Agriculture production has been found to be the most sensitive sector to climate change. Northeast China (NEC) is one of the world’s major regions for spring maize production and it has been affected by climate change due to increases in temperature and decreases in sunshine hours and precipitation levels over the past few decades. In this study, the CERES-Maize model-v4.7 was adopted to assess the impact of future climatic change on the yield of spring maize in NEC and the effect of adaptation measures in two future periods, the 2030s (2021 to 2040) and the 2050s (2041 to 2060) relative to the baseline (1986 to 2005) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results showed that increased temperatures and the decreases in both the precipitation level and sunshine hours in the NEC at six representative sites in the 2030s and 2050s periods based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios would shorten the maize growth durations by (1–38 days) and this would result in a reduction in maize yield by (2.5–26.4%). Adaptation measures, including altered planting date, supplemental irrigation and use of cultivars with longer growth periods could offset some negative impacts of yield decrease in maize. For high-temperature-sensitive cultivars, the adoption of early planting, cultivar change and adding irrigation practices could lead to an increase in maize yield by 23.7–43.6% and these measures were shown to be effective adaptation options towards reducing yield loss from climate change. The simulation results exhibited the effective contribution of appropriate adaptation measures in eliminating the negative impact of future climate change on maize yield.

Climate change poses increasing risks to global food security, with maize production in vulnerable regions such as Nakuru County, Kenya, and Northwest China expected to be significantly affected. This study assessed the impacts of future climate conditions on maize growth and yield in the 2030s (2021–2040) and 2050s (2041–2060) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, relative to a 1986–2005 baseline. The CERES-Maize model was used to simulate the effects of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, and to evaluate the effectiveness of key adaptation strategies. Results showed that climate change is likely to shorten maize growing durations by up to 34 days in Nakuru County and 38 days in Northwest China, leading to yield reductions of 2.7–26.5% and 4.6–22.4%, respectively, with stronger impacts in the 2050s and under RCP 8.5. Simulations further demonstrated that adaptation measures—including adjusting planting dates, applying appropriate irrigation, and adopting improved cultivars—could increase maize yields by 20.7–38.6% in Nakuru and 17.6–28.6% in Northwest China, depending on the scenario. These findings indicate that integrating multiple adaptation strategies can substantially reduce climate-induced yield losses, emphasizing the need for investment in irrigation infrastructure, climate services, and cultivar improvement to safeguard future maize production.

Climate change poses growing risks to maize-based food systems, yet comparative evidence across climatically similar regions on different continents remains limited. This study compares climate change impacts and adaptation responses in rainfed maize systems in Nakuru County, Kenya, and Northwest China—two geographically distant but climatically similar regions. The CERES-Maize model (DSSAT v4.7), the latest version available when this study was conducted, was calibrated and validated using observed phenology and grain yield data (2005–2009) from Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Stations. Independent evaluation confirmed excellent model performance, with a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of less than 10%. The model was driven by bias-corrected climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the 2030s (2021–2040) and 2050s (2041–2060), relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Changes in climate, maize phenology, and yield were quantified, and adaptation strategies were evaluated against the baseline. Warming and increased precipitation accelerated maize development, causing yield declines of 3–27% in Nakuru County and 5–22% in Northwest China, with larger losses under RCP8.5. Adaptation measures—including planting-date adjustments, supplemental irrigation, and late-maturing cultivars—increased yields by up to 39% in Kenya and 29% in Northwest China, with combined strategies outperforming individual measures. Coordinated, multi-strategy adaptation can offset a large share of projected yield declines, offering practical pathways to sustain maize productivity under future climate change.