Background: During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, stay-at-home and quarantine measures were widely adopted and enforced. Understanding the effectiveness of stay-at-home and quarantine measures can inform decision-making and control planning during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and for future disease outbreaks. Methods: In this study, we use mathematical models to evaluate the impact of stay-at-home and quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread in four cities that experienced large-scale outbreaks in the spring of 2020: Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. We develop a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR)-type model with components of self-isolation and quarantine and couple this disease transmission model with a data assimilation method. By calibrating the model to case data, we estimate key epidemiological parameters before lockdown in each city. We further examine the impact of stay-at-home and quarantine rates on COVID-19 spread after lockdown using counterfactual model simulations. Results: Results indicate that self-isolation of susceptible population is necessary to contain the outbreak. At a given rate, self-isolation of susceptible population induced by stay-at-home orders is more effective than quarantine of SARS-CoV-2 contacts in reducing effective reproductive numbers $$R_e$$R e . Variation in self-isolation and quarantine rates can also considerably affect the duration of outbreaks, attack rates and peak timing. We generate counterfactual simulations to estimate effectiveness of stay-at-home and quarantine measures. Without these two measures, the cumulative confirmed cases could be much higher than reported numbers within 40 days after lockdown in Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. Conclusions: Our findings underscore the essential role of stay-at-home orders and quarantine of SARS-CoV-2 contacts during the early phase of the pandemic.

Influence maximization problem has received significant attention in recent years due to its application in various domains, such as product recommendation, public opinion dissemination, and disease propagation. This paper proposes a theoretical analysis framework for collective influence in hypergraphs, focusing on identifying a set of seeds that maximize influence in threshold models. First, we extend the message passing method from pairwise networks to hypergraphs to accurately describe the activation process in threshold models. Then, we introduce the concept of hypergraph collective influence (HCI) to measure the influence of nodes. Subsequently, we design an algorithm, HCI-TM, to select the influence maximization set, taking into account both node and hyperedge activation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that HCI-TM outperforms several competing algorithms in synthetic and real-world hypergraphs. Furthermore, we find that HCI can be used as a tool to predict the occurrence of cascading phenomena. Notably, we find that the HCI-TM algorithm works better for larger average hyperdegrees in Erdös–Rényi hypergraphs and smaller power-law exponents in scale-free hypergraphs.

We study the strategy to optimally maximize the dynamic range of excitable networks by removing the minimal number of links. A network of excitable elements can distinguish a broad range of stimulus intensities and has its dynamic range maximized at criticality. In this study, we formulate the activation propagation in excitable networks as a message passing process in which a critical state is reached when the largest eigenvalue of the weighted non-backtracking matrix is close to one. By considering the impact of single link removal on the largest eigenvalue, we develop an efficient algorithm that aims to identify the optimal set of links whose removal will drive the system to the critical state. Comparisons with other competing heuristics on both synthetic and real-world networks indicate that the proposed method can maximize the dynamic range by removing the smallest number of links, and at the same time maintaining the largest size of the giant connected component.

In this paper, we study targeted immunization in a multilayer Boolean network model for genetic regulatory networks. Given a specific set of nodes immune to perturbations, we find that the stability of a multilayer Boolean network is determined by the largest eigenvalue of the weighted non-backtracking matrix of corresponding aggregated network. Aimed to minimize this largest eigenvalue, we developed the metric of multilayer collective influence (MCI) to quantify the impact of immunizing individual nodes on the stability of the system. Compared with other competing heuristics, immunizing nodes with high MCI scores can stabilize an unstable multilayer network with higher efficiency on both synthetic and real-world networks. Moreover, despite that coupling nodes can exert direct influence across multiple layers, they are found to exhibit less importance as measured by the MCI score. Our work reveals the mechanism of maintaining the stability of multilayer Boolean networks and provides an efficient targeted immunization strategy, which can be potentially applied to the location of pathogenesis of diseases and the development of targeted therapy.

Percolation is one of the most widely studied models in which a unique giant cluster emerges after the phase transition. Recently, a new phenomenon, where multiple giant clusters are observed in the so called Bohman-Frieze-Wormald (BFW) model, has attracted much attention, and how multiple giant clusters could emerge in generic percolation processes on random networks will be discussed in this paper. By introducing the merging probability and inspecting the distinct mechanisms which contribute to the growth of largest clusters, a sufficient condition to generate multiple stable giant clusters is given. Based on the above results, the BFW model and a multi-Erdös-Rényi (ER) model given by us are analyzed, and the mechanism of multiple giant clusters of these two models is revealed. Furthermore, large fluctuations are observed in the size of multiple giant clusters in many models, but the sum size of all giant clusters exhibits self-averaging as that in the size of unique giant cluster in ordinary percolation. Besides, the growth modes of different giant clusters are discussed, and we find that the large fluctuations observed are mainly due to the stochastic behavior of the evolution in the critical window. For all the discussion above, numerical simulations on the BFW model and the multi-ER model are done, which strongly support our analysis. The investigation of merging probability and the growth mechanisms of largest clusters provides insight for the essence of multiple giant clusters in the percolation processes and can be instructive for modeling or analyzing real-world networks consisting of many large clusters.