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Archaeological and paleoecological evidence shows that by 10,000 BCE, all human societies employed varying degrees of ecologically transformative land use practices, including burning, hunting, species propagation, domestication, cultivation, and others that have left long-term legacies across the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, a lingering paradigm among natural scientists, conservationists, and policymakers is that human transformation of terrestrial nature is mostly recent and inherently destructive. Here, we use the most up-to-date, spatially explicit global reconstruction of historical human populations and land use to show that this paradigm is likely wrong. Even 12,000 y ago, nearly three quarters of Earth’s land was inhabited and therefore shaped by human societies, including more than 95% of temperate and 90% of tropical woodlands. Lands now characterized as “natural,” “intact,” and “wild” generally exhibit long histories of use, as do protected areas and Indigenous lands, and current global patterns of vertebrate species richness and key biodiversity areas are more strongly associated with past patterns of land use than with present ones in regional landscapes now characterized as natural. The current biodiversity crisis can seldom be explained by the loss of uninhabited wildlands, resulting instead from the appropriation, colonization, and intensifying use of the biodiverse cultural landscapes long shaped and sustained by prior societies. Recognizing this deep cultural connection with biodiversity will therefore be essential to resolve the crisis.
Erle C. Ellis; Nicolas Gauthier; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Rebecca Bliege Bird; Nicole Boivin; Sandra Díaz; Dorian Q. Fuller; Jacquelyn L. Gill; Jed O. Kaplan; Naomi Kingston; Harvey Locke; Crystal N. H. McMichael; Darren Ranco; Torben C. Rick; M. Rebecca Shaw; Lucas Stephens; Jens-Christian Svenning; James E. M. Watson. People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2021, 118, 1 .
AMA StyleErle C. Ellis, Nicolas Gauthier, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Rebecca Bliege Bird, Nicole Boivin, Sandra Díaz, Dorian Q. Fuller, Jacquelyn L. Gill, Jed O. Kaplan, Naomi Kingston, Harvey Locke, Crystal N. H. McMichael, Darren Ranco, Torben C. Rick, M. Rebecca Shaw, Lucas Stephens, Jens-Christian Svenning, James E. M. Watson. People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2021; 118 (17):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleErle C. Ellis; Nicolas Gauthier; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Rebecca Bliege Bird; Nicole Boivin; Sandra Díaz; Dorian Q. Fuller; Jacquelyn L. Gill; Jed O. Kaplan; Naomi Kingston; Harvey Locke; Crystal N. H. McMichael; Darren Ranco; Torben C. Rick; M. Rebecca Shaw; Lucas Stephens; Jens-Christian Svenning; James E. M. Watson. 2021. "People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 17: 1.
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.
George C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed O. Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamás Krisztin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 5425 -5464.
AMA StyleGeorge C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Xin Zhang. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (11):5425-5464.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed O. Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamás Krisztin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. 2020. "Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 11: 5425-5464.
Human populations and their use of land have reshaped landscapes for thousands of years, creating the anthropogenic biomes (anthromes) that now cover most of the terrestrial biosphere. Here we introduce the first global reconstruction and mapping of anthromes and their changes across the 12,000-year interval from 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE; the Anthromes 12K dataset. Anthromes were mapped using gridded global estimates of human population density and land use from the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE version 3.2) by a classification procedure similar to that used for prior anthrome maps. Anthromes 12K maps generally agreed with prior anthrome maps for the same time periods, though significant differences were observed, including a substantial reduction in Rangelands anthromes in 2000 CE but with increases before that time. Differences between maps resulted largely from improvements in HYDE’s representation of land use, including pastures and rangelands, compared with the HYDE 3.1 input data used in prior anthromes maps. The larger extent of early land use in Anthromes 12K also agrees more closely with empirical assessments than prior anthrome maps; the result of an evidence-based paradigm shift in characterizing the history of Earth’s transformation through land use, from a mostly recent large-scale conversion of uninhabited wildlands, to a long-term trend of increasingly intensive transformation and use of already inhabited and used landscapes. The spatial history of anthropogenic changes depicted in Anthromes 12K remain to be validated, especially for earlier time periods. Nevertheless, Anthromes 12K is a major advance over all prior anthrome datasets and provides a new platform for assessing the long-term environmental consequences of human transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.
Erle C. Ellis; Arthur H.W. Beusen; Kees Klein Goldewijk. Anthropogenic Biomes: 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE. Land 2020, 9, 129 .
AMA StyleErle C. Ellis, Arthur H.W. Beusen, Kees Klein Goldewijk. Anthropogenic Biomes: 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE. Land. 2020; 9 (5):129.
Chicago/Turabian StyleErle C. Ellis; Arthur H.W. Beusen; Kees Klein Goldewijk. 2020. "Anthropogenic Biomes: 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE." Land 9, no. 5: 129.
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.
