This article investigates the macroeconomic determinants of household debt in developed economies using a sample comprising 26 OECD countries for the period of 2002q1–2020q4. By resorting to the unconditional quantile regression, we find relevant asymmetries in the response of household debt. According to our results, economic growth leads to lower household debt, but the beneficial effect decreases as the level of household debt increases. Inflation lowers household borrowing only if the level of debt is high. Higher house prices lead to higher household debt, with the impact becoming stronger as the level of debt is higher. Investments go hand in hand with household debt, and higher investments lead to higher levels of borrowing, even when household debt is already high. Mortgage credit interest rates are positively linked with household debt, starting with higher debt levels. A rising unemployment rate leads to lower household debt, but the link becomes weaker as the level of debt increases. Higher public expenditures are generally associated with lower household debt. In addition, we find that household debt exhibits very powerful autoregressive behavior, being difficult to reduce rapidly in the case of need.

This paper examines how real house prices and residential building permits change after tighter mortgage-borrowing rules in 26 European Union countries over 2010Q1–2024Q4. Credit, housing transactions and construction are treated as parts of a system with feedback and different adjustment delays. Local projections follow prices and permits for up to twelve quarters after changes in loan-to-value or debt-service-to-income limits. The full panel indicates a negative medium-term price pattern. This finding is supported by some data and inference checks but not consistently by weighting or alternative definitions of policy events. Building permits show reductions at some horizons, without a persistent response across specifications. Their uncertainty intervals remain too wide to exclude economically meaningful changes at most horizons. The evidence therefore provides partial support for price moderation and more limited support for a sustained reduction in authorised development. Examining both outcomes shows why the assessment of mortgage regulation should extend beyond prices to the progress of residential projects. The policy discussion draws on the literature to consider financial safeguards, targeted housing assistance and measures that expand supply.