This paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi‐layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that multi‐layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks. We repeated the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags used for concatenation so as to evaluate the effect of the memory on the forecasting results. We find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long‐term forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Purpose: – This study aims to apply a new forecasting approach to improve predictions in the hospitality industry. To do so, the authors developed a multivariate setting that allows the incorporation of the cross-correlations in the evolution of tourist arrivals from visitor markets to a specific destination in neural network models.Design/methodology/approach: – This multiple-input-multiple-output approach allows the generation of predictions for all visitor markets simultaneously. Official data of tourist arrivals to Catalonia (Spain) from 2001 to 2012 were used to generate forecasts for one, three and six months ahead with three different networks.Findings: – The study revealed that multivariate architectures that take into account the connections between different markets may improve the predictive performance of neural networks. Additionally, the authors developed a new forecasting accuracy measure and found that radial basis function networks outperform the rest of the models.Research limitations/implications: – This research contributes to the hospitality literature by developing an innovative framework to improve the forecasting performance of artificial intelligence techniques and by providing a new forecasting accuracy measure.Practical implications: – The proposed forecasting approach may prove very useful for planning purposes, helping managers to anticipate the evolution of variables related to the daily activity of the industry.Originality/value: – A multivariate neural network framework has been developed to improve forecasting accuracy, providing professionals with an innovative and practical forecasting approach.

This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the forecasting performance of neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to predict tourist demand: multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and the Elman neural networks. The structure of the networks is based on a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) approach. We use official statistical data of inbound international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain) and compare the forecasting accuracy of four processing methods for the input vector of the networks: levels, growth rates, seasonally adjusted levels and seasonally adjusted growth rates. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different inputs for each visitor market and for different forecasting horizons, we obtain significantly better forecasts with levels than with growth rates. We also find that seasonally adjusted series significantly improve the forecasting performance of the networks, which hints at the significance of deseasonalizing the time series when using neural networks with forecasting purposes. These results reveal that, when using seasonal data, neural networks performance can be significantly improved by working directly with seasonally adjusted levels.

The main objective of this study is twofold. First, we propose an empirical modelling approach based on genetic programming to forecast economic growth by means of survey data on expectations. We use evolutionary algorithms to estimate a symbolic regression that links survey-based expectations to a quantitative variable used as a yardstick, deriving mathematical functional forms that approximate the target variable. The set of empirically-generated proxies of economic growth are used as building blocks to forecast the evolution of GDP. Second, we use these estimates of GDP to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the accuracy of agents’ expectations about the evolution of the economic activity in four Scandinavian economies. While we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ to anticipate economic growth after the crisis, predictive accuracy worsens in relation to the period prior to the crisis. The most accurate GDP forecasts are obtained for Sweden.