George C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamas Kristzin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. 2020, 2020, 1 -65.
AMA StyleGeorge C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamas Kristzin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Xin Zhang. Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. . 2020; 2020 ():1-65.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamas Kristzin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. 2020. "Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6." 2020, no. : 1-65.
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.
Sandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 805 -824.
AMA StyleSandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (2):805-824.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. 2020. "Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 2: 805-824.
Since mankind began clearing land and domesticating favored plants and animals at the start of the Holocene, the terrestrial biosphere has been transformed into anthropogenic biomes or anthromes. A first attempt to reconstruct global changes in anthrome distribution from 10,000 BCE to 2015 CE (the Anthromes12K dataset) was derived by using human population density and land use from the History of the Global Environment (HYDE) database (version 3.2), in combination with alternate anthromes classification schemes. At the beginning of the Holocene almost 40% of the Earth's land surface was classified as completely wild, without human settlement or agriculture. The remaining 60% was classified as seminatural with only minor areas of agriculture and settlements, where 33% of the seminatural class was classified as inhabited treeless and barren lands and 26% as remote woodlands. The first significant areas of cropland and rangeland anthromes emerged around 1 CE (2%) slowly increasing to 5% in 1000 CE. Villages and dense settlements still occupied hardly any space that time (0.2%). The global extent of croplands and rangelands increased by agricultural expansion into wildlands and intensification of land use to 9.4% in 1700 CE and this process accelerated to the end of the 20th century to a share of almost 42%. Villages and dense settlements occupying 8% of the global land surface. Al this happened at the expense of seminatural lands who decreased in area by 35.5% and wildlands who lost 14.5% of their original area. This transformation took not place evenly distributed over the Earth and over time, but varied greatly across regions and biomes, depicting large differences in the onset of agriculture.
Kees Klein Goldewijk. Historical Change in Anthromes. Encyclopedia of the World's Biomes 2020, 12 -21.
AMA StyleKees Klein Goldewijk. Historical Change in Anthromes. Encyclopedia of the World's Biomes. 2020; ():12-21.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Klein Goldewijk. 2020. "Historical Change in Anthromes." Encyclopedia of the World's Biomes , no. : 12-21.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
Pierre Friedlingstein; Matthew W. Jones; Michael O'Sullivan; Robbie M. Andrew; Judith Hauck; Glen P. Peters; Wouter Peters; Julia Pongratz; Stephen Sitch; Corinne Le Quéré; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Josep G. Canadell; Philippe Ciais; Robert B. Jackson; Peter Anthoni; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Vladislav Bastrikov; Meike Becker; Laurent Bopp; Erik Buitenhuis; Naveen Chandra; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Kim I. Currie; Richard A. Feely; Marion Gehlen; Dennis Gilfillan; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Nicolas Gruber; Sören Gutekunst; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Emilie Joetzjer; Jed O. Kaplan; Etsushi Kato; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Peter Landschützer; Siv K. Lauvset; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Gregg Marland; Patrick C. McGuire; Joe R. Melton; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Abdirahman M. Omar; Tsuneo Ono; Anna Peregon; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Christian Rödenbeck; Roland Séférian; Jörg Schwinger; Naomi Smith; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Guido R. van der Werf; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth System Science Data 2019, 11, 1783 -1838.
AMA StylePierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth System Science Data. 2019; 11 (4):1783-1838.
Chicago/Turabian StylePierre Friedlingstein; Matthew W. Jones; Michael O'Sullivan; Robbie M. Andrew; Judith Hauck; Glen P. Peters; Wouter Peters; Julia Pongratz; Stephen Sitch; Corinne Le Quéré; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Josep G. Canadell; Philippe Ciais; Robert B. Jackson; Peter Anthoni; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Vladislav Bastrikov; Meike Becker; Laurent Bopp; Erik Buitenhuis; Naveen Chandra; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Kim I. Currie; Richard A. Feely; Marion Gehlen; Dennis Gilfillan; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Nicolas Gruber; Sören Gutekunst; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Emilie Joetzjer; Jed O. Kaplan; Etsushi Kato; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Peter Landschützer; Siv K. Lauvset; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Gregg Marland; Patrick C. McGuire; Joe R. Melton; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Abdirahman M. Omar; Tsuneo Ono; Anna Peregon; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Christian Rödenbeck; Roland Séférian; Jörg Schwinger; Naomi Smith; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Guido R. van der Werf; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle. 2019. "Global Carbon Budget 2019." Earth System Science Data 11, no. 4: 1783-1838.
Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists by 3000 years ago, considerably earlier than the dates in the land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by more than 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked for 2000 yr B.P. and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth’s transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.
