Public transit has been continuously developing because of advocacy for low-carbon living, and concerns about its safety have gained prominence. The various factors that constitute the bus operating environment are extremely complex. Although existing research on operational security is crucial, previous studies often fail to fully represent this complexity. In this study, a novel method was proposed to identify the risk factors for bus operations based on a Bayesian network. Our research was based on monitoring data from the public transit system. First, the Tabu Search algorithm was applied to identify the optimal structure of the Bayesian network with the Bayesian Information Criterion. Second, the network parameters were calculated using bus monitoring data based on Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Finally, reasoning was conducted through prediction and diagnosis in the network. Additionally, the most probable explanation of bus operation spatial risk was identified. The results indicated that factors such as speed, traffic volume, isolation measures, intersections, bus stops, and lanes had a significant effect on the spatial risk of bus operation. In conclusion, the study findings can help avert dangers and support decision-making for the operation and management of public transit in metropolitan areas to enhance daily public transit safety.
29 August 2021 in Journal of Advanced Transportation
The entrance and exit area of parking facilities has the characteristics of high concentration of urban traffic and prominent traffic intertwining phenomenon, which easily induces rapid congestion of mixed heterogeneous traffic at specific times and local locations and quickly spreads to the entire road section or even a larger area. In order to better understand the congestion distribution characteristics and propagation effects of access section of the parking entrance and exit from the mid and microperspective, a 5 m lane width pixel grid is used to divide the frontage road research. It also proposes a spatially robust autoregressive model and complex network tools suitable for analysis of local traffic flow to analyze it. The results show that as spatial scale increases, the congestion propagation decreases sharply and spatial adjacency within the fourth order can account for more than 90% of the propagation; the frontage road to the entrance and exit is the place where the congestion first happens, and the congestion gradually attenuates as it propagates to the inner lane and the upstream of the road segments; the lateral congestion propagation attenuates faster, so the area affected by congestion is mainly distributed in the outermost lane. This paper can provide theoretical guidance for alleviating traffic congestion in the entrance and exit areas of parking facilities and has theoretical and empirical significance.