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This paper introduces a new methodology to include daylight information in short-term load forecasting (STLF) models. The relation between daylight and power consumption is obvious due to the use of electricity in lighting in general. Nevertheless, very few STLF systems include this variable as an input. In addition, an analysis of one of the current STLF models at the Spanish Transmission System Operator (TSO), shows two humps in its error profile, occurring at sunrise and sunset times. The new methodology includes properly treated daylight information in STLF models in order to reduce the forecasting error during sunrise and sunset, especially when daylight savings time (DST) one-hour time shifts occur. This paper describes the raw information and the linearization method needed. The forecasting model used as the benchmark is currently used at the TSO’s headquarters and it uses both autoregressive (AR) and neural network (NN) components. The method has been designed with data from the Spanish electric system from 2011 to 2017 and tested over 2018 data. The results include a justification to use the proposed linearization over other techniques as well as a thorough analysis of the forecast results yielding an error reduction in sunset hours from 1.56% to 1.38% for the AR model and from 1.37% to 1.30% for the combined forecast. In addition, during the weeks in which DST shifts are implemented, sunset error drops from 2.53% to 2.09%.
Miguel López; Sergio Valero; Carlos Sans; Carolina Senabre. Use of Available Daylight to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting Accuracy. Energies 2020, 14, 95 .
AMA StyleMiguel López, Sergio Valero, Carlos Sans, Carolina Senabre. Use of Available Daylight to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting Accuracy. Energies. 2020; 14 (1):95.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel López; Sergio Valero; Carlos Sans; Carolina Senabre. 2020. "Use of Available Daylight to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting Accuracy." Energies 14, no. 1: 95.
Short-Term Load Forecasting is a very relevant aspect in managing, operating or participating an electric system. From system operators to energy producers and retailers knowing the electric demand in advance with high accuracy is a key feature for their business. The load series of a given system presents highly repetitive daily, weekly and yearly patterns. However, other factors like temperature or social events cause abnormalities in this otherwise periodic behavior. In order to develop an effective load forecasting system, it is necessary to understand and model these abnormalities because, in many cases, the higher forecasting error typical of these special days is linked to the larger part of the losses related to load forecasting. This paper focuses on the effect that several types of special days have on the load curve and how important it is to model these behaviors in detail. The paper analyzes the Spanish national system and it uses linear regression to model the effect that social events like holidays or festive periods have on the load curve. The results presented in this paper show that a large classification of events is needed in order to accurately model all the events that may occur in a 7-year period.
Miguel Lopez; Carlos Sans; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre. Classification of Special Days in Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Spanish Case Study. Energies 2019, 12, 1253 .
AMA StyleMiguel Lopez, Carlos Sans, Sergio Valero, Carolina Senabre. Classification of Special Days in Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Spanish Case Study. Energies. 2019; 12 (7):1253.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel Lopez; Carlos Sans; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre. 2019. "Classification of Special Days in Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Spanish Case Study." Energies 12, no. 7: 1253.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been widely used in Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) in the last 20 years and it has partly displaced older time-series and statistical methods to a second row. However, the STLF problem is very particular and specific to each case and, while there are many papers about AI applications, there is little research determining which features of an STLF system is better suited for a specific data set. In many occasions both classical and modern methods coexist, providing combined forecasts that outperform the individual ones. This paper presents a thorough empirical comparison between Neural Networks (NN) and Autoregressive (AR) models as forecasting engines. The objective of this paper is to determine the circumstances under which each model shows a better performance. It analyzes one of the models currently in use at the National Transport System Operator in Spain, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), which combines both techniques. The parameters that are tested are the availability of historical data, the treatment of exogenous variables, the training frequency and the configuration of the model. The performance of each model is measured as RMSE over a one-year period and analyzed under several factors like special days or extreme temperatures. The AR model has 0.13% lower error than the NN under ideal conditions. However, the NN model performs more accurately under certain stress situations.
