Elasmobranch populations are declining worldwide, calling for urgent assessment of fishery exploitation and application of effective conservation strategies. Here, we applied a novel approach, integrating long-term time-series of landings (1945–2012) and extensive surveys at the fish market of Chioggia, Italy, home of the major fishing fleet of the northern Adriatic Sea, to evaluate the status of elasmobranch populations and fisheries in the one of the most fished Mediterranean basins. The time-series highlight a dramatic decline in elasmobranch landings, particularly for skates and catsharks (Scyliorhinus spp.), whose current catch rates are 2.4 and 10.6% of the average 1940s levels, respectively. These data likely reflect similar large reductions in abundance, as indicated by the analysis of catch-per unit-effort time-series. The biomass of landed skates and catsharks showed regular fluctuations that disappeared after the collapse of the landings. Elasmobranch market composition, assessed through the sampling of 11 900 specimens from 2006 to 2013, included 14 species, but was dominated by just two: Mustelus mustelus and M. punctulatus, which represented more than 60% of the catch. The proportion of sexually immature individuals was generally very high, up to 83% of landed females and 71% of landed males, depending on the species. Although some correlations were detected between landings and local hydrography or climatic indices, the analyses of landings and surveys at the fish market identified fishery exploitation as the main driver of the striking, long-term elasmobranch decline in the northern Adriatic Sea, calling for urgent management actions to improve the conservation status of these fish.

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.