Lucas Stephens; Dorian Fuller; Nicole Boivin; Torben Rick; Nicolas Gauthier; Andrea Kay; Ben Marwick; Chelsey Geralda Armstrong; C. Michael Barton; Tim Denham; Kristina Douglass; Jonathan Driver; Lisa Janz; Patrick Roberts; J. Daniel Rogers; Heather Thakar; Mark Altaweel; Amber L. Johnson; Maria Marta Sampietro Vattuone; Mark Aldenderfer; Sonia Archila; Gilberto Artioli; Martin T. Bale; Timothy Beach; Ferran Borrell; Todd Braje; Philip I. Buckland; Nayeli Guadalupe Jiménez Cano; José M. Capriles; Agustín Diez Castillo; Çiler Çilingiroğlu; Michelle Negus Cleary; James Conolly; Peter R. Coutros; R. Alan Covey; Mauro Cremaschi; Alison Crowther; Lindsay Der; Savino di Lernia; John F. Doershuk; William E. Doolittle; Kevin J. Edwards; Jon M. Erlandson; Damian Evans; Andrew Fairbairn; Patrick Faulkner; Gary Feinman; Ricardo Fernandes; Scott M. Fitzpatrick; Ralph Fyfe; Elena Garcea; Steve Goldstein; Reed Charles Goodman; Jade Dalpoim Guedes; Jason Herrmann; Peter Hiscock; Peter Hommel; K. Ann Horsburgh; Carrie Hritz; John W. Ives; Aripekka Junno; Jennifer G. Kahn; Brett Kaufman; Catherine Kearns; Tristram R. Kidder; François Lanoë; Dan Lawrence; Gyoung-Ah Lee; Maureece J. Levin; Henrik B. Lindskoug; José Antonio López-Sáez; Scott Macrae; Rob Marchant; John M. Marston; Sarah McClure; Mark D. McCoy; Alicia Ventresca Miller; Michael Morrison; Giedre Motuzaite Matuzeviciute; Johannes Müller; Ayushi Nayak; Sofwan Noerwidi; Tanya M. Peres; Christian E. Peterson; Lucas Proctor; Asa R. Randall; Steve Renette; Gwen Robbins Schug; Krysta Ryzewski; Rakesh Saini; Vivian Scheinsohn; Peter Schmidt; Pauline Sebillaud; Oula Seitsonen; Ian A. Simpson; Arkadiusz Sołtysiak; Robert J. Speakman; Robert N. Spengler; Martina L. Steffen; Michael J. Storozum; Keir M. Strickland; Jessica Thompson; T. L. Thurston; Sean Ulm; M. Cemre Ustunkaya; Martin H. Welker; Catherine West; Patrick Ryan Williams; David K. Wright; Nathan Wright; Muhammad Zahir; Andrea Zerboni; Ella Beaudoin; Santiago Munevar Garcia; Jeremy Powell; Alexa Thornton; Jed O. Kaplan; Marie-José Gaillard; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Erle Ellis. Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use. Science 2019, 365, 897 -902.
AMA StyleLucas Stephens, Dorian Fuller, Nicole Boivin, Torben Rick, Nicolas Gauthier, Andrea Kay, Ben Marwick, Chelsey Geralda Armstrong, C. Michael Barton, Tim Denham, Kristina Douglass, Jonathan Driver, Lisa Janz, Patrick Roberts, J. Daniel Rogers, Heather Thakar, Mark Altaweel, Amber L. Johnson, Maria Marta Sampietro Vattuone, Mark Aldenderfer, Sonia Archila, Gilberto Artioli, Martin T. Bale, Timothy Beach, Ferran Borrell, Todd Braje, Philip I. Buckland, Nayeli Guadalupe Jiménez Cano, José M. Capriles, Agustín Diez Castillo, Çiler Çilingiroğlu, Michelle Negus Cleary, James Conolly, Peter R. Coutros, R. Alan Covey, Mauro Cremaschi, Alison Crowther, Lindsay Der, Savino di Lernia, John F. Doershuk, William E. Doolittle, Kevin J. Edwards, Jon M. Erlandson, Damian Evans, Andrew Fairbairn, Patrick Faulkner, Gary Feinman, Ricardo Fernandes, Scott M. Fitzpatrick, Ralph Fyfe, Elena Garcea, Steve Goldstein, Reed Charles Goodman, Jade Dalpoim Guedes, Jason Herrmann, Peter Hiscock, Peter Hommel, K. Ann Horsburgh, Carrie Hritz, John W. Ives, Aripekka Junno, Jennifer G. Kahn, Brett Kaufman, Catherine Kearns, Tristram R. Kidder, François Lanoë, Dan Lawrence, Gyoung-Ah Lee, Maureece J. Levin, Henrik B. Lindskoug, José Antonio López-Sáez, Scott Macrae, Rob Marchant, John M. Marston, Sarah McClure, Mark D. McCoy, Alicia Ventresca Miller, Michael Morrison, Giedre Motuzaite Matuzeviciute, Johannes Müller, Ayushi Nayak, Sofwan Noerwidi, Tanya M. Peres, Christian E. Peterson, Lucas Proctor, Asa R. Randall, Steve Renette, Gwen Robbins Schug, Krysta Ryzewski, Rakesh Saini, Vivian Scheinsohn, Peter Schmidt, Pauline Sebillaud, Oula Seitsonen, Ian A. Simpson, Arkadiusz Sołtysiak, Robert J. Speakman, Robert N. Spengler, Martina L. Steffen, Michael J. Storozum, Keir M. Strickland, Jessica Thompson, T. L. Thurston, Sean Ulm, M. Cemre Ustunkaya, Martin H. Welker, Catherine West, Patrick Ryan Williams, David K. Wright, Nathan Wright, Muhammad Zahir, Andrea Zerboni, Ella Beaudoin, Santiago Munevar Garcia, Jeremy Powell, Alexa Thornton, Jed O. Kaplan, Marie-José Gaillard, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Erle Ellis. Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use. Science. 2019; 365 (6456):897-902.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLucas Stephens; Dorian Fuller; Nicole Boivin; Torben Rick; Nicolas Gauthier; Andrea Kay; Ben Marwick; Chelsey Geralda Armstrong; C. Michael Barton; Tim Denham; Kristina Douglass; Jonathan Driver; Lisa Janz; Patrick Roberts; J. Daniel Rogers; Heather Thakar; Mark Altaweel; Amber L. Johnson; Maria Marta Sampietro Vattuone; Mark Aldenderfer; Sonia Archila; Gilberto Artioli; Martin T. Bale; Timothy Beach; Ferran Borrell; Todd Braje; Philip I. Buckland; Nayeli Guadalupe Jiménez Cano; José M. Capriles; Agustín Diez Castillo; Çiler Çilingiroğlu; Michelle Negus Cleary; James Conolly; Peter R. Coutros; R. Alan Covey; Mauro Cremaschi; Alison Crowther; Lindsay Der; Savino di Lernia; John F. Doershuk; William E. Doolittle; Kevin J. Edwards; Jon M. Erlandson; Damian Evans; Andrew Fairbairn; Patrick Faulkner; Gary Feinman; Ricardo Fernandes; Scott M. Fitzpatrick; Ralph Fyfe; Elena Garcea; Steve Goldstein; Reed Charles Goodman; Jade Dalpoim Guedes; Jason Herrmann; Peter Hiscock; Peter Hommel; K. Ann Horsburgh; Carrie Hritz; John W. Ives; Aripekka Junno; Jennifer G. Kahn; Brett Kaufman; Catherine Kearns; Tristram R. Kidder; François Lanoë; Dan Lawrence; Gyoung-Ah Lee; Maureece J. Levin; Henrik B. Lindskoug; José Antonio López-Sáez; Scott Macrae; Rob Marchant; John M. Marston; Sarah McClure; Mark D. McCoy; Alicia Ventresca Miller; Michael Morrison; Giedre Motuzaite Matuzeviciute; Johannes Müller; Ayushi Nayak; Sofwan Noerwidi; Tanya M. Peres; Christian E. Peterson; Lucas Proctor; Asa R. Randall; Steve Renette; Gwen Robbins Schug; Krysta Ryzewski; Rakesh Saini; Vivian Scheinsohn; Peter Schmidt; Pauline Sebillaud; Oula Seitsonen; Ian A. Simpson; Arkadiusz Sołtysiak; Robert J. Speakman; Robert N. Spengler; Martina L. Steffen; Michael J. Storozum; Keir M. Strickland; Jessica Thompson; T. L. Thurston; Sean Ulm; M. Cemre Ustunkaya; Martin H. Welker; Catherine West; Patrick Ryan Williams; David K. Wright; Nathan Wright; Muhammad Zahir; Andrea Zerboni; Ella Beaudoin; Santiago Munevar Garcia; Jeremy Powell; Alexa Thornton; Jed O. Kaplan; Marie-José Gaillard; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Erle Ellis. 2019. "Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use." Science 365, no. 6456: 897-902.
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, we propose methods to evaluate the revised scenarios by using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and of climate. A further test involves carbon-cycle simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice-core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, we outline a protocol for using the improved LULC reconstructions in palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in order to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.
Sandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments. 2019, 1 -26.
AMA StyleSandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments. . 2019; ():1-26.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. 2019. "Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments." , no. : 1-26.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.
Corinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Judith Hauck; Julia Pongratz; Penelope A. Pickers; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Almut Arneth; Vivek K. Arora; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Scott C. Doney; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Forrest M. Hoffman; Mario Hoppema; Richard A. Houghton; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Truls Johannessen; Chris D. Jones; Etsushi Kato; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Sebastian Lienert; Zhu Liu; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Are Olsen; Tsueno Ono; Prabir Patra; Anna Peregon; Wouter Peters; Philippe Peylin; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Matthias Rocher; Christian Rödenbeck; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Tobias Steinhoff; Adrienne Sutton; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Rebecca Wright; Sönke Zaehle; Bo Zheng. Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data 2018, 10, 2141 -2194.