Miguel López; Carlos Sans; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre. Empirical Comparison of Neural Network and Auto-Regressive Models in Short-Term Load Forecasting. Energies 2018, 11, 2080 .
AMA StyleMiguel López, Carlos Sans, Sergio Valero, Carolina Senabre. Empirical Comparison of Neural Network and Auto-Regressive Models in Short-Term Load Forecasting. Energies. 2018; 11 (8):2080.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel López; Carlos Sans; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre. 2018. "Empirical Comparison of Neural Network and Auto-Regressive Models in Short-Term Load Forecasting." Energies 11, no. 8: 2080.
In the past decade, many techniques ranging from statistical methods to complex artificial intelligence systems have been proposed by implementing their application to an electric system and highlighting its performance; usually providing a measure of accuracy like RMSE over a definite period. However, there is little research in which a fair comparison among methods is demonstrated, and it is difficult to determine which method would be better suited to a particular electric system or data set. This paper analysis one of the forecasting models running at the National Transport Operator of the Spanish system (REE), which is based on both autoregressive and neural network techniques. The results of this paper help to determine under which circumstances each of the models shows a better performance, which periods are more accurately forecasted by each model and provide valid criteria to choose one or the other depending on the characteristics of the application.
M. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Sans; C. Senabre; A. Gabaldon. Comparison of Short-Term Load Forecasting Performance by Neural Network and Autoregressive Based Models. 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) 2018, 1 -5.
AMA StyleM. Lopez, S. Valero, C. Sans, C. Senabre, A. Gabaldon. Comparison of Short-Term Load Forecasting Performance by Neural Network and Autoregressive Based Models. 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). 2018; ():1-5.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Sans; C. Senabre; A. Gabaldon. 2018. "Comparison of Short-Term Load Forecasting Performance by Neural Network and Autoregressive Based Models." 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) , no. : 1-5.
A. Martínez; C. Senabre; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Sans. Macroeconomic indicators analysis for energy sustainability. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 2018, 1, 197 -202.
AMA StyleA. Martínez, C. Senabre, S. Valero, E. Velasco, C. Sans. Macroeconomic indicators analysis for energy sustainability. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal. 2018; 1 ():197-202.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Martínez; C. Senabre; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Sans. 2018. "Macroeconomic indicators analysis for energy sustainability." Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 1, no. : 197-202.
This paper presents an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The starting point of the design is a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, which is based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. The integration of several regions into a linear mixed model allows using the information from other regions to learn general behaviors present in all regions while also identifying individual deviation in each regions. This technique is especially useful when modeling the effect of special days for which information from the past is scarce. The model described has been applied to the three most relevant regions of the system, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark.
M. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Senabre. Short-term load forecasting of multiregion systems using mixed effects models. 2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) 2017, 1 -5.
AMA StyleM. Lopez, S. Valero, C. Senabre. Short-term load forecasting of multiregion systems using mixed effects models. 2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). 2017; ():1-5.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Senabre. 2017. "Short-term load forecasting of multiregion systems using mixed effects models." 2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) , no. : 1-5.
A. Martínez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; E. Velasco. Energy efficiency strategies to improve productivity and competitiveness of the EU countries. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 2017, 1, 911 -916.
AMA StyleA. Martínez, S. Valero, C. Senabre, E. Velasco. Energy efficiency strategies to improve productivity and competitiveness of the EU countries. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal. 2017; 1 (15):911-916.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Martínez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; E. Velasco. 2017. "Energy efficiency strategies to improve productivity and competitiveness of the EU countries." Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 1, no. 15: 911-916.
Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) has been a relevant research topic for over two decades now. However, it is an ongoing process since the behavior of consumers and producers continue changing as new technologies and new policies become available. This paper presents the results of a research study for the Spanish Transport System Operator (REE) with the objective of improving the forecasting accuracy in the Balearic Islands. Specifically, this paper will focus on the introduction of meteorological variables other than temperature to reduce forecasting error. The forecasted variables of solar radiation, cloudiness and wind velocity are included in the proposed forecasting model and their effect is analyzed in terms of overall accuracy. Also, a brief analysis of which type of days are actually improved by the use of this new information is presented and used to provide new research guidelines.
