New urbanization (NU) and ecological welfare performance (EWP) play pivotal roles in achieving sustainable urban development, with both emphasizing social equity and environmental management. Exploring the coordinated relationship between EWP and NU is invaluable for understanding the symbiotic interplay between humans and nature. We constructed a framework to elucidate the coupling mechanism of EWP and NU from the perspective of systems theory. We quantified the levels of NU and EWP utilizing the entropy weighting method and the super-efficient SBM method, respectively. Furthermore, we assessed the degree of coupling coordination between the two using the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM). Spatial and temporal evolution analysis was conducted, and factors influencing the degree of coupling coordination between EWP and NU were explored through a spatial–temporal geographically-weighted regression model (GTWR). The results indicate: (1) During the study period, the average annual increase in EWP in the study area was 2.59%, with a narrowing relative gap between cities. Conversely, the average annual increase in the level of NU was 7.6%, with demographic and economic dimensions carrying the highest weights. (2) The type of coupling coordination between EWP and NU transitions from basic coordination to moderate coordination, with the development of EWP lagging behind that of NU. (3) City size demonstrates a positive yet diminishing trend on the coupling coordination level, with economic development exerting the greatest influence and exhibiting a "V" trend, while the impact of green technology innovation diminishes negatively. Additionally, regional disparities are significant, with city size exhibiting a negative impact in areas of high population density and low economic levels, and green technology innovation showing notable polarization characteristics in core cities. These findings serve as a foundation for fostering coordinated ecological development amid the rapid urbanization process of the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle.

Since China proposed building a national park system in 2017, the establishment of a planning system for nature reserves, with national parks as the main body, is being actively promoted around the country. Among them, scientific ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) is an important link in maintaining the ecological stability of national parks. How to zone national parks and how to improve the precision of zoning has become a new task for national parks. Therefore, this study takes the Giant Panda National Park as the study area, takes ecosystem services and land use/cover change as the research perspective, integrates the InVEST model, PLUS model and bayes belief network (BBN) model, and builds a set of ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) spatial zoning framework based on raster scale, dividing the study area into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and controlled development zone. The results showed that: (1) The study area showed an increasing trend in water conservation, soil conservation and carbon storage from 2005 to 2020, and the habitat quality index was generally high. The spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in the study area was significant, and the effect of a single factor on ecosystem services was most pronounced. (2) Large variation in area for different land uses under natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios. In both scenarios, the area of cultivated land, the area of grassland and the area of unused land decrease relative to 2020, and the area of forested land, the area of water and the area of constructed land increase relative to 2020. (3) The Giant Panda National Park is divided into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and control development zone, of which the strictly protected zone have the largest area and the best ecosystem background condition, and the control development zone have the smallest area and the worst ecosystem background condition. (4) The ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) framework provides a more refined method for the secondary zoning of nature reserves such as the Giant Panda National Park, which is valuable for the implementation of zoning and categorization management for ecological conservation in the Giant Panda National Park.