AMA StyleCorinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, Bo Zheng. Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data. 2018; 10 (4):2141-2194.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCorinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Judith Hauck; Julia Pongratz; Penelope A. Pickers; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Almut Arneth; Vivek K. Arora; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Scott C. Doney; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Forrest M. Hoffman; Mario Hoppema; Richard A. Houghton; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Truls Johannessen; Chris D. Jones; Etsushi Kato; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Sebastian Lienert; Zhu Liu; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Are Olsen; Tsueno Ono; Prabir Patra; Anna Peregon; Wouter Peters; Philippe Peylin; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Matthias Rocher; Christian Rödenbeck; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Tobias Steinhoff; Adrienne Sutton; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Rebecca Wright; Sönke Zaehle; Bo Zheng. 2018. "Global Carbon Budget 2018." Earth System Science Data 10, no. 4: 2141-2194.
Corinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Judith Hauck; Julia Pongratz; Penelope Pickers; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Almut Arneth; Vivek K. Arora; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Scott C. Doney; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Forrest M. Hoffman; Mario Hoppema; Richard A. Houghton; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Truls Johannesen; Chris D. Jones; Etsushi Kato; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Are Olsen; Tsueno Ono; Prabir Patra; Anna Peregon; Wouter Peters; Philippe Peylin; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Matthias Rocher; Christian Rödenbeck; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Tobias Steinhoff; Adrienne Sutton; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. Van Der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. Van Der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Rebecca Wright; Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2018. 2018, 2018, 1 -3.
AMA StyleCorinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannesen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. Van Der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2018. . 2018; 2018 ():1-3.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCorinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Judith Hauck; Julia Pongratz; Penelope Pickers; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Almut Arneth; Vivek K. Arora; Leticia Barbero; Ana Bastos; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Scott C. Doney; Thanos Gkritzalis; Daniel S. Goll; Ian Harris; Vanessa Haverd; Forrest M. Hoffman; Mario Hoppema; Richard A. Houghton; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Truls Johannesen; Chris D. Jones; Etsushi Kato; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Craig Neill; Are Olsen; Tsueno Ono; Prabir Patra; Anna Peregon; Wouter Peters; Philippe Peylin; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Laure Resplandy; Eddy Robertson; Matthias Rocher; Christian Rödenbeck; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Tobias Steinhoff; Adrienne Sutton; Pieter P. Tans; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. Van Der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. Van Der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Rebecca Wright; Sönke Zaehle. 2018. "Global Carbon Budget 2018." 2018, no. : 1-3.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Corinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Julia Pongratz; Andrew C. Manning; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Robert B. Jackson; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Oliver D. Andrews; Vivek K. Arora; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Leticia Barbero; Meike Becker; Richard A. Betts; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Catherine E. Cosca; Jessica Cross; Kim Currie; Thomas Gasser; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; Christopher W. Hunt; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Markus Kautz; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Ivan Lima; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Yukihiro Nojiri; X. Antonio Padin; Anna Peregon; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Janet Reimer; Christian Rödenbeck; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Steven van Heuven; Nicolas Viovy; Nicolas Vuichard; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Watson; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle; Dan Zhu. Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data 2018, 10, 405 -448.
AMA StyleCorinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Dan Zhu. Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data. 2018; 10 (1):405-448.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCorinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Julia Pongratz; Andrew C. Manning; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Robert B. Jackson; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Oliver D. Andrews; Vivek K. Arora; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Leticia Barbero; Meike Becker; Richard A. Betts; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Catherine E. Cosca; Jessica Cross; Kim Currie; Thomas Gasser; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; Christopher W. Hunt; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Markus Kautz; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Ivan Lima; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Yukihiro Nojiri; X. Antonio Padin; Anna Peregon; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Janet Reimer; Christian Rödenbeck; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Francesco N. Tubiello; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Steven van Heuven; Nicolas Viovy; Nicolas Vuichard; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Watson; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle; Dan Zhu. 2018. "Global Carbon Budget 2017." Earth System Science Data 10, no. 1: 405-448.