M. Lopez; S. Valero; C Senabre; A. Gabaldon. Analysis of the influence of meteorological variables on real-time Short-Term Load Forecasting in Balearic Islands. 2017 11th IEEE International Conference on Compatibility, Power Electronics and Power Engineering (CPE-POWERENG) 2017, 10 -15.
AMA StyleM. Lopez, S. Valero, C Senabre, A. Gabaldon. Analysis of the influence of meteorological variables on real-time Short-Term Load Forecasting in Balearic Islands. 2017 11th IEEE International Conference on Compatibility, Power Electronics and Power Engineering (CPE-POWERENG). 2017; ():10-15.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Lopez; S. Valero; C Senabre; A. Gabaldon. 2017. "Analysis of the influence of meteorological variables on real-time Short-Term Load Forecasting in Balearic Islands." 2017 11th IEEE International Conference on Compatibility, Power Electronics and Power Engineering (CPE-POWERENG) , no. : 10-15.
A. Martinez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; E. Velasco. Sustainability as a Paradigm of Energy Policy. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 2016, 662 -667.
AMA StyleA. Martinez, S. Valero, C. Senabre, E. Velasco. Sustainability as a Paradigm of Energy Policy. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal. 2016; ():662-667.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Martinez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; E. Velasco. 2016. "Sustainability as a Paradigm of Energy Policy." Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal , no. : 662-667.
C Senabre; S Valero; E Velasco. Comparing Variability of Parameters between Roller Bed Brakes Testers and Dynamometric Platform of Ministry Of Transport Facilities. MATEC Web of Conferences 2015, 34, 05004 .
AMA StyleC Senabre, S Valero, E Velasco. Comparing Variability of Parameters between Roller Bed Brakes Testers and Dynamometric Platform of Ministry Of Transport Facilities. MATEC Web of Conferences. 2015; 34 ():05004.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC Senabre; S Valero; E Velasco. 2015. "Comparing Variability of Parameters between Roller Bed Brakes Testers and Dynamometric Platform of Ministry Of Transport Facilities." MATEC Web of Conferences 34, no. : 05004.
C. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. Differences in Brake Data Results on Ministry of Transport Roller Bank Testers Such as: Maha, Ryme, with Different Distance between Rollers and Roughness of Rollers. Journal of Mechanics Engineering and Automation 2015, 5, 1 .
AMA StyleC. Senabre, E. Velasco, S. Valero. Differences in Brake Data Results on Ministry of Transport Roller Bank Testers Such as: Maha, Ryme, with Different Distance between Rollers and Roughness of Rollers. Journal of Mechanics Engineering and Automation. 2015; 5 (10):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. 2015. "Differences in Brake Data Results on Ministry of Transport Roller Bank Testers Such as: Maha, Ryme, with Different Distance between Rollers and Roughness of Rollers." Journal of Mechanics Engineering and Automation 5, no. 10: 1.
M. Martínez; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Senabre. Trends in electricity prices and their relation to the competitiveness and efficiency in UE countries. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 2015, 179 -183.
AMA StyleM. Martínez, S. Valero, E. Velasco, C. Senabre. Trends in electricity prices and their relation to the competitiveness and efficiency in UE countries. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal. 2015; ():179-183.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Martínez; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Senabre. 2015. "Trends in electricity prices and their relation to the competitiveness and efficiency in UE countries." Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal , no. : 179-183.
The aim of this research is to compare which parameters may vary when braking on different Ministry of Transport (MOT) brake testers, such as roller bed brake tester and dynamometric platform. Different types of brake testers have been used and analyzed by the mechanical engineering staffs at the mechanical laboratory at the Miguel Hernández University. It has been analyzed which parameters can vary the result of the brake test, and advances and disadvantages of each brake tester.
