines of evidence are appropriately weighted and interpreted remains a major statistical challenge. In our paper we present a new statistical method for combining these different types of data and estimating trees that show how infection was most likely transmitted between individuals in a host population. Because sequencing genetic material has become so affordable, we think methods like ours will become very important for future epidemiology.

The diverse sequences of viral populations within individual hosts are the starting material for selection and subsequent evolution of RNA viruses such as foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Using next-generation sequencing (NGS) performed on a Genome Analyzer platform (Illumina), this study compared the viral populations within two bovine epithelial samples (foot lesions) from a single animal with the inoculum used to initiate experimental infection. Genomic sequences were determined in duplicate sequencing runs, and the consensus sequence of the inoculum determined by NGS was identical to that previously determined using the Sanger method. However, NGS revealed the fine polymorphic substructure of the viral population, from nucleotide variants present at just below 50% frequency to those present at fractions of 1%. Some of the higher-frequency polymorphisms identified encoded changes within codons associated with heparan sulfate binding and were present in both foot lesions, revealing intermediate stages in the evolution of a tissue culture-adapted virus replicating within a mammalian host. We identified 2,622, 1,434, and 1,703 polymorphisms in the inoculum and in the two foot lesions, respectively: most of the substitutions occurred in only a small fraction of the population and represented the progeny from recent cellular replication prior to onset of any selective pressures. We estimated the upper limit for the genome-wide mutation rate of the virus within a cell to be 7.8 × 10 ⁻⁴ per nucleotide. The greater depth of detection achieved by NGS demonstrates that this method is a powerful and valuable tool for the dissection of FMDV populations within hosts.

We present a method for computing stationary distributions for activated processes in equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems using forward flux sampling. In this method, the stationary distributions are obtained directly from the rate constant calculations for the forward and backward reactions; there is no need to perform separate calculations for the stationary distribution and the rate constant. We apply the method to the nonequilibrium rare event problem proposed by Maier and Stein, to nucleation in a 2-dimensional Ising system, and to the flipping of a genetic switch.