Natural gas scarcity poses a significant risk to the global economy. The risk of production loss due to natural gas scarcity can be transferred to downstream economies through globalized supply chains. Therefore, it is important to quantify and analyze how natural gas scarcity in some regions affects the Belt and Road (B&R) economies. The embodied natural gas scarcity risks (EGSRs) of B&R economies are assessed and the EGSR transmission network is constructed. The built network shows a small-world nature. This illustrates that any interruption in key countries will quickly spread to neighboring countries, potentially affecting the global economy. The top countries, including Turkey, China, Ukraine, and India are identified in EGSR exports, which also have relatively high values of closeness centrality. The findings illustrate that the shortage of natural gas supply in these countries may have a significant impact on downstream countries or sectors and the resulting economic losses spread rapidly. These countries are critical to the resilience of the B&R economies to natural gas scarcity. The top nations, including Turkmenistan, Macedonia, and Georgia are also identified in EGSR imports, highlighting their vulnerability to natural gas scarcity. Further, the community analysis of the network provides a fresh perspective for formulating fair and reasonable allocation policies of natural gas resources and minimizing the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity.

Loss of production due to local water scarcity, i.e., Local Water Scarcity Risk (LWSR), is transferred downstream through international supply chains to distant economies, causing potential economic losses to countries and sectors that do not directly experience actual water scarcity, which is defined as Virtual Water Scarcity Risk (VWSR). Much research has focused on assessing VWSR and characterizing the structure of VWSR transfer networks, without explaining the formation and dynamics of VWSR transfer network patterns. In this study, the global VWSR transfer networks for 2001–2016 are then constructed based on a multi-regional input-output model and complex network theory. The determinants influencing the formation of VWSR transfer networks are further explored using the time-exponential random graph model. The results demonstrate that: (1) The VWSR transfer networks exhibit a distinctly small-world and heterogeneous nature; (2) Asia and Europe are the main targets of VWSR transfers, and Asia is also the main source of risks; (3) China and the USA play a leading role on the import side of VWSR, and India is the largest exporter of VWSR; (4) The evolution of VWSR transfer networks is significantly influenced by transitivity and stability. Countries located on the same continent, sharing geographical borders and having a higher level of economic development, have a facilitating effect on the formation and evolution of VWSR transfer networks. Countries with a higher share of merchandise trade are more inclined to receive VWSR inflows, while the urbanization rate has a restraining effect on VWSR outflows. The study provides a network-based insight that explores the structural evolution of VWSR transfer networks and the determinants of their formation, informing policy makers in developing strategies to mitigate the cascading spread of VWSR.