Senabre C.. Comparative Analysis of Various Brake Testers Used in Ministry of Transport Facilities, such as: Bank of Roller Testers and Dynamometric Platform Testers. Advances in Automobile Engineering 2015, 4, 1 .
AMA StyleSenabre C.. Comparative Analysis of Various Brake Testers Used in Ministry of Transport Facilities, such as: Bank of Roller Testers and Dynamometric Platform Testers. Advances in Automobile Engineering. 2015; 4 (2):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSenabre C.. 2015. "Comparative Analysis of Various Brake Testers Used in Ministry of Transport Facilities, such as: Bank of Roller Testers and Dynamometric Platform Testers." Advances in Automobile Engineering 4, no. 2: 1.
C. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. Experimental Analysis of the Influence of Toe Angle in Relation to Tire Pressure in the Measurement of Brake Forces at Spanish Ministry of Transport Test Facilities. Journal of Testing and Evaluation 2014, 43, 20130287 .
AMA StyleC. Senabre, E. Velasco, S. Valero. Experimental Analysis of the Influence of Toe Angle in Relation to Tire Pressure in the Measurement of Brake Forces at Spanish Ministry of Transport Test Facilities. Journal of Testing and Evaluation. 2014; 43 (3):20130287.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. 2014. "Experimental Analysis of the Influence of Toe Angle in Relation to Tire Pressure in the Measurement of Brake Forces at Spanish Ministry of Transport Test Facilities." Journal of Testing and Evaluation 43, no. 3: 20130287.
The article presents an economical study of the use of electric vehicles (Evs) in terms of years of amortization money saved and cost and expenses, etc. It has been compared combustion vehicles with the electric counterparts in terms of power and features appreciated by the user in the automobile market. The purpose of the study was to analyze the feasibility to recharge different electric vehicles by solar photovoltaic modules, so that energy generation would not contribute to any CO2 emissions, when the system would be installed and ready to supply these vehicles. The study also shows a comparative analysis of the cost of purchasing electricity to the distributor compared with the using of a photovoltaic system designed to recharge the vehicle, even it has also been calculated the depreciation. Finally, it has been analyzed comparatively the type of the solar photovoltaic system considered more economically viable for recharging a pure EV, therefore it has been compared projects on houses and on a parking to recharge several vehicles.
Sergio Valero Verdú; Carolina Senabre Blanes; Demetrio López Sánchez. Study of Economic Feasibility to Recharge Different Types of Electric Vehicles With Photovoltaic Solar Panels. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 2014, 136, 044502 .
AMA StyleSergio Valero Verdú, Carolina Senabre Blanes, Demetrio López Sánchez. Study of Economic Feasibility to Recharge Different Types of Electric Vehicles With Photovoltaic Solar Panels. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering. 2014; 136 (4):044502.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSergio Valero Verdú; Carolina Senabre Blanes; Demetrio López Sánchez. 2014. "Study of Economic Feasibility to Recharge Different Types of Electric Vehicles With Photovoltaic Solar Panels." Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 136, no. 4: 044502.
A. Martínez; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Senabre. Energy intensity of the economy as a variable to measure the energy efficiency of a country: comparison between European member states. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal 2014, 246 -250.
AMA StyleA. Martínez, S. Valero, E. Velasco, C. Senabre. Energy intensity of the economy as a variable to measure the energy efficiency of a country: comparison between European member states. Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal. 2014; ():246-250.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Martínez; S. Valero; E. Velasco; C. Senabre. 2014. "Energy intensity of the economy as a variable to measure the energy efficiency of a country: comparison between European member states." Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal , no. : 246-250.
