Ervin Zsoter

Mr. Ervin Zsoter

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

18Years (2009-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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7 September 2021 in Earth System Science Data
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JMJoaquín Muñoz-Sabater
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater
Emanuel DutraEmanuel Dutra
Emanuel Dutra
AAAnna Agustí-Panareda
Anna Agustí-Panareda
Clement AlbergelClement Albergel
Clement Albergel
GAGabriele Arduini
Gabriele Arduini
JTJean-Noël Thépaut
Jean-Noël Thépaut
Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset for the land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter referred to as ERA5-Land. Once completed, the period covered will span from 1950 to the present, with continuous updates to support land monitoring applications. ERA5-Land describes the evolution of the water and energy cycles over land in a consistent manner over the production period, which, among others, could be used to analyse trends and anomalies. This is achieved through global high-resolution numerical integrations of the ECMWF land surface model driven by the downscaled meteorological forcing from the ERA5 climate reanalysis, including an elevation correction for the thermodynamic near-surface state. ERA5-Land shares with ERA5 most of the parameterizations that guarantees the use of the state-of-the-art land surface modelling applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. A main advantage of ERA5-Land compared to ERA5 and the older ERA-Interim is the horizontal resolution, which is enhanced globally to 9 km compared to 31 km (ERA5) or 80 km (ERA-Interim), whereas the temporal resolution is hourly as in ERA5. Evaluation against independent in situ observations and global model or satellite-based reference datasets shows the added value of ERA5-Land in the description of the hydrological cycle, in particular with enhanced soil moisture and lake description, and an overall better agreement of river discharge estimations with available observations. However, ERA5-Land snow depth fields present a mixed performance when compared to those of ERA5, depending on geographical location and altitude. The description of the energy cycle shows comparable results with ERA5. Nevertheless, ERA5-Land reduces the global averaged root mean square error of the skin temperature, taking as reference MODIS data, mainly due to the contribution of coastal points where spatial resolution is important. Since January 2020, the ERA5-Land period available has extended from January 1981 to the near present, with a 2- to 3-month delay with respect to real time. The segment prior to 1981 is in production, aiming for a release of the whole dataset in summer/autumn 2021. The high spatial and temporal resolution of ERA5-Land, its extended period, and the consistency of the fields produced makes it a valuable dataset to support hydrological studies, to initialize NWP and climate models, and to support diverse applications dealing with water resource, land, and environmental management. The full ERA5-Land hourly (Muñoz-Sabater, 2019a) and monthly (Muñoz-Sabater, 2019b) averaged datasets presented in this paper are available through the C3S Climate Data Store at https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac and https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30, respectively.

7 September 2020 in Earth System Science Data
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SHShaun Harrigan
Shaun Harrigan
EZErvin Zsoter
Ervin Zsoter
LALorenzo Alfieri
Lorenzo Alfieri
CPChristel Prudhomme
Christel Prudhomme
Peter SalamonPeter Salamon
Peter Salamon
FPFlorian Pappenberger
Florian Pappenberger
Estimating how much water is flowing through rivers at the global scale is challenging due to a lack of observations in space and time. A way forward is to optimally combine the global network of earth system observations with advanced numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to generate consistent spatio-temporal maps of land, ocean, and atmospheric variables of interest, which is known as a reanalysis. While the current generation of NWP models output runoff at each grid cell, they currently do not produce river discharge at catchment scales directly and thus have limited utility in hydrological applications such as flood and drought monitoring and forecasting. This is overcome in the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; http://www.globalfloods.eu/, last access: 28 June 2020) by coupling surface and sub-surface runoff from the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) land surface model used within ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) with the LISFLOOD hydrological and channel routing model. The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate the GloFAS-ERA5 global river discharge reanalysis dataset launched on 5 November 2019 (version 2.1 release). The river discharge reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1∘ at a daily time step. An innovative feature is that it is produced in an operational environment so is available to users from 1 January 1979 until near real time (2 to 5 d behind real time). The reanalysis was evaluated against a global network of 1801 daily river discharge observation stations. Results found that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful against a mean flow benchmark in 86 % of catchments according to the modified Kling–Gupta efficiency skill score, although the strength of skill varied considerably with location. The global median Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.61 with an interquartile range of 0.44 to 0.74. The long-term and operational nature of the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis dataset provides a valuable dataset to the user community for applications ranging from monitoring global flood and drought conditions to the identification of hydroclimatic variability and change and as raw input for post-processing and machine learning methods that can add further value. The dataset is openly available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/cems-glofas-historical?tab=overview (last access: 28 June 2020) with the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.a4fdd6b9 (C3S, 2019).

