Background Tobacco companies claim that higher taxes will force smokers into buying illicit tobacco, but if they were truly concerned about increasing illicit sales with higher prices they would only increase retail prices in line with changes in taxation. In this paper, we explore UK pricing of both factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) to explore the extent to which price increases were due to government tax rises or industry strategies to increase profit per pack. Method Nielsen commercial data on UK tobacco sales data (2010–2015) were combined with official UK data on inflation and tax rates, to identify the source of real price increases. Results Between 2010 and 2012, when there were unexpected large tax increases, industry driven price changes were small (16% of the price rise in FM and 20% in RYO), and changes were similar between market segments. Between 2013 and 2015, when tax increases were smaller and expected, industry behaviour generally accounted for a larger share of price rises (33% FM, 48% RYO), but changes varied considerably by segment. Conclusion The industry has increased its prices beyond that required by tax changes, even when tax rises were larger and unexpected, although were notably smaller in such conditions. This suggests (1) that the industry is not actually concerned by the threat of illicit, especially since RYO had the highest levels of industry driven price increases despite higher levels of illicit, and (2) there remains scope for further tax increases, which should be relatively large and unexpected.

Introduction Pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) in patients with pancreatic malignancy is well documented in the literature and is known to negatively impact on overall survival and quality of life. A lack of consensus opinion remains on the optimal diagnostic test that can be adapted for use in a clinical setting for this cohort of patients. This study aims to better understand the prevalence of PEI and the most suitable diagnostic techniques in patients with advanced pancreatic malignancy. Methods and analysis This prospective observational study will be carried out in patients with pancreatic malignancy (including adenocarcinoma and neuroendocrine neoplasms). Consecutive patients with inoperable pancreatic malignancy referred for consideration of first-line chemotherapy will be considered for eligibility. The study comprises three cohorts: demographic cohort (primary objective to prospectively investigate the prevalence of PEI in patients with inoperable pancreatic malignancy); sample size 50, diagnostic cohort (primary objective to design and evaluate an optimal diagnostic panel to detect PEI in patients with inoperable pancreatic malignancy); sample size 25 and follow-up cohort (primary objective to prospectively evaluate the proposed PEI diagnostic panel in a cohort of patients with inoperable pancreatic malignancy); sample size 50. The following is a summary of the protocol and methodology. Ethics and dissemination Full ethical approval has been granted by the North West Greater Manchester East Research and Ethics Committee, reference: 17/NW/0597. This manuscript reflects the latest protocol V.8 approved 21 April 2020. Findings will be disseminated by presentation at national/international conferences, publication in peer-review journals and distribution via patient advocate groups. Trial registration number 194255, NCT0361643.