This study performs a comparison between what occurs when braking on a Ministry of Transport (MOT) brake tester and on flat ground. The tire pressure is changed, but the other parameters remain constant. The results from this research and from the in-depth comparative study conducted by the mechanical engineering staff in the mechanical laboratory at the Miguel Hernández University in Elche have led to the following main conclusions: By varying the tire pressure, false results can be obtained with the MOT brake tester, which means that, if the tires are inflated at a low pressure but the brakes are in good condition, the vehicle will not pass the MOT. Conversely, if the brakes are in poor condition but the tire pressure is higher than what is recommended by the manufacturer, a false pass is produced. This article shows that the MOT brake testing equipment is often wrong and inexact, and the data and graphs presented prove that the tire pressure is a determining factor when assessing the condition of brakes.
C. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. Comparative analysis of vehicle brake data in the ministry of transport test on the roller brake tester and on flat ground. International Journal of Automotive Technology 2012, 13, 735 -742.
AMA StyleC. Senabre, E. Velasco, S. Valero. Comparative analysis of vehicle brake data in the ministry of transport test on the roller brake tester and on flat ground. International Journal of Automotive Technology. 2012; 13 (5):735-742.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. 2012. "Comparative analysis of vehicle brake data in the ministry of transport test on the roller brake tester and on flat ground." International Journal of Automotive Technology 13, no. 5: 735-742.
This paper proposes the use of an indicator of the predictability of the load series along with an accuracy value such as Mean Average Percentage Error as standard measures of load forecasting performance. Over the last 10 years, there has been a significant increase in load forecasting models proposed in engineering journals. Most of these models provide a description of the inner design of the model, the results from applying this model to a specific data base and the conclusions drawn from this application. However, a single accuracy value may not be sufficient to describe the performance of the model when applied to other data bases. The aim of this paper is to provide researchers with a tool that is able to assess the predictability of a load series and, therefore, contextualize the forecasting accuracy reported. Thirteen different data bases were used to determine its validity.
Miguel López; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre; Antonio Gabaldón. Short-term load forecasting: Revising how good we actually are. 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2012, 1 -6.
AMA StyleMiguel López, Sergio Valero, Carolina Senabre, Antonio Gabaldón. Short-term load forecasting: Revising how good we actually are. 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting. 2012; ():1-6.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMiguel López; Sergio Valero; Carolina Senabre; Antonio Gabaldón. 2012. "Short-term load forecasting: Revising how good we actually are." 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting , no. : 1-6.
C. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. Comparative Analysis of Brake Data of Vehicles on Two Different Ministry of Transport Brake Roller Testers. Journal of Testing and Evaluation 2012, 40, 104559 .
AMA StyleC. Senabre, E. Velasco, S. Valero. Comparative Analysis of Brake Data of Vehicles on Two Different Ministry of Transport Brake Roller Testers. Journal of Testing and Evaluation. 2012; 40 (4):104559.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Senabre; E. Velasco; S. Valero. 2012. "Comparative Analysis of Brake Data of Vehicles on Two Different Ministry of Transport Brake Roller Testers." Journal of Testing and Evaluation 40, no. 4: 104559.
There has been a significant production of load forecasting models over the last 5 years. These models present a wide variety of techniques, most of them using novel artificial intelligence approaches. Load forecasting is a complex matter and it is the result of several processes that, depending on the database, may be of more or less importance. However, most models focus their attention only on one process like the “forecasting engine”, neglecting other processes like variable selection or pre-processing. This paper proposes a standard scheme for load forecasting models that includes all sub-processes within load forecasting. The analysis of load forecasting models through this scheme allows identifying the effect of each process on the overall performance of the model. Also, proposing load forecasting models following this scheme will enhance benchmarking possibilities and hybridization of models. Finally, this paper presents such analysis of an actual load forecasting model.
M. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; J. Aparicio; Antonio Gabaldon. Standardization of short-term load forecasting models. 2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market 2012, 1 -7.
AMA StyleM. Lopez, S. Valero, C. Senabre, J. Aparicio, Antonio Gabaldon. Standardization of short-term load forecasting models. 2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market. 2012; ():1-7.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Lopez; S. Valero; C. Senabre; J. Aparicio; Antonio Gabaldon. 2012. "Standardization of short-term load forecasting models." 2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market , no. : 1-7.