This paper presents an update and extension of HYDE, the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE version 3.2). HYDE is an internally consistent combination of historical population estimates and allocation algorithms with time-dependent weighting maps for land use. Categories include cropland, with new distinctions for irrigated and rain-fed crops (other than rice) and irrigated and rain-fed rice. Grazing lands are also provided, divided into more intensively used pasture and less intensively used rangeland, and further specified with respect to conversion of natural vegetation to facilitate global change modellers. Population is represented by maps of total, urban, rural population, population density and built-up area. The period covered is 10 000 before Common Era (BCE) to 2015 Common Era (CE). All data can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.17026/dans-25g-gez3. We estimate that global population increased from 4.4 million people (we also estimate a lower range < 0.01 and an upper range of 8.9 million) in 10 000 BCE to 7.257 billion in 2015 CE, resulting in a global population density increase from 0.03 persons (or capita, in short cap) km−2 (range 0–0.07) to almost 56 cap km−2 respectively. The urban built-up area evolved from almost zero to roughly 58 Mha in 2015 CE, still only less than 0.5 % of the total land surface of the globe. Cropland occupied approximately less than 1 % of the global land area (13 037 Mha, excluding Antarctica) for a long time period until 1 CE, quite similar to the grazing land area. In the following centuries the share of global cropland slowly grew to 2.2 % in 1700 CE (ca. 293 Mha, uncertainty range 220–367 Mha), 4.4 % in 1850 CE (578 Mha, range 522–637 Mha) and 12.2 % in 2015 CE (ca. 1591 Mha, range 1572–1604 Mha). Cropland can be further divided into rain-fed and irrigated land, and these categories can be further separated into rice and non-rice. Rain-fed croplands were much more common, with 2.2 % in 1700 CE (289 Mha, range 217–361 Mha), 4.2 % (549 Mha, range 496–606 Mha) in 1850 CE and 10.1 % (1316 Mha, range 1298–1325 Mha) in 2015 CE, while irrigated croplands used less than 0.05 % (4.3 Mha, range 3.1–5.5 Mha), 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 25–31 Mha) and 2.1 % (277 Mha, range 273–278 Mha) in 1700, 1850 and 2015 CE, respectively. We estimate the irrigated rice area (paddy) to be 0.1 % (13 Mha, range 9–16 Mha) in 1700 CE, 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 26–31 Mha) in 1850 CE and 0.9 % (118 Mha, range 117–120 Mha) in 2015 CE. The estimates for land used for grazing are much more uncertain. We estimate that the share of grazing land grew from 5.1 % in 1700 CE (667 Mha, range 507–820 Mha) to 9.6 % in 1850 CE (1192 Mha, range 1068–1304 Mha) and 24.9 % in 2015 CE (3241 Mha, range 3211–3270 Mha). To aid the modelling community we have divided land used for grazing into more intensively used pasture, less intensively used converted rangeland and less or unmanaged natural unconverted rangeland. Pasture occupied 1.1 % in 1700 CE (145 Mha, range 79–175 Mha), 1.9 % in 1850 CE (253 Mha, range 218–287 Mha) and 6.0 % (787 Mha, range 779–795 Mha) in 2015 CE, while rangelands usually occupied more space due to their occurrence in more arid regions and thus lower yields to sustain livestock. We estimate converted rangeland at 0.6 % in 1700 CE (82 Mha range 66–93 Mha), 1 % in 1850 CE (129 Mha range 118–136 Mha) and 2.4 % in 2015 CE (310 Mha range 306–312 Mha), while the unconverted natural rangelands occupied approximately 3.4 % in 1700 CE (437 Mha, range 334–533 Mha), 6.2 % in 1850 CE (810 Mha, range 733–881 Mha) and 16.5 % in 2015 CE (2145 Mha, range 2126–2164 Mha).
Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2. Earth System Science Data 2017, 9, 927 -953.
AMA StyleKees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, Jonathan Doelman, Elke Stehfest. Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2. Earth System Science Data. 2017; 9 (2):927-953.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. 2017. "Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2." Earth System Science Data 9, no. 2: 927-953.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 % to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3 GtC (2.5 ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Niño conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.
Corinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Julia Pongratz; Andrew C. Manning; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Robert B. Jackson; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Oliver D. Andrews; Vivek K. Arora; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Leticia Barbero; Meike Becker; Richard A. Betts; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Catherine E. Cosca; Jessica Cross; Kim Currie; Thomas Gasser; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; Christopher W. Hunt; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Markus Kautz; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Ivan Lima; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Yukihiro Nojiri; X. Antoni Padín; Anna Peregon; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Janet Reimer; Christian Rödenbeck; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Steven van Heuven; Nicolas Viovy; Nicolas Vuichard; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Watson; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle; Dan Zhu. Global Carbon Budget 2017. 2017, 1 .
AMA StyleCorinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antoni Padín, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Dan Zhu. Global Carbon Budget 2017. . 2017; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCorinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Pierre Friedlingstein; Stephen Sitch; Julia Pongratz; Andrew C. Manning; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Josep G. Canadell; Robert B. Jackson; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Oliver D. Andrews; Vivek K. Arora; Dorothee C. E. Bakker; Leticia Barbero; Meike Becker; Richard A. Betts; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Catherine E. Cosca; Jessica Cross; Kim Currie; Thomas Gasser; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Richard A. Houghton; Christopher W. Hunt; George Hurtt; Tatiana Ilyina; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Markus Kautz; Ralph F. Keeling; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Ivan Lima; Danica Lombardozzi; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Yukihiro Nojiri; X. Antoni Padín; Anna Peregon; Benjamin Pfeil; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Gregor Rehder; Janet Reimer; Christian Rödenbeck; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Steven van Heuven; Nicolas Viovy; Nicolas Vuichard; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Watson; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle; Dan Zhu. 2017. "Global Carbon Budget 2017." , no. : 1.
