Accelerated sea level rise and the potential for an increase in frequency of the most intense hurricanes due to climate change threaten the vitality and habitability of barrier islands by lowering their relative elevation and altering frequency of overwash. High-density development may further increase island vulnerability by restricting delivery of overwash to the subaerial island. We analyzed pre-Hurricane Sandy and post-Hurricane Sandy (2012) lidar surveys of the New Jersey coast to assess human influence on barrier overwash, comparing natural environments to two developed environments (commercial and residential) using shore-perpendicular topographic profiles. The volumes of overwash delivered to residential and commercial environments are reduced by 40% and 90%, respectively, of that delivered to natural environments. We use this analysis and an exploratory barrier island evolution model to assess long-term impacts of anthropogenic structures. Simulations suggest that natural barrier islands may persist under a range of likely future sea level rise scenarios (7–13 mm/yr), whereas developed barrier islands will have a long-term tendency toward drowning.

Coupling between barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments (salt marsh, tidal flats) leads to complex ecogeomorphic feedbacks that are proposed to control the response of barrier island systems to relative sea-level rise. This study tests the applicability of these still-theoretical concepts through investigation of the Virginia barrier islands (eastern United States), which are located in an area of accelerated sea-level rise. Using historical maps and photographs from A.D. 1851 to 2010, we determine that rapid landward island migration (1–6 m yr–1) is leading to backbarrier area reduction and large-scale salt marsh loss (63 km2 or 19%) at a rate of 0.45 km2 yr–1. Landward barrier island migration far outpaces upland marsh migration and is responsible for 51% of marsh loss; the remainder is due to backbarrier processes (e.g., edge erosion). In direct contrast to proposed ecogeomorphic feedbacks linking barrier island and backbarrier environments, shoreline retreat rates were not related to changes in backbarrier marsh, open-water areas, or tidal prism. Rather, these results indicate that, for barrier island systems already undergoing migration, the primary barrier-backbarrier coupling is the loss of marsh and tidal-flat area because of barrier island migration.