1 November 2018 in Journal of Hydrology
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FHFeyera A. Hirpa
Feyera A. Hirpa
Peter SalamonPeter Salamon
Peter Salamon
HBHylke E. Beck
Hylke E. Beck
VLValerio Lorini
Valerio Lorini
LALorenzo Alfieri
Lorenzo Alfieri
SDSimon J. Dadson
Simon J. Dadson
• GloFAS was calibrated using daily streamflow data from 1287 stations worldwide. • Evolutionary Algorithm with parallel co-evolution of multiple simulations was used. • Parameters will be used in operational flood forecasting (www.globalfloods.eu). • Bias reduction in the forcings is needed to further improve the forecast skill.

18 July 2019 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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JTJamie Towner
Jamie Towner
HCHannah L. Cloke
Hannah L. Cloke
EZErvin Zsoter
Ervin Zsoter
ZFZachary Flamig
Zachary Flamig
JHJannis M. Hoch
Jannis M. Hoch
ESElisabeth M. Stephens
Elisabeth M. Stephens
Extreme flooding impacts millions of people that live within the Amazon floodplain. Global hydrological models (GHMs) are frequently used to assess and inform the management of flood risk, but knowledge on the skill of available models is required to inform their use and development. This paper presents an intercomparison of eight different GHMs freely available from collaborators of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP) for simulating floods in the Amazon basin. To gain insight into the strengths and shortcomings of each model, we assess their ability to reproduce daily and annual peak river flows against gauged observations at 75 hydrological stations over a 19-year period (1997–2015). As well as highlighting regional variability in the accuracy of simulated streamflow, these results indicate that (a) the meteorological input is the dominant control on the accuracy of both daily and annual maximum river flows, and (b) groundwater and routing calibration of Lisflood based on daily river flows has no impact on the ability to simulate flood peaks for the chosen river basin. These findings have important relevance for applications of large-scale hydrological models, including analysis of the impact of climate variability, assessment of the influence of long-term changes such as land-use and anthropogenic climate change, the assessment of flood likelihood, and for flood forecasting systems.

5 June 2021 in Atmosphere
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Souhail BoussettaSouhail Boussetta
Souhail Boussetta
Gianpaolo BalsamoGianpaolo Balsamo
Gianpaolo Balsamo
GAGabriele Arduini
Gabriele Arduini
Emanuel DutraEmanuel Dutra
Emanuel Dutra
JMJoe McNorton
Joe McNorton
EZErvin Zsoter
Ervin Zsoter
The land-surface developments of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are based on the Carbon-Hydrology Tiled Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and form an integral part of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), supporting a wide range of global weather, climate and environmental applications. In order to structure, coordinate and focus future developments and benefit from international collaboration in new areas, a flexible system named ECLand, which would facilitate modular extensions to support numerical weather prediction (NWP) and society-relevant operational services, for example, Copernicus, is presented. This paper introduces recent examples of novel ECLand developments on (i) vegetation; (ii) snow; (iii) soil; (iv) open water/lake; (v) river/inundation; and (vi) urban areas. The developments are evaluated separately with long-range, atmosphere-forced surface offline simulations and coupled land-atmosphere-ocean experiments. This illustrates the benchmark criteria for assessing both process fidelity with regards to land surface fluxes and reservoirs of the water-energy-carbon exchange on the one hand, and on the other hand the requirements of ECMWF’s NWP, climate and atmospheric composition monitoring services using an Earth system assimilation and prediction framework.

15 March 2017 in Nature Communications
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RER. Emerton
R. Emerton
HCH. L. Cloke
H. L. Cloke
ESE. M. Stephens
E. M. Stephens
EZErvin Zsoter
Ervin Zsoter
SWSteven Woolnough
Steven Woolnough
FPFlorian Pappenberger
Florian Pappenberger
El Niño and La Niña events, the extremes of ENSO climate variability, influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. Estimates of the historical probability of extreme (high or low) precipitation are used to provide vital information on the likelihood of adverse impacts during extreme ENSO events. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude motivates the need for estimation of historical probabilities using analysis of hydrological data sets. Here, this analysis is undertaken using the ERA-20CM-R river flow reconstruction for the twentieth century. Our results show that the likelihood of increased or decreased flood hazard during ENSO events is much more complex than is often perceived and reported; probabilities vary greatly across the globe, with large uncertainties inherent in the data and clear differences when comparing the hydrological analysis to precipitation.