The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).
Johann H. Jungclaus; Edouard Bard; Mélanie Baroni; Pascale Braconnot; Jian Cao; Louise P. Chini; Tania Egorova; Michael Evans; J. Fidel González-Rouco; Hugues Goosse; George C. Hurtt; Fortunat Joos; Jed O. Kaplan; Myriam Khodri; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Natalie Krivova; Allegra N. LeGrande; Stephan J. Lorenz; Jürg Luterbacher; Wenmin Man; Amanda C. Maycock; Malte Meinshausen; Anders Moberg; Raimund Muscheler; Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles; Bette I. Otto-Bliesner; Steven J. Phipps; Julia Pongratz; Eugene Rozanov; Gavin A. Schmidt; Hauke Schmidt; Werner Schmutz; Andrew Schurer; Alexander I. Shapiro; Michael Sigl; Jason E. Smerdon; Sami K. Solanki; Claudia Timmreck; Matthew Toohey; Ilya G. Usoskin; Sebastian Wagner; Chi-Ju Wu; Kok Leng Yeo; Davide Zanchettin; Qiong Zhang; Eduardo Zorita. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. Geoscientific Model Development 2017, 10, 4005 -4033.
AMA StyleJohann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, Eduardo Zorita. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. Geoscientific Model Development. 2017; 10 (11):4005-4033.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJohann H. Jungclaus; Edouard Bard; Mélanie Baroni; Pascale Braconnot; Jian Cao; Louise P. Chini; Tania Egorova; Michael Evans; J. Fidel González-Rouco; Hugues Goosse; George C. Hurtt; Fortunat Joos; Jed O. Kaplan; Myriam Khodri; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Natalie Krivova; Allegra N. LeGrande; Stephan J. Lorenz; Jürg Luterbacher; Wenmin Man; Amanda C. Maycock; Malte Meinshausen; Anders Moberg; Raimund Muscheler; Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles; Bette I. Otto-Bliesner; Steven J. Phipps; Julia Pongratz; Eugene Rozanov; Gavin A. Schmidt; Hauke Schmidt; Werner Schmutz; Andrew Schurer; Alexander I. Shapiro; Michael Sigl; Jason E. Smerdon; Sami K. Solanki; Claudia Timmreck; Matthew Toohey; Ilya G. Usoskin; Sebastian Wagner; Chi-Ju Wu; Kok Leng Yeo; Davide Zanchettin; Qiong Zhang; Eduardo Zorita. 2017. "The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations." Geoscientific Model Development 10, no. 11: 4005-4033.
Kees Klein Goldewijk; Stefan Dekker; Jan Luiten Van Zanden. Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research. Journal of Land Use Science 2017, 1 .
AMA StyleKees Klein Goldewijk, Stefan Dekker, Jan Luiten Van Zanden. Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research. Journal of Land Use Science. 2017; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Klein Goldewijk; Stefan Dekker; Jan Luiten Van Zanden. 2017. "Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research." Journal of Land Use Science , no. : 1.
This paper presents an update and expansion of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE, v 3.2.000). HYDE is and internally consistent combination of updated historical population estimates and enhanced allocation algorithms with weighting maps for land use which are time-dependent. Categories include cropland, with a new distinction into irrigated and rain fed crops (other than rice) and irrigated and rain fed rice. Also grazing lands are provided, divided into more intensively used pasture and less intensively used rangeland. Population is represented by maps of total, urban, rural population and population density as well as built-up area. The period covered is 10 000 BCE to 2015 CE. We estimate that global population increased from 4.4 million people in 10 000 BCE to 7310 million in 2015 CE, resulting in a global population density increase of
Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2. 2016, 1 -40.
AMA StyleKees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, Jonathan Doelman, Elke Stehfest. New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2. . 2016; ():1-40.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. 2016. "New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2." , no. : 1-40.
Kees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. Supplementary material to "New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2". 2016, 1 .
AMA StyleKees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, Jonathan Doelman, Elke Stehfest. Supplementary material to "New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2". . 2016; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Klein Goldewijk; Arthur Beusen; Jonathan Doelman; Elke Stehfest. 2016. "Supplementary material to "New anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2"." , no. : 1.
The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial time scales. This manuscript describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents: orbital, solar, volcanic, land-use/land-cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the “tier-1” (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated “tier-2” simulations. Additional experiments (“tier-3”) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This manuscript outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).
