The global consumption of dairy produce is forecasted to increase by 19% per person by 2050. However, milk production is an intense energy consuming process. Coupled with concerns related to global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, increasing the production of milk must be met with the sustainable use of energy resources, to ensure the future monetary and environmental sustainability of the dairy industry. This body of work focused on summarizing and reviewing dairy energy research from the monitoring, prediction modelling and analyses point of view. Total primary energy consumption values in literature ranged from 2.7 MJ kg−1 Energy Corrected Milk on organic dairy farming systems to 4.2 MJ kg−1 Energy Corrected Milk on conventional dairy farming systems. Variances in total primary energy requirements were further assessed according to whether confinement or pasture-based systems were employed. Overall, a 35% energy reduction was seen across literature due to employing a pasture-based dairy system. Compared to standard regression methods, increased prediction accuracy has been demonstrated in energy literature due to employing various machine-learning algorithms. Dairy energy prediction models have been frequently utilized throughout literature to conduct dairy energy analyses, for estimating the impact of changes to infrastructural equipment and managerial practices.
The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of 3 different modeling techniques for the prediction of total daily herd milk yield from a herd of 140 lactating pasture-based dairy cows over varying forecast horizons. A nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input, a static artificial neural network, and a multiple linear regression model were developed using 3 yr of historical milk-production data. The models predicted the total daily herd milk yield over a full season using a 305-d forecast horizon and 50-, 30-, and 10-d moving piecewise horizons to test the accuracy of the models over long- and short-term periods. All 3 models predicted the daily production levels for a full lactation of 305 d with a percentage root mean square error (RMSE) of ≤ 12.03%. However, the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input was capable of increasing its prediction accuracy as the horizon was shortened from 305 to 50, 30, and 10 d [RMSE (%)=8.59, 8.1, 6.77, 5.84], whereas the static artificial neural network [RMSE (%)=12.03, 12.15, 11.74, 10.7] and the multiple linear regression model [RMSE (%)=10.62, 10.68, 10.62, 10.54] were not able to reduce their forecast error over the same horizons to the same extent. For this particular application the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input can be presented as a more accurate alternative to conventional regression modeling techniques, especially for short-term milk-yield predictions.
1 July 2018 in Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
Hyperspectral and multispectral imagery have been demonstrated to have a considerable potential for near real-time monitoring and mapping of grass quality indicators. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of remote sensing techniques for quantification of aboveground grass biomass (BM) and crude protein (CP) in a temperate European climate such as Ireland. The experiment was conducted on 64 plots and 53 paddocks with varying quantities of nitrogen applied. Hyperspectral imagery (HSI) and multispectral imagery (MSI) were analyzed to develop the prediction models. The MSI data used in this study were captured using an unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAV) and the satellite Sentinel-2, while the HSI data were obtained using a handheld hyperspectral camera. The prediction models were developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR) and stepwise multi-linear regression (MLR). Eventually, the spatial distribution of grass biomass over plots and paddocks was mapped to assess the within-field variability of grass quality metrics. An excellent accuracy was achieved for the prediction of BM and CP using HSI (RPD > 2.5 and R2 > 0.8), and a good accuracy was obtained via MSI-UAV (2 < RPD < 2.5 and R2 > 0.7) for the grass quality indicators. The accuracy of the models calculated using MSI-Sentinel-2 was reasonable for BM prediction and insufficient for CP estimation. The red-edge range of the wavelengths showed the maximum impact on the predictability of grass BM, and the NIR range had the greatest influence on the estimation of grass CP. Both the PLSR and MLR techniques were found to be sufficiently robust for spectral modelling of aboveground BM and CP. The PLSR yielded a slightly better model than MLR. This study suggested that remote sensing techniques can be used as a rapid and reliable approach for near real-time quantitative assessment of fresh grass quality under a temperate European climate.