The spatiotemporal variations of the drought scenario over the Bundelkhand region in central India have been studied using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the time scales of 3, 6, and 12 months. The space-time variability of the drought characteristics has been analyzed using the SPI, which is based only on long-term monthly rainfall data. From this analysis, it is determined that the frequency and severity of droughts have increased over the last decade in the Bundelkhand region and varied between once in 3 years and once in 5 years. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis of climatic variables has been applied to investigate the regular occurrences of drought during the last few decades. The sign test indicates that there is a falling trend in the seasonal rainfall and number of rainy days in a few blocks. However, statistically significant falling trends at a 95% confidence level have been observed with the 3-month SPI for many blocks in the region, indicative of the increasing severity of drought during the principal rainy months (July, August, and September). The spatiotemporal analysis, which included progression and withdrawal of drought over the region, indicates that every drought event has its own unique characteristics, including its onset, severity, frequency, duration, area of influence and the magnitude of the losses caused by it. The severity of recent drought events shows a more widespread aerial extent in the region. It is observed that the area under the influence of drought in the Bundelkhand during the year 2007 varied between 79.5% (July) and 100% (August). The comprehensive analysis does not indicate any climate change signal and study recommends that effective use of water resources may be the key to address the drought in Bundelkhand region.

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.