Remotely sensed hydrologic variables, in conjunction with streamflow data, have been increasingly used to conduct multivariable calibration of hydrologic model parameters. Here, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using different combinations of streamflow and remotely sensed hydrologic variables, including Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) Evapotranspiration (ET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET, and Soil MERGE (SMERGE) soil moisture. The results show that adding remotely sensed ET and soil moisture to the traditionally used streamflow for model calibration can impact the number and values of parameters sensitive to hydrologic modeling, but it does not necessarily improve the model performance. However, using remotely sensed ET or soil moisture data alone led to deterioration in model performance as compared with using streamflow only. In addition, we observed large discrepancies between ALEXI or MODIS ET data and the choice between these two datasets for model calibration can have significant implications for the performance of the SWAT model. The use of different combinations of streamflow, ET, and soil moisture data also resulted in noticeable differences in simulated hydrologic processes, such as runoff, percolation, and groundwater discharge. Finally, we compared the performance of SWAT and the SWAT-Carbon (SWAT-C) model under different multivariate calibration setups, and these two models exhibited pronounced differences in their performance in the validation period. Based on these results, we recommend (1) the assessment of various remotely sensed data (when multiple options available) for model calibration before choosing them for complementing the traditionally used streamflow data and (2) that different model structures be considered in the model calibration process to support robust hydrologic modeling.

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Groundwater use for irrigation has a major influence on agricultural productivity and local water resources. This study evaluated the groundwater irrigation schemes, SWAT auto-irrigation scheduling based on plant water stress (Auto-Irr), and prescribed irrigation based on well pumping rates in MODFLOW (Well-Irr), in the U.S. Northern High Plains (NHP) aquifer using coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model simulations for the period 1982–2008. Auto-Irr generally performed better than Well-Irr in simulating groundwater irrigation volume (reducing the mean bias from 86 to −30%) and groundwater level (reducing the normalized root-mean-square-error from 13.55 to 12.47%) across the NHP, as well as streamflow interannual variations at two stations (increasing NSE from 0.51, 0.51 to 0.55, 0.53). We also examined the effects of groundwater irrigation on the water cycle. Based on simulation results from Auto-Irr, historical irrigation led to significant recharge along the Elkhorn and Platte rivers. On average over the entire NHP, irrigation increased surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge by 21.3%, 4.0%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Irrigation improved crop water productivity by nearly 27.2% for corn and 23.8% for soybean. Therefore, designing sustainable irrigation practices to enhance crop productivity must consider both regional landscape characteristics and downstream hydrological consequences.

The cultivation of bioenergy feedstocks, such as miscanthus, or energycane, on marginal lands helps alleviate the competition between food and fuel. However, such land use conversion could lead to complex interactions among climate, vegetation, and water resources, resulting in positive or negative environmental impacts. In this study, we used the Climate‐Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model to simulate the feedback from growing bioenergy crops on marginal lands to regional climate for the present and future scenarios and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the climate and land use change impacts on the hydrological cycle and water quality in the U.S. Northern High Plains Aquifer region. CWRF projects a wetter and cooler regional climate by considering climate‐crop feedback as compared to a control scenario (no land use change and climate feedback), highlighting the importance of land‐atmosphere interactions in regional climate assessment. Our watershed‐scale assessment shows that although growing miscanthus increases local evapotranspiration and decreases surface runoff, soil moisture, and percolation on marginal lands, watershed‐scale streamflow substantially increases during the growing season in both present and future conditions due to increases in regional precipitation. The differences in the extent of marginal land use change between the Platte (4%) and Republican (20%) river basins result in different responses in streamflow and nitrogen loading. Overall, our study highlights the importance of assessing the regional climate‐crop feedback and environmental quality impacts of using marginal lands for future sustainable bioenergy production.

Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change pose significant challenges to U.S agriculture. Understanding the coupled impacts of these changes in the future on key hydrological processes is crucial for ensuring food and water security, conserving ecosystems, and promoting sustainable agriculture in a changing world. The agriculturally intensive Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB, 491 702 km²) of the Midwestern U.S. plays a critical role in U.S. agriculture, the regional economy, national and global food security, and environmental health. This study investigates the potential combined impacts of future climate and LULC on water availability and their implications for agricultural production in the UMRB. We found that the most notable reductions in soil moisture and streamflow and an increase in vapor pressure deficit are projected to occur during the growing season, which suggests that Midwest agriculture could face challenges in water availability during the critical phases of crop growth and development. Although the longer growing degree days could extend the length of the growing season, they could also lead to higher water demands for crops. The combined effects of climate and LULC change outweigh each single driver. The combined change can result in significant increases in water loss through ET (15.2% and 21.5% in 2071–2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP245 (climate mitigation scenario with medium emissions) and SSP585 (a business-as-usual scenario that has high greenhouse gas emissions), respectively) and a decline in water yield (4.75% and 26.6% in 2071–2100 under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively). Policymakers and farmers may need to adapt to those future changes by prioritizing sustainable water management practices and adopting water-efficient technologies.