Significance: Autumnal phenological shifts (leaf senescence and dormancy) because of climate change bring substantial impacts on community and ecosystem processes (e.g. altered C and N cycling and phenological mismatches) and the fall foliage ecotourism industry. However, the understanding of the environmental control of autumn phenology has changed little over the past 60 y. We found that cold, frost, wet, and high heat-stress lead to earlier dormancy dates across temperate deciduous forest communities, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Divergent future responses of fall dormancy timing were predicted: later for northern regions and earlier for southern areas. Our findings improve understanding of autumn phenology mechanisms and suggests complex interactions among environmental conditions affecting autumn phenology now and in the future.

Significance: Invasive species are often expected to benefit from novel conditions encountered with global change. Our range models based on demography show that invasive Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) may have much lower establishment in New England under future climate, despite prolific success under current climate, whereas other invasive and native plants may expand their ranges. Forecasts suggest that management should focus on inhibiting northward spread of A. petiolata into unoccupied areas and understanding source–sink population dynamics and how community dynamics might respond to loss of A. petiolata (it modifies soil properties). Our methods illustrate inadequacy of current approaches to forecasting invasions in progress, which are based on correlations between species’ occurrence and environment and illustrate critical need for mechanistic studies.

Plant leaf phenology is typically observed either via ground‐based visual observations on individuals or via remote sensing of land surface vegetation. To integrate phenological information from both data sources, collected at different spatial scales using different observational protocols, digital cameras were deployed spanning canopy areas with enough spatial resolution to identify temporal changes in individual deciduous tree species with continuous observations. Comparisons of phenology between camera photography and in situ observations have been reported in prior studies; however, it is still unclear that how these camera images relate to field observations at individual and species levels, and how the metrics from those images provide comparable species‐specific phenological responses to environmental variation. We set a suite of digital time‐lapse cameras to acquire continuous photographs of deciduous tree canopies and conducted ground‐based visual observations in Connecticut,USA, from 2012 to 2014. Comparisons between image‐derived dates and observed phenological dates showed that both green and red color indices could be matched to ground observations, and red color indices showed good performance in matching autumn phenology across our group of eight tree species that dominate the southern New England forests. Linear mixed‐effects models were applied to investigate the relationships between climatic/weather conditions and the timing of peak and of intensity of red color in fall foliage for each species. Model results suggested that temperature, precipitation, drought stress in autumn, and heat stress in summer are all important factors to the timing of peak fall foliage color and that higher minimum temperatures (or lower cold degree‐day accumulation) in the autumn are linked to higher intensity of red coloration at least in sugar maples. This study improves our understanding of temporal and spatial variation in the phenology of deciduous trees captured by digital cameras. As well, this provides insights into relating species‐specific information on phenology from visual observations in the field to near‐surface remote sensing and points to the need for further research on autumn phenology using the change in redness of tree canopies.

Summary: Plant–pollinator mutualisms rely upon the synchrony of interacting taxa. Climate change can disrupt this synchrony as phenological responses to climate vary within and across species. However, intra‐ and interspecific variation in phenological responses is seldom considered simultaneously, limiting our understanding of climate change impacts on interactions among taxa across their ranges. We investigated how variation in phenological sensitivity to climate can alter ecological interactions simultaneously within and among species using natural history collections and citizen science data. We focus on a unique system, comprising a wide‐ranged spring ephemeral with varying color morphs (Claytonia virginica) and its specialist bee pollinator (Andrena erigeniae). We found strongly opposing trends in the phenological sensitivities of plants vs their pollinators. Flowering phenology was more sensitive to temperature in warmer regions, whereas bee phenology was more responsive in colder regions. Phenological sensitivity varied across flower color morphs. Temporal synchrony between flowering and pollinator activity was predicted to change heterogeneously across the species' ranges in the future. Our work demonstrates the complexity and fragility of ecological interactions in time and the necessity of incorporating variation in phenological responses across multiple axes to understand how such interactions will change in the future.