Predicting corporate bankruptcy is one of the fundamental tasks in credit risk assessment. In particular, since the 2007/2008 financial crisis, it has become a priority for most financial institutions, practitioners, and academics. The recent advancements in machine learning (ML) enabled the development of several models for bankruptcy prediction. The most challenging aspect of this task is dealing with the class imbalance due to the rarity of bankruptcy events in the real economy. Furthermore, a fair comparison in the literature is difficult to make because bankruptcy datasets are not publicly available and because studies often restrict their datasets to specific economic sectors and markets and/or time periods. In this work, we investigated the design and the application of different ML models to two different tasks related to default events: (a) estimating survival probabilities over time; (b) default prediction using time-series accounting data with different lengths. The entire dataset used for the experiments has been made available to the scientific community for further research and benchmarking purposes. The dataset pertains to 8262 different public companies listed on the American stock market between 1999 and 2018. Finally, in light of the results obtained, we critically discuss the most interesting metrics as proposed benchmarks for future studies.

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains an open problem for several reasons. One of these concerns the difficulty to model a complex system at a high resolution (fine-grained) level at which the spread can be simulated by taking into account individual features. Agent-based modeling usually needs to find an optimal trade-off between the resolution of the simulation and the population size. Indeed, modeling single individuals usually leads to simulations of smaller populations or the use of meta-populations. In this article, we propose a solution to efficiently model the Covid-19 spread in Lombardy, themost populated Italian region with about ten million people. In particular, the model described in this paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first attempt in literature to model a large population at the single-individual level. To achieve this goal, we propose a framework that implements: i. a scale-free model of the social contacts combining a sociability rate, demographic information, and geographical assumptions; ii. a multi-agent system relying on the actor model and the High-Performance Computing technology to efficiently implement ten million concurrent agents. We simulated the epidemic scenario from January to April 2020 and from August to December 2020, modeling the government’s lockdown policies and people’s mask-wearing habits. The social modeling approach we propose could be rapidly adapted for modeling future epidemics at their early stage in scenarios where little prior knowledge is available.

With the recent advances in machine learning (ML), several models have been successfully applied to financial and accounting data to predict the likelihood of companies’ bankruptcy. However, time series have received little attention in the literature, with a lack of studies on the application of deep learning sequence models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and the recent Attention-based models in general. In this research work, we investigated the application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to exploit time series of accounting data for bankruptcy prediction. The main contributions of our work are the following: (a) We proposed a multi-head LSTM that models each financial variable in a time window independently and compared it with a single-input LSTM and other traditional ML models. The multi-head LSTM outperformed all the other models. (b) We identified the optimal time series length for bankruptcy prediction to be equal to 4 years of accounting data. (c) We made public the dataset we used for the experiments which includes data from 8262 different public companies in the American stock market generated in the period between 1999 and 2018. Furthermore, we proved the efficacy of the multi-head LSTM model in terms of fewer false positives and the better division of the two classes.

This paper presents an approach for the modeling and the simulation of the spreading of COVID-19 based on agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). Our goal is not only to support large-scale simulations but also to increase the simulation resolution. Moreover, we do not assume an underlying network of contacts, and the person-to-person contacts responsible for the spreading are modeled as a function of the geographical distance among the individuals. In particular, we defined a commuting mechanism combining radiation-based and gravity-based models and we exploited the commuting properties at different resolution levels (municipalities and provinces). Finally, we exploited the high-performance computing (HPC) facilities to simulate millions of concurrent agents, each mapping the individual’s behavior. To do such simulations, we developed a spreading simulator and validated it through the simulation of the spreading in two of the most populated Italian regions: Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna. Our main achievement consists of the effective modeling of 10 million of concurrent agents, each one mapping an individual behavior with a high-resolution in terms of social contacts, mobility and contribution to the virus spreading. Moreover, we analyzed the forecasting ability of our framework to predict the number of infections being initialized with only a few days of real data. We validated our model with the statistical data coming from the serological analysis conducted in Lombardy, and our model makes a smaller error than other state of the art models with a final root mean squared error equal to 56,009 simulating the entire first pandemic wave in spring 2020. On the other hand, for the Emilia-Romagna region, we simulated the second pandemic wave during autumn 2020, and we reached a final RMSE equal to 10,730.11.

Background: Management of operating rooms is a critical point in health care organizations because surgical departments represent a significant cost in hospital budgets. Therefore, it is increasingly important that there is effective planning of elective, emergency, and day surgery and optimization of both the human and physical resources available, always maintaining a high level of care and health treatment. This would lead to a reduction in patient waiting lists and better performance not only of surgical departments but also of the entire hospital. Objective: This study aims to automatically collect data from a real surgical scenario to develop an integrated technological-organizational model that optimizes operating block resources. Methods: Each patient is tracked and located in real time by wearing a bracelet sensor with a unique identifier. Exploiting the indoor location, the software architecture is able to collect the time spent for every step inside the surgical block. This method does not in any way affect the level of assistance that the patient receives and always protects their privacy; in fact, after expressing informed consent, each patient will be associated with an anonymous identification number. Results: The preliminary results are promising, making the study feasible and functional. Times automatically recorded are much more precise than those collected by humans and reported in the organization’s information system. In addition, machine learning can exploit the historical data collection to predict the surgery time required for each patient according to the patient’s specific profile. Simulation can also be applied to reproduce the system’s functioning, evaluate current performance, and identify strategies to improve the efficiency of the operating block. Conclusions: This functional approach improves short- and long-term surgical planning, facilitating interaction between the various professionals involved in the operating block, optimizing the management of available resources, and guaranteeing a high level of patient care in an increasingly efficient health care system. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05106621; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05106621 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/45477