Johann H. Jungclaus; Edouard Bard; Mélanie Baroni; Pascale Braconnot; Jian Cao; Louise P. Chini; Tania Egorova; Michael Evans; J. Fidel González-Rouco; Hugues Goosse; Georges C. Hurtt; Fortunat Joos; Jed O. Kaplan; Myriam Khodri; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Natalie Krivova; Allegra N. LeGrande; Stephan J. Lorenz; Jürg Luterbacher; Wenmin Man; Malte Meinshausen; Anders Moberg; Christian Nehrbass-Ahles; Bette I. Otto-Bliesner; Stephen J. Phipps; Julia Pongratz; Eugene Rozanov; Gavin A. Schmidt; Hauke Schmidt; Werner Schmutz; Andrew Schurer; Alexander I. Shapiro; Michael Sigl; Jason E. Smerdon; Sami K. Solanki; Claudia Timmreck; Matthew Toohey; Ilya G. Usoskin; Sebastian Wagner; Chi-Yu Wu; Kok L. Yeo; Davide Zanchettin; Qiong Zhang; Eduardo Zorita. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. 2016, 2016, 1 -34.
AMA StyleJohann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, Georges C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Christian Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Stephen J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Yu Wu, Kok L. Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, Eduardo Zorita. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. . 2016; 2016 ():1-34.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJohann H. Jungclaus; Edouard Bard; Mélanie Baroni; Pascale Braconnot; Jian Cao; Louise P. Chini; Tania Egorova; Michael Evans; J. Fidel González-Rouco; Hugues Goosse; Georges C. Hurtt; Fortunat Joos; Jed O. Kaplan; Myriam Khodri; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Natalie Krivova; Allegra N. LeGrande; Stephan J. Lorenz; Jürg Luterbacher; Wenmin Man; Malte Meinshausen; Anders Moberg; Christian Nehrbass-Ahles; Bette I. Otto-Bliesner; Stephen J. Phipps; Julia Pongratz; Eugene Rozanov; Gavin A. Schmidt; Hauke Schmidt; Werner Schmutz; Andrew Schurer; Alexander I. Shapiro; Michael Sigl; Jason E. Smerdon; Sami K. Solanki; Claudia Timmreck; Matthew Toohey; Ilya G. Usoskin; Sebastian Wagner; Chi-Yu Wu; Kok L. Yeo; Davide Zanchettin; Qiong Zhang; Eduardo Zorita. 2016. "The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations." 2016, no. : 1-34.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
Corinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Josep G. Canadell; Stephen Sitch; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Andrew C. Manning; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Richard A. Houghton; Ralph F. Keeling; Simone Alin; Oliver D. Andrews; Peter Anthoni; Leticia Barbero; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Kim Currie; Christine Delire; Scott C. Doney; Pierre Friedlingstein; Thanos Gkritzalis; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Mario Hoppema; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Joe R. Melton; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Kevin O'Brien; Are Olsen; Abdirahman M. Omar; Tsuneo Ono; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Christian Rödenbeck; Joe Salisbury; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Adrienne J. Sutton; Taro Takahashi; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data 2016, 8, 605 -649.
AMA StyleCorinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data. 2016; 8 (2):605-649.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCorinne Le Quéré; Robbie M. Andrew; Josep G. Canadell; Stephen Sitch; Jan Ivar Korsbakken; Glen P. Peters; Andrew C. Manning; Thomas A. Boden; Pieter P. Tans; Richard A. Houghton; Ralph F. Keeling; Simone Alin; Oliver D. Andrews; Peter Anthoni; Leticia Barbero; Laurent Bopp; Frédéric Chevallier; Louise P. Chini; Philippe Ciais; Kim Currie; Christine Delire; Scott C. Doney; Pierre Friedlingstein; Thanos Gkritzalis; Ian Harris; Judith Hauck; Vanessa Haverd; Mario Hoppema; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Atul K. Jain; Etsushi Kato; Arne Körtzinger; Peter Landschützer; Nathalie Lefèvre; Andrew Lenton; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Joe R. Melton; Nicolas Metzl; Frank Millero; Pedro M. S. Monteiro; David R. Munro; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka; Kevin O'Brien; Are Olsen; Abdirahman M. Omar; Tsuneo Ono; Denis Pierrot; Benjamin Poulter; Christian Rödenbeck; Joe Salisbury; Ute Schuster; Jörg Schwinger; Roland Séférian; Ingunn Skjelvan; Benjamin D. Stocker; Adrienne J. Sutton; Taro Takahashi; Hanqin Tian; Bronte Tilbrook; Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx; Guido R. van der Werf; Nicolas Viovy; Anthony P. Walker; Andrew J. Wiltshire; Sönke Zaehle. 2016. "Global Carbon Budget 2016." Earth System Science Data 8, no. 2: 605-649.