CONTEXTGrowing-finishing pig housing-system decisions involve coupled economic, animal-welfare, health, manure-management and environmental trade-offs. Deep-bedded systems are often proposed as welfare- and sustainability-oriented alternatives to conventional confinement, but adoption depends on capital investment, bedding availability, management burden, performance effects, policy incentives and market willingness to pay. Bedding-material choice can also change faster than housing investment, creating a two-timescale decision problem.OBJECTIVEThis study aimed to develop an evidence-informed two-stage evolutionary modelling framework for deep-bedded housing transition in growing-finishing pig production and to examine how short-run bedding-material choice can interact with long-run housing adoption under alternative economic, welfare-premium and manure-emission policy scenarios.METHODSPeer-reviewed and technical evidence on deep-bedded pig housing, bedding materials, welfare, performance, costs, manure handling and emissions was identified through a structured PRISMA-guided search with reference validation. Extracted evidence was used to define model structure and incremental payoff components rather than to calibrate empirical parameters. The model separates slow transition from conventional confinement to deep-bedded housing from faster selection of bedding materials among adopters. Payoffs were specified relative to confinement and included capital investment, bedding cost, labour, feed or performance, health, manure-management, space, welfare-premium and environmental-policy terms. Scenario simulations explored how welfare premiums, bedding-cost support and manure-emission mitigation incentives altered adoption dynamics and bedding-material composition.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSIllustrative simulations indicated that bedding-material choice can meaningfully alter long-run adoption dynamics. Welfare premiums or bedding-cost support alone produced limited uptake when input-cost constraints and market saturation were imposed. In contrast, integrated support combining market recognition of welfare, reduced bedding-cost pressure and manure-emission mitigation improved the feasibility of deep-bedded adoption and allowed rice husk and straw to coexist as alternative bedding strategies. The findings indicate that deep-bedded housing should be interpreted as a conditional transition pathway rather than as a universally superior or inferior production system. The framework is therefore best used as a transparent scenario-analysis tool until farm-level economic, welfare, performance and emissions data are available for empirical calibration.SIGNIFICANCEThe structured model links evidence synthesis with evolutionary decision analysis and clarifies how housing investment, bedding supply, welfare valuation and environmental policy may co-evolve in pig production. It provides a reproducible conceptual basis for policy testing, farm advisory work and future data collection on bio-based bedding and sustainable livestock housing transitions.